Friday, August 16, 2024

Meta shutters tool used to fight disinformation, despite outcry by Dara Kerr

 

Meta has been bombarded by academics, researchers, politicians and regulators about a tool called CrowdTangle, which most people probably haven’t heard of. It’s been used to investigate the spread of violence, political disinformation and false narratives on Facebook and Instagram.

On Wednesday, less than three months before the U.S. election, Meta is shutting CrowdTangle down.

“Against this backdrop, Meta decided to kill one of the best tools that civil society had to monitor and report on the hate speech and election interference that is almost certain to proliferate on its platforms,” said Brandi Geurkink, executive director of the Coalition for Independent Technology Research.

 

More than 50,000 people have signed letters and petitions urging Meta to halt its plans, or at least wait six months, according to the Mozilla Foundation.

Regulators, including the European Commission and a bipartisan group of U.S. senators and Congress members, say shuttering CrowdTangle now could be risky – given how useful it’s been to help researchers identify security threats and misinformation, especially around elections.

Meta’s new tool is more limited

CrowdTangle has given researchers and journalists a glimpse into how Facebook and Instagram’s algorithms work and how false information goes viral. But, over the past few years, Meta began to limit the tool and stop accepting new users.

A Meta spokeswoman declined to comment on CrowdTangle shutting down, but did point NPR to a blog post about a new tool called Meta Content Library. The company says the Content Library is more comprehensive and provides a better picture of what is happening on its platforms.

 

Nick Clegg, Meta’s president of global affairs told Axios that he hopes people will see the Content Library as "a very good-faith effort," that could "lead to a flurry of new and interesting research."

Meta requires researchers to apply to access the Content Library and they must be from “qualified academic or nonprofit institutions who are pursuing scientific or public interest research.” This access is far more limited than what Meta offered with CrowdTangle.

Hundreds of researchers, including Geurkink, say the Content Library “isn’t yet sufficient.” She said she welcomes improvements to the new tool, but “they hardly fill the gaping hole that is left by CrowdTangle’s shutdown.”

 

Researchers mourn the loss of CrowdTangle

CrowdTangle was created by Brandon Silverman and Matt Garmur in 2011, who offered it to digital publishers like BuzzFeed, CNN and Vox. Facebook bought it in 2016 and let researchers and other media partners use it for free. It was the first time a major social network provided a tool to the public to monitor trends in real time.

Researchers and journalists quickly found that it was extremely useful in tracking viral false content, including Russian influence operations, accounts linked to the QAnon conspiracy theory and COVID misinformation.

 

Over the years, CrowdTangle has been used by hundreds of other academics, journalists and companies, who’ve covered topics that range from how the Islamic State has maintained social media accounts to best practices for comedians on Facebook.

The Coalition for Independent Technology Research published a website on Tuesday called “RIP CrowdTangle,” which will memorialize the work that was done with the tool. Other researchers and watchdogs are also mourning the loss of CrowdTangle.

“Shuttering this critical tool in another brazen blow to transparency across its platforms,” the Real Facebook Oversight Board, a coalition of academics and civil rights groups, said in a statement. “RIP Crowdtangle.”

Texas judge steps aside in Elon Musk's X case against advertisers by Bobby Allyn

 

A U.S. District Judge in Texas has recused himself from a lawsuit filed by Elon Musk’s X days after NPR drew scrutiny to the judge’s investment in Tesla and questions about Musk using the court to engage in “forum-shopping.”

But O’Connor, according to his most recent publicly available financial disclosure, also invests in Unilever, one of the defendants in Musk’s suit against a coalition of brands. The judge reported receiving a dividend from the company in 2022 of $15,000 or less.

In O’Connor’s two-sentence order stepping aside from the Musk case, he did not offer an explanation.

 

Last week, Musk filed a lawsuit against the World Federation of Advertisers and member companies CVS, Orsted, Unilever and Mars, noting the matter will be heard by another federal judge in North Texas, without explaining the decision further.

The lawsuit claimed brands illegally conspired against X to deprive the company of advertising revenue. The case has now been re-assigned to U.S. District Judge Judge Kinkeade, court records show.

According to O’Connor’s most recent publicly available financial disclosures, he owns up to $50,000 in stock in Tesla, Musk’s electric vehicle company. He also invests in and has profited from Unilever, raising questions about the judge’s ability to preside over the advertiser case impartially.

It is the second lawsuit Musk filed against a critic in O’Connor’s court based in Fort Worth, even though none of the parties are based in Texas.

In November, Musk’s X sued watchdog group Media Matters over reports the group released highlighting white nationalist content appearing next to brands that advertised on the platform.

In that case, O’Connor has issued sweeping rulings in favor of Musk, including granting Musk’s lawyers wide latitude to request hundreds of pages of documents from the nonprofit, a process known as legal discovery.

 

This was approved before O’Connor even ruled on whether the Musk case against Media Matters even had any merit.

