Tuesday, September 27, 2022

How to get away with torture, insurrection, you name it: by Jared Del Rosso

On Sept. 28, 2022, the U.S. House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection will hold another public hearing – likely the last before it releases its official report.

Through earlier hearings this past summer, the committee has shown how former President Donald Trump and close associates spread the “big lie” of a stolen election. The hearings have also shown how Trump stoked the rage of protesters who marched to the U.S. Capitol and then refused to act when they breached the building. 

 The hearings have aired in prime time and dominated news cycles. Still, polling conducted in August by Monmouth University found that around 3 in 10 Americans still believe that Trump “did nothing wrong regarding January 6.”

 As a sociologist who studies denial, I analyze how people ignore clear truths and use rhetoric to convince others to deny them, too. Politicians and their media allies have long used this rhetoric to manage scandals. Trump and his supporters’ responses to the Jan. 6 investigation are no exception.

 

Stages of denial

Commonly, people think of denial as a state of being: Someone is “in denial” when they reject obvious truths. However, denial also consists of linguistic strategies that people use to downplay their misconduct and avoid responsibility for it.

These strategies are remarkably adaptable. They’ve been used by both political parties to manage wildly different scandals. Even so, the strategies tend to be used in fairly predictable ways. Because of this, we can often see scandals unfold through clear stages of denial. 

 In my previous research on denial and U.S. torture, I analyzed how the George W. Bush administration and supporters in Congress adjusted the forms of denial they used as new allegations and evidence of abuses in the global “war on terror” became public.

For instance, after photographs of torture at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq were released in the spring of 2004, Abu Ghraib was described as a deplorable but isolated incident. At the time, there wasn’t serious public evidence of detainee abuse at other U.S. facilities.

Later revelations about the use of torture at Guantánamo Bay and secret CIA black sites changed things. The Bush administration could no longer claim that torture was an isolated incident. Officials also faced allegations that they had directly and knowingly authorized torture.  

Facing these allegations, Bush and his supporters began justifying and downplaying torture. To many Americans, torture, once deplorable, was rebranded as an acceptable national security tool: “enhanced interrogation.”

As the debate about torture shows, political responses to scandal often begin with outright denials. But rarely do they end there. When politicians face credible evidence of political misconduct, they often try other forms of denial. Instead of saying allegations are untrue, they may downplay the seriousness of allegations, justify their behavior or try to distract from it.

 It’s not just Republican administrations that use denial in this way. When the Obama administration could no longer outright deny civilian casualties caused by drone strikes, it downplayed them. In a 2013 national security speech, President Barack Obama contrasted drone strikes with the use of “conventional air power or missiles,” which he described as “far less precise.” He also justified drone strikes, arguing that “to do nothing in the face of terrorist networks would invite far more civilian casualties.”

 

Scandal strategies in play

Americans watched the Jan. 6 insurrection on TV and social media as it happened. Given the vividness of the day, outright denials of the insurrection are particularly far-fetched and marginal – though they do exist. For example, some Trump supporters have claimed that left-wing “antifa” groups breached the Capitol – a claim many rioters themselves have rejected.

 Some of Trump’s supporters in Congress and the media have repeated the claim that the insurrection was staged to discredit Trump. But given Trump’s own vocal support for the insurrectionists, supporters usually deploy more nuanced denials to downplay the day’s events.

So what happens when outright denial fails? From ordinary citizens to political elites, people often respond to allegations by “condemning the condemners,” accusing their accusers of exaggerating – or of doing worse things themselves, a strategy called “advantageous comparisons.”

 Together, these two strategies paint those making accusations as untrustworthy or hypocritical. As I show in my new book on denial , these are standard denials of those managing scandals.

“Condemning the condemners” and “advantageous comparisons” have been central to efforts to minimize the Jan. 6 insurrection, as well. Some critics of the committee downplay the insurrection by likening it to the Black Lives Matter protests, despite the fact that the vast majority were peaceful.

 “For months, our cities burned, police stations burned, our businesses were shattered. And they said nothing. Or they cheer-led for it. And they fund-raised for it. And they allowed it to happen in the greatest country in the world,” Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz said during Trump’s second impeachment. “Now, some have cited the metaphor that the president lit the flames. Well, they lit actual flames, actual fires!” 

 

On Sept. 28, 2022, the U.S. House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection will hold another public hearing – likely the last before it releases its official report.

Through earlier hearings this past summer, the committee has shown how former President Donald Trump and close associates spread the “big lie” of a stolen election. The hearings have also shown how Trump stoked the rage of protesters who marched to the U.S. Capitol and then refused to act when they breached the building.

The hearings have aired in prime time and dominated news cycles. Still, polling conducted in August by Monmouth University found that around 3 in 10 Americans still believe that Trump “did nothing wrong regarding January 6.”

As a sociologist who studies denial, I analyze how people ignore clear truths and use rhetoric to convince others to deny them, too. Politicians and their media allies have long used this rhetoric to manage scandals. Trump and his supporters’ responses to the Jan. 6 investigation are no exception.

Stages of denial

Commonly, people think of denial as a state of being: Someone is “in denial” when they reject obvious truths. However, denial also consists of linguistic strategies that people use to downplay their misconduct and avoid responsibility for it.

These strategies are remarkably adaptable. They’ve been used by both political parties to manage wildly different scandals. Even so, the strategies tend to be used in fairly predictable ways. Because of this, we can often see scandals unfold through clear stages of denial.

In my previous research on denial and U.S. torture, I analyzed how the George W. Bush administration and supporters in Congress adjusted the forms of denial they used as new allegations and evidence of abuses in the global “war on terror” became public.

For instance, after photographs of torture at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq were released in the spring of 2004, Abu Ghraib was described as a deplorable but isolated incident. At the time, there wasn’t serious public evidence of detainee abuse at other U.S. facilities.

Later revelations about the use of torture at Guantánamo Bay and secret CIA black sites changed things. The Bush administration could no longer claim that torture was an isolated incident. Officials also faced allegations that they had directly and knowingly authorized torture.

A museum display shows a wooden board the size of a person below the words 'What is torture?'
An exhibit on torture includes a section on waterboarding in the International Spy Museum in Washington in 2019. AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Facing these allegations, Bush and his supporters began justifying and downplaying torture. To many Americans, torture, once deplorable, was rebranded as an acceptable national security tool: “enhanced interrogation.”

As the debate about torture shows, political responses to scandal often begin with outright denials. But rarely do they end there. When politicians face credible evidence of political misconduct, they often try other forms of denial. Instead of saying allegations are untrue, they may downplay the seriousness of allegations, justify their behavior or try to distract from it.

It’s not just Republican administrations that use denial in this way. When the Obama administration could no longer outright deny civilian casualties caused by drone strikes, it downplayed them. In a 2013 national security speech, President Barack Obama contrasted drone strikes with the use of “conventional air power or missiles,” which he described as “far less precise.” He also justified drone strikes, arguing that “to do nothing in the face of terrorist networks would invite far more civilian casualties.”

Scandal strategies in play

Americans watched the Jan. 6 insurrection on TV and social media as it happened. Given the vividness of the day, outright denials of the insurrection are particularly far-fetched and marginal – though they do exist. For example, some Trump supporters have claimed that left-wing “antifa” groups breached the Capitol – a claim many rioters themselves have rejected.

Some of Trump’s supporters in Congress and the media have repeated the claim that the insurrection was staged to discredit Trump. But given Trump’s own vocal support for the insurrectionists, supporters usually deploy more nuanced denials to downplay the day’s events.

So what happens when outright denial fails? From ordinary citizens to political elites, people often respond to allegations by “condemning the condemners,” accusing their accusers of exaggerating – or of doing worse things themselves, a strategy called “advantageous comparisons.”

Together, these two strategies paint those making accusations as untrustworthy or hypocritical. As I show in my new book on denial , these are standard denials of those managing scandals.

“Condemning the condemners” and “advantageous comparisons” have been central to efforts to minimize the Jan. 6 insurrection, as well. Some critics of the committee downplay the insurrection by likening it to the Black Lives Matter protests, despite the fact that the vast majority were peaceful.

“For months, our cities burned, police stations burned, our businesses were shattered. And they said nothing. Or they cheer-led for it. And they fund-raised for it. And they allowed it to happen in the greatest country in the world,” Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz said during Trump’s second impeachment. “Now, some have cited the metaphor that the president lit the flames. Well, they lit actual flames, actual fires!”

Similar comparisons reappeared amid the House select committee’s hearings. One NFL coach called Jan. 6 a “dust-up” by comparison to the Black Lives Matter protests.

These forms of denial do several things at once. They direct attention away from the original focus of the scandal. They minimize Trump’s role in inciting the violence of Jan. 6 by making the claim that Democrats incite even more destructive forms of violence. And they discredit the investigation by suggesting that those leading it are hypocrites, more interested in scoring political points than in curtailing political violence

 Trickle-down denial

These denials may not sway a majority of Americans. Still, they’re consequential. Denial trickles down by providing ordinary citizens with scripts for talking about political scandals. Denials also reaffirm beliefs, allowing people to filter out information that contradicts what they hold to be true. Indeed, ordinary Americans have adapted “advantageous comparisons” to justify the insurrection. 

 This has happened before. For example, in a study of politically active Americans, sociologists Barbara Sutton and Kari Marie Norgaard found that some Americans adopted pro-torture politicians’ rhetoric – such as supporting “enhanced interrogation” and defending practices like waterboarding as a way to gather intelligence, even as they condemned “torture.”

For this reason, it’s important to recognize when politicians and the media draw from the denial’s playbook. By doing so, observers can better distinguish between genuine political disagreements and the predictable denials, which protect the most powerful by excusing their misconduct.

 

On Sept. 28, 2022, the U.S. House select committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection will hold another public hearing – likely the last before it releases its official report.

Through earlier hearings this past summer, the committee has shown how former President Donald Trump and close associates spread the “big lie” of a stolen election. The hearings have also shown how Trump stoked the rage of protesters who marched to the U.S. Capitol and then refused to act when they breached the building.

The hearings have aired in prime time and dominated news cycles. Still, polling conducted in August by Monmouth University found that around 3 in 10 Americans still believe that Trump “did nothing wrong regarding January 6.”

As a sociologist who studies denial, I analyze how people ignore clear truths and use rhetoric to convince others to deny them, too. Politicians and their media allies have long used this rhetoric to manage scandals. Trump and his supporters’ responses to the Jan. 6 investigation are no exception.

Stages of denial

Commonly, people think of denial as a state of being: Someone is “in denial” when they reject obvious truths. However, denial also consists of linguistic strategies that people use to downplay their misconduct and avoid responsibility for it.

These strategies are remarkably adaptable. They’ve been used by both political parties to manage wildly different scandals. Even so, the strategies tend to be used in fairly predictable ways. Because of this, we can often see scandals unfold through clear stages of denial.

In my previous research on denial and U.S. torture, I analyzed how the George W. Bush administration and supporters in Congress adjusted the forms of denial they used as new allegations and evidence of abuses in the global “war on terror” became public.

For instance, after photographs of torture at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq were released in the spring of 2004, Abu Ghraib was described as a deplorable but isolated incident. At the time, there wasn’t serious public evidence of detainee abuse at other U.S. facilities.

Later revelations about the use of torture at Guantánamo Bay and secret CIA black sites changed things. The Bush administration could no longer claim that torture was an isolated incident. Officials also faced allegations that they had directly and knowingly authorized torture.

A museum display shows a wooden board the size of a person below the words 'What is torture?'
An exhibit on torture includes a section on waterboarding in the International Spy Museum in Washington in 2019. AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Facing these allegations, Bush and his supporters began justifying and downplaying torture. To many Americans, torture, once deplorable, was rebranded as an acceptable national security tool: “enhanced interrogation.”

As the debate about torture shows, political responses to scandal often begin with outright denials. But rarely do they end there. When politicians face credible evidence of political misconduct, they often try other forms of denial. Instead of saying allegations are untrue, they may downplay the seriousness of allegations, justify their behavior or try to distract from it.

It’s not just Republican administrations that use denial in this way. When the Obama administration could no longer outright deny civilian casualties caused by drone strikes, it downplayed them. In a 2013 national security speech, President Barack Obama contrasted drone strikes with the use of “conventional air power or missiles,” which he described as “far less precise.” He also justified drone strikes, arguing that “to do nothing in the face of terrorist networks would invite far more civilian casualties.”

Scandal strategies in play

Americans watched the Jan. 6 insurrection on TV and social media as it happened. Given the vividness of the day, outright denials of the insurrection are particularly far-fetched and marginal – though they do exist. For example, some Trump supporters have claimed that left-wing “antifa” groups breached the Capitol – a claim many rioters themselves have rejected.

Some of Trump’s supporters in Congress and the media have repeated the claim that the insurrection was staged to discredit Trump. But given Trump’s own vocal support for the insurrectionists, supporters usually deploy more nuanced denials to downplay the day’s events.

So what happens when outright denial fails? From ordinary citizens to political elites, people often respond to allegations by “condemning the condemners,” accusing their accusers of exaggerating – or of doing worse things themselves, a strategy called “advantageous comparisons.”

Together, these two strategies paint those making accusations as untrustworthy or hypocritical. As I show in my new book on denial , these are standard denials of those managing scandals.

“Condemning the condemners” and “advantageous comparisons” have been central to efforts to minimize the Jan. 6 insurrection, as well. Some critics of the committee downplay the insurrection by likening it to the Black Lives Matter protests, despite the fact that the vast majority were peaceful.

“For months, our cities burned, police stations burned, our businesses were shattered. And they said nothing. Or they cheer-led for it. And they fund-raised for it. And they allowed it to happen in the greatest country in the world,” Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz said during Trump’s second impeachment. “Now, some have cited the metaphor that the president lit the flames. Well, they lit actual flames, actual fires!”

Similar comparisons reappeared amid the House select committee’s hearings. One NFL coach called Jan. 6 a “dust-up” by comparison to the Black Lives Matter protests.

These forms of denial do several things at once. They direct attention away from the original focus of the scandal. They minimize Trump’s role in inciting the violence of Jan. 6 by making the claim that Democrats incite even more destructive forms of violence. And they discredit the investigation by suggesting that those leading it are hypocrites, more interested in scoring political points than in curtailing political violence.

A small group of protesters in a circle, with a man holding a 'Trump won' poster in the middle.
Trump supporters and members of the far-right group Proud Boys gather during a ‘Justice for January 6th Vigil’ in New York on Jan. 6, 2022. AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura

Trickle-down denial

These denials may not sway a majority of Americans. Still, they’re consequential. Denial trickles down by providing ordinary citizens with scripts for talking about political scandals. Denials also reaffirm beliefs, allowing people to filter out information that contradicts what they hold to be true. Indeed, ordinary Americans have adapted “advantageous comparisons” to justify the insurrection.

This has happened before. For example, in a study of politically active Americans, sociologists Barbara Sutton and Kari Marie Norgaard found that some Americans adopted pro-torture politicians’ rhetoric – such as supporting “enhanced interrogation” and defending practices like waterboarding as a way to gather intelligence, even as they condemned “torture.”

For this reason, it’s important to recognize when politicians and the media draw from the denial’s playbook. By doing so, observers can better distinguish between genuine political disagreements and the predictable denials, which protect the most powerful by excusing their misconduct.

 

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Nigeria seizes donkey penises to be smuggled to Hong Kong By CHINEDU ASADU September 8, 2022

FILE- A man on a donkey moves past Government Science Secondary School where school children were kidnapped in Kankara, Nigeria, Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2020. Nigerian officials on Thursday, Sept. 8, 2022 say they have seized thousands of donkey penises that were about to be exported to Hong Kong. Sacks of the donkey male genitals were seized at the international airport in Lagos, Nigeria’s largest city. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba, File)
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FILE- A man on a donkey moves past Government Science Secondary School where school children were kidnapped in Kankara, Nigeria, Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2020. Nigerian officials on Thursday, Sept. 8, 2022 say they have seized thousands of donkey penises that were about to be exported to Hong Kong. Sacks of the donkey male genitals were seized at the international airport in Lagos, Nigeria’s largest city. (AP Photo/Sunday Alamba, File)

ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — Nigerian officials have seized thousands of donkey penises that were about to be exported to Hong Kong, an official said on Thursday.

Sacks of the donkey male genitals were seized at the international airport in Lagos, Nigeria’s largest city, Sambo Dangaladima, the Nigeria Customs Service area commander, told reporters.

The consignment was “falsely declared … as cow male genitals (but) after due examination, my export officers discovered they were donkey male genitals,” said Dangaladima. A total of 16 sacks of the genitals were seized, he said.

An investigation has been launched to find out more information about the seized items, the customs service said.

Although the seizure of donkey genitals meant for export from Nigeria is rare, donkey skins are known to be frequently exported or smuggled out of the country. In July, the Nigerian customs seized $116,000 worth of donkey skins being smuggled into the country from neighboring Niger.

Nigeria is trying to curb the export of donkey skins which has drastically diminished the country’s population of the work animals, particularly in the north. Nigerian senators in 2021 proposed to ban the killing of donkeys and the export of their skins.
 
 The lawmakers said such a ban on killing donkeys would further curb the export of donkey skins and genitals — which Nigeria prohibits — to countries like China where the skins are used in popular traditional medicines. That proposed legislation has not yet been passed into law.

“The major beneficiary in this trade is the donkey (skin) merchants in China,” Muhammad Datti, one of the federal lawmakers supporting the proposed ban, has said. “This animal is facing extinction (in Nigeria) and it is an animal you cannot breed in large numbers because of the very low rate of fertility.”

 

Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott pull from segregationists’ playbook with their anti-immigration stunts by Greta de Jong

As a historian of racism and white supremacy in the United States, I’ve become accustomed to callous actions like those of Republican governors who organized transportation for Latin American migrants to states run by their political opponents.

Governors Greg Abbott in Texas and Ron DeSantis in Florida are following the playbook of segregationists who provided one-way bus tickets to Northern cities for Black Southerners in the 1960s. At that time, the fight for racial equality was attracting national attention and support from many white Americans, inspiring some to join interracial Freedom Rides organized by civil rights groups to challenge segregation on interstate bus lines.

Then, as now, the message Southern racists aimed to send with their “reverse freedom rides” was, “Here, you love them so much, you take care of them.”

 But these acts were more than just political stunts designed to embarrass Northern political leaders who sympathized with the civil rights movement. They were part of a broader effort by white supremacists to remove Black Americans from their communities and avoid dealing with the social consequences of centuries of racial discrimination.

 Slavery, sharecropping and displacement

In the slavery and Jim Crow eras, racist policies backed by extreme violence limited access to education and economic opportunities for Black people to ensure that they had few options other than working for white employers.

Black sharecropping families in the early 20th century depended on their landlords to provide food, clothing and housing throughout the year until harvest time, when the costs of these goods were deducted from their share of the money made from sales of the crop. Plantation owners controlled the process, frequently using it to cheat workers out of their earnings and keep them perpetually in debt.

 By the 1960s, however, most of these workers were no longer needed. Mechanization eliminated millions of agricultural jobs and generated massive unemployment in rural Southern communities. Rather than invest in job training programs or other initiatives to help displaced farm laborers, political leaders enacted policies designed to drive poor people out.

Strict eligibility requirements and arbitrary administration of state public assistance programs excluded many Black families from receiving aid. State legislators were slow to take advantage of federal funds that were available to expand anti-poverty programs, arguing that these were ploys to force integration on the South. 

Government inaction left thousands of people without homes or income and exacerbated the suffering of the unemployed.

Segregationists’ ‘final solution’

Civil rights workers who came to the South to help local Black activists with desegregation and voter registration efforts were shocked by the economic deprivation that existed in the communities they visited. They reported seeing widespread hunger, dilapidated housing, unsanitary conditions, high infant mortality rates and other adverse health effects.

Raymond Wheeler, a doctor who visited Mississippi in 1967, described the state as “a vast concentration camp, in which live a great group of poor uneducated, semi-starving people, from whom all but token public support has been withdrawn.” 

 Others took the analogy to Nazi Germany further, arguing that this was white supremacists’ “final solution to the race question.” By denying Black Americans access to the basic means of survival, they left them with no options but to migrate away. 

 

Political and economic motivations

The motivations behind these policies were both political and economic. White racists understood that providing assistance to displaced workers would encourage Black people to stay in the South. That posed a threat to their power, especially after passage of the Voting Rights Act in 1965 enabled more Black people to register to vote, participate in elections and run for office.

Moreover, the candidates Black Southerners supported ran on platforms that advocated policies to ensure racial and economic justice: investment in schools and other public services, enhanced assistance for unemployed people, more affordable health care and a stronger social safety net for those who were unable to work.

 These proposals were anathema to wealthy white people who would face higher tax rates to pay for them. Warning of the consequences should Black Southerners be allowed to vote, Mississippi Citizens’ Council leader Ellett Lawrence asserted that property owners could see tax increases of “100%, 200% or more” if Black people were elected to office.

In a study of Wilcox County, Alabama, the National Education Association found that many landowners were afraid “the Negro majority will obtain control and raise land taxes to finance education and other services.” It concluded that this group showed “little taste for the anti-poverty programs of the sixties because it is more anxious to solve its problems through outmigration than it is to improve all of its people.”

 

White supremacy then and now

In many ways, Republicans like Abbott and DeSantis are the political descendants of Southern segregationists whose cruelty horrified other Americans in the 1960s.

Immigration scholars have noted how U.S. foreign policies contributed to the poverty and violence in Central and South America that migrants are fleeing. Yet rather than acknowledge this – along with assuming the moral responsibilities it entails – some GOP leaders denigrate and dehumanize refugees to win support from voters drawn to xenophobic messaging.

Watching this resurgent nativism, racism and disregard for human rights gaining strength in the 21st century is an ominous sight for anyone familiar with where these ideas have led in the past.

 

 

 

 

Thursday, September 15, 2022

How Trump Supporters Came to Hate the Police At the Capitol riot and elsewhere, MAGA Republicans have leaped from “backing the blue” to attacking law-enforcement officials.

 By:

In early August, after agents executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump’s private club in Palm Beach, Florida, allies of the former President were quick to villainize the F.B.I. Although the raid had recovered more than a hundred classified documents, at least eighteen of which were labelled “Top Secret,” Republican pundits and politicians questioned its legitimacy and denounced the federal agency as a “gang of dangerous criminals,” “wolves,” the “Gestapo,” “the K.G.B.,” and “the enemy within.” Calls for retribution spread online. A forty-two-year-old Trump supporter named Ricky Shiffer wrote, “You’re a fool if you think there’s a nonviolent solution.” Shiffer then attempted to enter an F.B.I. field office in Ohio, equipped with body armor, an assault rifle, and a nail gun. After triggering an alarm, he fled the scene in his vehicle, and a high-speed pursuit ended n a shoot-out with state troopers, during which Shiffer was killed. Three weeks later, Trump gave a speGiven the broad support that Republicans have historically enjoyed from law enforcement, their escalating hostility toward the F.B.I. may seem paradoxical. Right-wing extremists, however, have always viewed state agents as pernicious antagonists, and so the institutionalization of that mind-set should come as no surprise as the G.O.P. embraces the ideas and attitudes of its radical flank.ech in which he called F.B.I. agents “vicious monsters.”In the early days of the pandemic, as Trump supporters began mobilizing against lockdowns and other public-health measures, much of their rage was directed at law enforcement. On April 30, 2020, heavily armed conservatives descended on the Michigan state capitol, in Lansing. Facing off against police outside the barred doors of the legislature, they denounced the officers as “traitors” and “filthy rats.” Some members of the mob belonged to the Michigan Liberty Militia, whose founder later told me that he had created the outfit in 2015, after “seeing what happened with the Bundys.” Cliven Bundy, an elderly rancher in Nevada, had declared war on the government when he Bureau of Land Management impounded his cattle over his refusal to pay outstanding grazing fees. After a tense standoff in which Bundy supporters surrounded law-enforcement agents and trained rifles on them from nearby hilltops, the Bureau of Land Management released the livestock and withdrew from the area.

 Following the incident in Lansing, Mike Shirkey, the Republican Senate majority leader in Michigan, condemned the protesters as “a bunch of jackasses” who had used “intimidation and the threat of physical harm to stir up fear and rancor.” Shirkey seems to have quickly realized, though, that such principled nonpartisanship was no longer tenable in American politics. A couple of weeks later, at an anti-lockdown rally in Grand Rapids, I watched him publicly laud the Michigan Liberty Militia and assure its members, “We need you now more than ever.”

 In the weeks that followed, resentment of law enforcement intensified sharply, with anti-lockdowners perceiving individual officers as complicit in an oppressive, tyrannical order. “They deserve to wear the Nazi emblem on their sleeves!” one retiree told me of the state police who’d served a cease-and-desist order to a barber violating the governor’s suspension of personal-care services. “People like me used to fucking back you!” a veteran shouted at police handing out citations at a gathering in Lansing. “But you are trash!”

 Then, on May 25, 2020, a police officer murdered George Floyd, in Minneapolis. I left Michigan to cover the ensuing demonstrations and riots, and when I rejoined the anti-lockdowners I found that their stance toward law enforcement had undergone a dramatic reversal. That June, I attended a demonstration outside the capitol orchestrated by the Michigan Liberty Militia and a right-wing organization called the American Patriot Council. Ryan Kelley, a co-founder of the latter group, climbed the steps and pointed to several officers who were monitoring the scene. Not long ago, I had witnessed anti-lockdowners furiously berate these very same men. “We say thank you for being here,” Kelley told them now. “Thank you for standing up for our communities.”

 The volte-face reflected a larger pattern of contradiction. The original Michigan Militia was created, along with a wave of other white paramilitary groups, in 1994, following the government’s botched attempt to arrest the survivalist Randy Weaver at his cabin, on Ruby Ridge, in northern Idaho. The deadly siege, less than a year later, of the Branch Davidian compound, in Waco, Texas, and the Clinton Administration’s subsequent ban on assault weapons reinforced a right-wing narrative that white Christians were under attack. After Waco, the Michigan Militia ballooned to an estimated seven thousand members. In 1995, on the second anniversary of the Waco massacre, Timothy McVeigh, a white supremacist who’d attended several ichigan Militia meetings, detonated an enormous truck bomb in Oklahoma City, killing a hundred and sixty-eight people. The leaders of the Michigan Militia decamped to Alaska, and the organization collapsed. Over the next decade and a half, right-wing militants across the U.S. remained largely dormant. Meanwhile, under President George W. Bush, the federal government enacted unprecedented infringements on personal privacy and other individual rights while the F.B.I. employed extraordinarily invasive surveillance and investigatory techniques against law-abiding citizens, largely on the basis of their religion. The reason that none of this provoked anti-government extremists was simple: the targets of the overreach were Muslims.

 Similarly, after George Floyd was killed, conservatives repudiated the national uprising that demanded police reform and accountability, choosing instead to “back the blue.” As President Trump and his allies portrayed demands for racial justice as the sinister work of subversives intent on sowing chaos—much as segregationists had dismissed civil-rights activists as Communist agitators—backing the blue became analogous with opposing the left. After my stay in Michigan, I spent a month covering antifascist protests in Portland, Oregon, where demonstrations against the local police department were punctuated by clashes with Trump supporters, including members of the Proud Boys, who presented themselves as allies of law enforcement. As anti-lockdowners had shown in Michigan, however, this alliance was conditional and tended to break down whenever laws intruded on conservative priorities. Right-wingers rationalized the inconsistency by assigning the epithet “oath breaker” to any American in uniform who executed his duties in a manner they disliked

 About a month after the 2020 Presidential election, at a rally in Washington, D.C., I followed hundreds of Trump supporters as they marauded on the streets around the White House, assaulting pedestrians, vandalizing Black churches, and seeking to engage antifascists in fist fights. The Metropolitan Police, the Park Police, and the Capitol Police did their best to keep the two sides separate. Their interference enraged the Trump supporters, who called the officers “piggies,” “cunts,” and “pieces of shit.” Some of the insults were indistinguishable from those shouted by leftists in Portland.

 “Fuck your paychecks!”

“Fuck the blue!”

“Vigilante justice will be king!”

“Defund the police!”

 Many of these same Trump supporters returned to D.C. on January 5, 2021, and by then it was clear that law enforcement would no longer be exempt from their belligerence. Online, Proud Boys made plain that their days of backing the blue were over. “Fuck these DC Police,” one commented. “Fuck those cock suckers up. Beat them down. You dont get to return to your families.”

 The next day, I followed thousands of people up the National Mall after Trump’s incendiary speech from the Ellipse. On the west side of the Capitol, two broad flights of granite steps descended from an outdoor terrace on the third floor. In anticipation of Joe Biden’s Presidential Inauguration, huge bleachers had been erected over the steps, with a ten-thousand-square-foot platform constructed between them; the bleachers had been wrapped in ripstop tarpaulin, creating a sort of monolith that functioned as a rampart. Trump supporters climbed the steps and began cutting through the fabric with knives. Officers blocked an opening at the bottom of the bleachers, but they were outnumbered and obviously intimidated as the mob pressed against them, screaming insults, pelting them with cans and bottles. Some people shoved and punched individual officers; others linked arms and rammed their backs into a row of riot shields, their eyes squeezed shut against blasts of pepper spray. A few Trump supporters used their own chemical agents against the police. The stone slabs underfoot were smeared with blood. “You’re a bunch of oath breakers!” a man making his way along the police line barked through a bullhorn. “You’re traitors to the country!”

 Seconds later, the mob overwhelmed the officers and everyone flooded into the understructure of the bleachers. Toward the top, a temporary security wall contained three doors, one of which was instantly breached. Dozens of police stood behind the wall, using shields, nightsticks, and chemical munitions to prevent the mob from crossing the threshold. Other officers took up positions on the platform above us, firing a barrage of pepper balls into the horde. A few feet away, I recognized a corpulent man with a graying goatee and glasses leaning all his weight into the bodies directly beside me.

 It was Jason Howland, another co-founder of the American Patriot Council. At the Lansing rally on June 18th, I’d watched Howland rail against George Floyd protesters, calling them “operatives of fear and dissent.” Now he dropped his head, planted his feet, and added his considerable mass to the others churning over the police. Balanced on a crossbeam above him was his compatriot Ryan Kelley, who, six months earlier, had thanked law enforcement for “standing up for our communities.” (Neither man could be reached for comment.) In D.C., a cell-phone video captured Kelley yelling at rioters, “This is war, baby!”

 I eventually found myself in the chamber of the U.S. Senate, where Trump supporters rifled through desks, took documents, and delivered prayers and speeches from a dais that had recently been occupied by Vice-President Mike Pence. When a young Capitol Police officer with a medical mask over red facial hair entered the room, he approached a rioter who had been shot with a rubber bullet and was bleeding from his cheek. “You good, sir?” the officer asked with concern. “You need medical attention?”

 I’m good, thank you,” the rioter answered.In the moment, I attributed the officer’s incongruously affable demeanor to the fact that he was by himself and perhaps afraid. But shortly thereafter, two more Capitol Police officers arrived. One was a sergeant with a shaved head whose uniform was half untucked and missing buttons, his necktie ripped and crooked. A man wearing a TRUMP beanie with a furry pompom approached him. “Got a little bit of a situation?” the man asked jokingly. He was holding a gold-tasselled American flag over his shoulder. Sticking out of the back pocket of his jeans were rolled-up documents that I had seen him take from a senator’s desk.

 I’ve had better days,” the sergeant said.

“You all right, man?”

“Yeah, I’m good.”

“You sure?”

The sergeant pointed at his colleague. “I feel better than he looks.”

The officer was covered with a white powdery substance, as if a sack of flour had been dumped on him. “Some dude got me with a fire extinguisher,” he said.

 “I think I ate a whole container of pepper spray,” the sergeant added, with similar good cheer. It was as if they were recounting some long-ago, amusing experience that had nothing to do with the rioters in the Senate chamber.

 t is tempting to understand such bizarre scenes as part of a “de-escalation” strategy. The problem with this is that there was no strategy, to de-escalate or otherwise. “We were on our own, totally on our own,” an officer later recalled. In the absence of guidance, officers had to decide for themselves how to engage with the mob. One posed for pictures with rioters inside the building. A video appears to show others allowing a restive crowd to pass through a perimeter on the east side of the grounds. A lieutenant was filmed wearing a MAGA hat and coördinating with Oath Keepers to help his beleaguered colleagues exit the building. In the footage, the crowd cheers and a woman gives the officers a hug. (Later, several members of law enforcement would be placed under investigation and reprimanded for their conduct. According to the Capitol Police, none of the inquiries found that officers had “aided the rioters before or during the attack.”)

 My impression was that a simple contract—sometimes tacit, sometimes explicit—governed most interactions between Trump supporters and law enforcement on January 6th: the insurrectionists would attack only those officers who stood in their way, while bestowing the usual respect and deference on those who stood down. Still, the vicious brutality encountered by officers who fought back makes the passivity of some of their peers all the more confounding. I’d been in the Senate chamber for about twenty minutes when a large phalanx of Metropolitan Police entered. The Trump supporters were suddenly corralled, with no avenue of escape. Assuming that everyone in the chamber would be detained and that our phones would be confiscated, I withdrew my wallet and prepared to show my press card. But no arrests were made. No one was searched. Nobody questioned. The red-bearded officer approached a rioter and spoke to him privately, after which the rioter announced, “We gotta go, guys, otherwise we’re goin’ in handcuffs.” As we filed out through the main door, the sergeant with the shaved head told us, “Be safe. We appreciate you being peaceful.”

 The corridor outside was also full of police. “This way,” one of them said, extending his arm in invitation. Another officer led us to a staircase. His hair was dishevelled, he looked exhausted, and he was limping. A Proud Boy wearing biker gloves and a black-and-yellow flannel kept telling him, “We support you guys, O.K.? We support you guys. We support you guys.”

“Thank you,” the battered officer replied.

I followed the Proud Boy to an emergency exit and out of the building. Police in riot gear stood beneath a portico; as I filmed them with my phone while walking backward, a female officer (who had no way of knowing that I was a member of the press) jabbed her finger in the air, pointing emphatically at something behind me. I turned to look. Had she spotted some of the purloined documents? Was she signalling a colleague?

No. There was a low step, and she was worried that I might trip.

 Strategic forbearance is one thing. But can we really attribute such outright solicitude, in the midst of what one officer called a “medieval battle,” to some tactical shrewdness intended to beguile a volatile adversary? I don’t think so. I think that the complex, often contradictory actions of officers on January 6th flowed from their complex, often contradictory relationship with that adversary. The day after the attack, one member of the Capitol Police sent a private message on Facebook to an insurrectionist who had admitted on that platform that he had entered the building. Introducing himself as someone “who agrees with your political stance,” the officer advised him to delete the confession.

 “Just looking out!” he explained.

More than eight thousand D.C. officers belong to the Fraternal Order of Police, which enthusiastically endorsed Trump twice. In 2019, the organization’s D.C. branch held its annual holiday party at the Trump International Hotel. (The decision was controversial and the event poorly attended.) Nor is there any reason to assume that the Capitol Police or the Metropolitan Police was immune from the insidious bigotry, or infiltration by white supremacists, that plagued other police departments. In a 2001 class-action lawsuit, more than two hundred and fifty Black officers claimed that “racial discrimination is rampant in the ranks of the U.S. Capitol Police,” and subsequent lawsuits have made similar allegations. (The Capitol Police have disputed many of the claims.) Two months after January 6th, a Jewish congressional staffer photographed a copy of “The Protocols of the Elders of Zion”—a century-old anti-Semitic text that influenced some of the very Americans who spearheaded the insurrection—on a Capitol Police officer’s desk

 Numerous law-enforcement agents and their relatives participated in the attack. Thomas Webster, a retired N.Y.P.D. officer, was filmed assaulting a member of the Metropolitan Police with a metal pipe and calling him a “fucking piece of shit.” (Webster was sentenced to ten years in prison.) A grand jury indicted Alan Hostetter, a former chief of police for La Habra, California, on multiple charges related to the siege. “People at the highest levels need to be made an example of with an execution or two or three,” Hostetter had declared, in a YouTube video. (He has pleaded not guilty.) Two officers from Virginia took selfies inside the building. One of them, Thomas Robertson, posted on social media, “The right IN ONE DAY took the f***** U.S. Capitol. Keep poking us.” (Robertson was convicted of five felonies and sentenced to more than seven years in prison.) Scott Fairlamb, the son of a New Jersey state trooper, was sentenced to three and half years after being filmed outside the Capitol punching an officer in the head. Fairlamb’s brother was a senior agent in the Secret Service who had led Michelle Obama’s security detail. A lawyer representing Fairlamb told HuffPost that his client donated to law-enforcement charities and shared “the same ideological viewpoint” as the police.

 One way to think about January 6th is as the consummation, in real time, of a tumultuous shift between two distinct eras of conservatism. Before 2020, most conservatives celebrated law enforcement as the protectors of a system that was, on balance, reliably favorable to their interests. By the end of 2020, after the lockdowns and the election, many conservatives had come to see that system the same way that right-wing extremists did—as corrupt and tyrannical, perhaps even satanic. At the same time, so long as Trump was still in power and weaponizing law enforcement against leftists, neither conservatives nor the police were forced to confront what this meant for their alliance. That reckoning could no longer be avoided on January 6th, and it is understandable that people on both sides of the line persisted in respecting the terms of a compact that was now obsolete.The platoon members who were cheered and hugged by Trump supporters seconds after being assaulted by them must have experienced the same disorientation as some victims of abusive relationships, and one wonders how many officers at the Capitol believed—or wanted to believe—that the people trying to kill them also loved them. During testimony before a Senate committee, the officer Harry Dunn described a rioter who “displayed what looked like a law-enforcement badge, and told me, ‘We’re doing this for you.’ ” As if to memorialize the dissonance, Trump, a couple of minutes after I exited the Capitol, tweeted, “Remember, WE are the Party of Law & Order.”

 After leaving the Capitol, I followed several people around a corner, to the north end of the building. Incredibly, a renewed offensive was being mounted there, and some of the intruders who had just been politely escorted from the Senate chamber—including the man with the TRUMP beanie and the rolled-up documents in his back pocket—joined the attack. Using metal barricades as battering rams, the mob charged officers guarding an entrance and screamed at them, “Choose a side!” and “We stood behind you—you stand behind us!”

 At some point, a gaunt and somewhat tremulous officer from the Metro Transit Police stepped forward and asked to borrow a rioter’s megaphone. “Ladies and gentlemen, can I have your attention, please?” he said. The obsequious request was met with jeers and insults. Nevertheless, the transit officer persisted: “I hear you. President Bush also said this after 9/11. ‘We hear you.’ ”

 This was a remarkable reference. Three days after the attack on the World Trade Center, Bush had visited Ground Zero. Standing amid the ruins, he had borrowed a megaphone to address the firefighters, paramedics, and other rescue workers clearing debris. “I can hear you,” Bush told them. “The rest of the world hears you. And the people who knocked these buildings down will hear all of us soon.” It was an expression of solidarity with the victims of a grave injustice, and it was a vow to the bereaved that their dispossession would be avenged. We now know that Bush was also uniting the country against an imaginary enemy, honoring American patriots while invoking their injury to legitimize a bogus war. His audience had chanted, “U.S.A.”

 In May, 2020, when I had arrived in Minneapolis after a nine-hour drive from Michigan, I had gone directly to the Third Precinct house—the station to which Derek Chauvin, the officer who’d killed George Floyd, belonged. When I got there, the building was on fire. As I stood in the street watching flames leap from the second-story windows, a young Black resident of the city remarked, “Hopefully, they hear us.

 During the seven months that had passed since then, I’d attended many protests for racial justice—yet the transit officer standing before the Trump supporters was the first member of law enforcement I had seen offering an assurance that he had heard anyone. Black protesters in Minneapolis had taken heed of the indiscriminate violence with which the police and military responded to their appeals (at least eighty-nine people, ranging in age from fifteen to seventy-seven, went to the hospital); they had believed President Trump when he threatened their lives (“When the looting starts, the shooting starts”); and they had reasonably surmised that demonstrating came with a risk of being killed. Conversely, on January 6th, Trump’s followers also listened to him (“We have truth and justice on our side”), took heed of the military’s absence and of law enforcement’s restraint, and reasonably surmised that they could proceed with impunity.

 None of the insurrectionists I observed appeared to experience fear—certainly nothing resembling the physical terror that I had seen police and soldiers elicit during Black Lives Matter protests following George Floyd’s death. One day in Minneapolis, I was following peaceful marchers when troops in armored Humvees surrounded and brutalized them with less-lethal munitions. Some of the marchers panicked, fearing that the bullets were real. “Don’t shoot!” a young Black man pleaded, raising his arms. “Let us leave!” (Minutes later, a rubber bullet struck him squarely in the chest.) The Trump supporters who attacked the Capitol, on the other hand, assumed that there was a limit to what could be done to them, and one ingratiating law-enforcement official after another—from the transit officer to the sergeant with the shaved head—confirmed this assumption.

 In April, 2021, an inspector general testifying before a House committee revealed another likely reason that so many insurrectionists felt so undaunted: the Capitol Police had not availed itself of sting-ball grenades or of 40-millimetre launchers capable of shooting beanbags, sponge bullets, and other large-bore projectiles, both of which had been regularly deployed against racial-justice protesters across the country over the summer. (A sergeant’s body camera in Minneapolis recorded him telling officers, “You got to hit them with the forties.”) Such weapons “would have helped us that day to enhance our ability to protect the Capitol,” the inspector general explained. Nonetheless, an assistant deputy chief of police had forbidden their use, because of their potential to “cause life-altering injury and/or death.” While I was under the bleachers, the rounds that rained down on us, whatever calibre they were, did nothing to repel or even discourage the attackers from crossing that critical choke point. “Is that all you got?” one Trump supporter had taunted. The answer was no—but that was all they were willing to use. (The sole exception was Ashli Babbitt, who was fatally shot while breaching a lobby adjacent to the House chambers, where lawmakers were fleeing. The officer who fired the round would be condemned by Trump and his supporters.)

 Even if the docility of some law-enforcement members on January 6th could be chalked up to a good-faith attempt at de-escalation, it was a profound misjudgment that only emboldened many insurrectionists. After the transit officer told the Trump supporters that he heard them, he went on to say, “We are not here to kick you out and use force. That is not why we are here.”

 “We have guns, too, motherfuckers!” a man yelled over him. “With a lot bigger rounds!” Another added, “If we have to tool up, it’s gonna be over! We’re coming heavy!” I also overheard a woman talking on her phone. “We need to come back with guns,” she said. “One time with guns, and then we’ll never have to do this again.”

 Two days earlier, the department had released a statement telling Proud Boys and antifascists that it would not “keep people apart” should they choose to assault one another. The hands-off policy, which effectively assured the Proud Boys that they would receive a wide berth to commit violence when they came to town, underscored how little January 6th had changed law-enforcement blindness to the threat posed by right-wing extremists. At the same time, the efforts of Trump and his allies to diminish and distort the events of January 6th have precluded any meaningful reckoning with right-wing extremism, and have all but guaranteed that it will continue to metastasize, irrespective of the specific groups, movements, and causes through which it finds expression.

 On the night of January 6th, after the Capitol had been secured, Trump tweeted, “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots.” The statement was not only a defense of the insurrection and a tribute to its perpetrators; it was also a threat. This is what happens; this is what will happen. Since then, numerous conservative politicians have more or less promised violence if Democrats continue to win office—or if Trump is held accountable for any of his alleged crimes. The Arizona state representative Wendy Rogers tweeted in July, 2021, “The election fraud will either be exposed and stopped and many people will go to jail or they will keep doing it ushering in a new era of 1776.” That October, at a conservative conference in Idaho, an audience member asked, “How many elections are they gonna steal before we kill these people?” On Twitter, a Republican lawmaker responded, “The question is fair.” Senator Lindsey Graham recently told Fox News that “there’ll be riots in the streets” if Trump is prosecuted for illegally removing classified material from the White House. Trump swiftly shared Graham’s comments on Truth Social, his social-media company.

Hoping to stave off an encroaching despair on the morning after the Capitol attack, I caught a taxi to the Lincoln Memorial. When I arrived, the monument was closed. Squad cars were pulling up. Officers expelled a braying mob.

Many of the people wore red MAGA hats and TRUMP 2020 shirts. I asked someone what had happened. It seemed that a woman had been posing for pictures with an American flag and a Gadsden flag—DON’T TREAD ON ME below a hissing snake, on a yellow field—when an officer advised her that such displays were not allowed. (She later claimed that the officer had grabbed the flags away from her.) A fracas had ensued. Now the Trump supporters converged at the bottom of the steps and began calling the officers Nazis, Marxists, and pigs. Young men in Oxford shirts waved their middle fingers. “Aren’t we the pussies?” a little bald man asked others in the crowd. “Honestly, we’re not overrunning them?”

 “That’s when they just start executing people,” a petite, bespectacled woman said, glaring hatefully at the police.

 It occurred to me that some of the officers impassively absorbing this abuse probably had friends in the hospital. Roughly a hundred and fifty law-enforcement agents had been wounded the previous day. Some had sustained brain injuries. According to the Capitol Police Labor Committee, one had suffered “two cracked ribs and two smashed spinal disks.” Another was stabbed with “a metal fence stake.” Now, though, it was not the police but the Trump supporters who were outraged.

 The woman with the Gadsden flag was a pastor from Los Angeles. “How dare they?” she demanded. “What is wrong with this country? This is not my America. I don’t understand.”

That made two of us. I could think of only one question to ask. “Where do we go from here?”

The pastor wiped her tears. “I will tell you this,” she sobbed. “I will not turn the other cheek to what’s not right. This is not right. This is not right.” ♦

 

Monday, September 12, 2022

Would a Republican govenor do this? Gov Wolf: Free breakfast program coming to Pa schools by: Aaron Marrie

HARRISBURG, Pa (WTAJ) — On Friday, Governor Tom Wolf announced a free breakfast program for 1.7 million children across Pennsylvania schools.

The $21.5 million plan will provide free school breakfast to students across the state throughout the 2022-23 school year. The program is set to begin on Oct. 1.

“It is completely unacceptable for a child to start the day hungry,” Gov. Wolf said. “I’m taking hunger off the table for Pennsylvania kids by creating the Universal Free Breakfast Program. Regardless of whether or not they qualify for free or reduced meals normally, every student enrolled in public or private schools will have the opportunity to feed their belly before they feed their mind this school year.”

The Universal Free Breakfast Program will cover public schools, intermediate units, charter schools, career and technology schools and childcare institutions that participate in the National School Lunch and School Breakfast Program. The $21.5 million is being funded by the 2021 School Food Services General Fund Appropriation.

Schools that are interested but are currently not a part of the National School Lunch and School Breakfast programs can find additional information online.

 

Wednesday, September 7, 2022

Legal work-related immigration has fallen by a third since 2020, contributing to US labor shortages byJose Ivan Rodriguez-Sanchez Research Scholar of Economics, Rice University

With Americans having fewer children and the nation’s labor force getting older, many employers in manufacturing, aviation and other industries are having trouble finding enough workers.

The gap between the demand for labor and its supply was already forming in 2017. By 2018, the U.S. economy had increasingly more job openings than unemployed workers. That gap has widened during the COVID-19 pandemic as more people have died, retired early or simply dropped out of the job market.

By July 2022, as the pandemic’s effects on the workplace were easing, the U.S. had 11.2 million job openings but only 5.7 million unemployed workers who might fill them.

 I’m a scholar of immigration and economics who researches a trend that’s driving labor shortages: declining numbers of immigrants allowed to legally work in the U.S. When I study these numbers, I see an important opportunity to resolve labor shortages that are wreaking economic havoc.

 

With Americans having fewer children and the nation’s labor force getting older, many employers in manufacturing, aviation and other industries are having trouble finding enough workers.

The gap between the demand for labor and its supply was already forming in 2017. By 2018, the U.S. economy had increasingly more job openings than unemployed workers. That gap has widened during the COVID-19 pandemic as more people have died, retired early or simply dropped out of the job market.

By July 2022, as the pandemic’s effects on the workplace were easing, the U.S. had 11.2 million job openings but only 5.7 million unemployed workers who might fill them.

I’m a scholar of immigration and economics who researches a trend that’s driving labor shortages: declining numbers of immigrants allowed to legally work in the U.S. When I study these numbers, I see an important opportunity to resolve labor shortages that are wreaking economic havoc.

How The Conversation is different: We explain without oversimplifying.

Work visas

An estimated 45 million people living in the United States, roughly 14% of the population, were born elsewhere. About one in six U.S. workers is an immigrant.

Some of these foreign-born workers are legally employed on a temporary basis with an array of visas that make it possible to obtain jobs that run the gamut from software designers to apple pickers.

 In some cases, these employees can obtain legal permanent residency – often called “a green card.” Some temporary work visas last longer than 12 months, so the number of workers with authorization is higher than the number of visas issued in that year. H-1B visas, which require a high level of education for fields like computer programming, last three years and can be renewed for another three.

The government issued a record 813,330 temporary employment-based visas in 2019. The total fell by about a third to 566,000 in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic got underway, and the numbers were basically flat in 2021 at 566,001 – the first year of Joe Biden’s presidency.

Of course it’s important that the government not issue visas in such a way that foreign workers depress wages or lead to the dismissal of gainfully employed Americans.

These lower wages could occur in the short run, but most empirical studies show there are long-term benefits in terms of what native-born people earn when immigration rises.

 US issues fewer foreign-worker visas in COVID-19 pandemic

The number of foreigners authorized to temporarily work in the U.S. fell sharply in the 2020 fiscal year amid immigration restrictions imposed by the Trump administration as the coronavirus pandemic began. This kind of visa issuance remained below pre-pandemic levels in 2021, after President Joe Biden took office

 Taking a bite out of the economy

The sharp reduction in the number of temporary visas for foreign-born workers in 2020 and 2021 harmed the U.S. economy. Based on my own calculations, the total cost was around 0.4% per year of total gross domestic product – at least $82 billion per year in 2020 and 2021.

Immigration restrictions affected far more people, however, including those who were unable to obtain a green card because of the closure of embassies and consulates. All told, these policies resulted in an estimated 2 million fewer working-age immigrants in the U.S. in 2020 and 2021. 

 Including those additional losses nearly triples the economic cost of U.S. immigration restrictions to about 1.1% per year of U.S. GDP.

Unless the U.S. reverses course and issues more work-related visas, I estimate that the worker shortage will double to over 4 million by 2030. My calculations also suggest this will shave about 4.3% off of GDP, on average, annually for the next eight years. Adding that all up, that would amount to about $9 trillion in lost economic output. 

 

Labor shortages

Labor shortages are especially severe today in certain industries that rely heavily on immigrants as employees.

For example, in 2020 foreign-born workers accounted for 39% of the farming, fishing and forestry workforce, 30% of all people employed in construction and extraction, 26% of everyone working in computer science and mathematics and 22% in health care support.

As a result, these industries are facing unprecedented challenges in trying to find workers to fill open jobs.

 If these labor shortages continue, I’m certain that they will keep hurting job markets, supply chains and productivity as companies have to pay their employees more and then increase prices due in part to those higher labor costs.

The labor force participation rate, which measures the number of people in the job market as a percentage of the total working-age population, has been hovering around the lowest levels seen since the 1970s as more U.S. workers drop out of the job market. After plunging to 60% in 2020, it bounced back partially. The rate stood at 62.2% in July 2022.

 

Feasible fix

Of course, there are other factors besides a lack of foreign-born visas issued that are responsible for the shortage of workers.

But none are easy to resolve. It’s hard for the government to increase the share of adults who are working, and there’s little that can be done in the short term about the country’s aging workforce – the result of a long-term fertility decline.

Even if the political hurdles can be high, I believe boosting the number of immigrants allowed to legally work in the United States is an important way that the authorities can ease labor shortages.