For five months, Media Matters has been waiting for O’Connor to rule on a motion to dismiss, typically the first legal hurdle a lawsuit must clear before it proceeds. It has not yet been considered. Meanwhile, the nonprofit has spent millions of dollars complying with document requests its lawyers have compared to “harassment.”

O’Connor stepping down from the advertiser case follows news that Musk’s suit is already squeezing one of the lawsuit’s central players.

 

The brand safety initiative the Global Alliance for Responsible Media, known as GARM, announced it was folding in response to Musk’s suit.

GARM is led by the World Federation of Advertisers, which Musk is suing. In a statement, the federation said Musk’s legal action “caused a distraction and significantly drained its resources and finances.”

The alliance was created in the wake of a 2019 video livestreamed on Facebook of a mass shooting in Christchurch, New Zealand. The effort was a way to make social media ad placement more transparent and to have a collective voice to stand up against violent and extreme content on platforms.

Former police chief faces a felony charge in the raid of a Kansas newspaper by AP News

 

TOPEKA, Kan. — A former central Kansas police chief who led a raid last year on a weekly newspaper has been charged with felony obstruction of justice and is accused of persuading a potential witness for an investigation into his conduct of withholding information from authorities.

The single charge against former Marion Police Chief Gideon Cody alleges that he knowingly or intentionally influenced the witness to withhold information on the day of the raid of the Marion County Record and the home of its publisher or sometime within the following six days. The charge was filed Monday in state district court in Marion County and is not more specific about Cody's alleged conduct.

 

However, a report from two special prosecutors last week referenced text messages between Cody and the business owner after the raid. The business owner has said that Cody asked her to delete text messages between them, fearing people could get the wrong idea about their relationship, which she said was professional and platonic.

Cody justified the raid by saying he had evidence the newspaper, Publisher Eric Meyer and one of its reporters, Phyllis Zorn, had committed identity theft or other computer crimes in verifying the authenticity of a copy of the business owner's state driving record provided to the newspaper by an acquaintance. The business owner was seeking Marion City Council approval for a liquor license and the record showed that she potentially had driven without a valid license for years. However, she later had her license reinstated.

 

The prosecutors' report concluded that no crime was committed by Meyer, Zorn or the newspaper and that Cody reached an erroneous conclusion about their conduct because of a poor investigation. The charge was filed by one of the special prosecutors, Barry Wilkerson, the top prosecutor in Riley County in northeastern Kansas.

The Associated Press left a message seeking comment at a possible cellphone number for Cody, and it was not immediately returned Tuesday. Attorneys representing Cody in a federal lawsuit over the raid are not representing him in the criminal case and did not immediately know who was representing him.

 

Police body-camera footage of the August 2023 raid on the publisher's home shows his 98-year-old mother, Joan Meyer, visibly upset and telling officers, “Get out of my house!” She co-owned the paper, lived with her son and died of a heart attack the next afternoon.

The prosecutors said they could not charge Cody or other officers involved in the raid over her death because there was no evidence they believed the raid posed a risk to her life. Eric Meyer has blamed the stress of the raid for her death.

Thursday, August 15, 2024

Relativity: the oldest physics principle that’s still correct by Ethan Siegel

 The original principle of relativity, proposed by Galileo way back in the early 1600s, remains true in its unchanged form even today. 

 

 When most people think of the term relativity, the first person who comes to mind is Albert Einstein. Indeed, Einstein’s two theories of relativity — the special theory of relativity, put forth in 1905, and the general theory of relativity, put forth a decade later in 1915 — represent a revolutionary way of viewing our Universe. Prior to Einstein, it was thought that both space and time were absolute quantities: the same for all observers, regardless of their location or of their motion through the Universe. It was thought that the amount of time that passed for anyone, anywhere, would be universally agreed upon, as would the distance between any two points or the physical size of solid objects. Only with the arrival of Einstein was it recognized that even quantities such as space and time weren’t absolute at all, but were instead experienced relative to the observer’s point of view.

 

But Einstein didn’t originate the concept of relativity at all. In fact, relativity can trace its origins back to nearly 400 years ago: when it was put forth by a scientist who obsessively studied the behavior of objects that moved long before even Newton’s laws of motion: Galileo Galilei. Relativity wasn’t about space or time when it was considered by Galileo, but instead about a much simpler concept: the detectability of motion. What was the difference between the two scenarios of:

  • someone who was in a closed room, with no window to the outside, that was absolutely stationary with respect to everything around them,
  • versus someone who was in an identical closed room, with no window to the outside, that was in constant, unchanging motion in some direction relative to the outside world?

 Galileo’s great realization, encapsulated in the principle of relativity, is that there was no difference at all. This core principle of physics, first written down in 1632, remains unchanged, even to the present day.

 

Galileo’s thought process that led him to the principle of relativity was remarkable, yet simple at the same time. Galileo made many inquiries into motion over his life. His most famous discoveries were arguably astronomical, relating to the motions of objects in the heavens. He was familiar with the ideas of Copernicus, and was partial to the notion of a heliocentric Solar System, where Earth was just one of several ordinary planets — along with Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn — that all orbited the Sun. When it came to the daily motion of the objects in Earth’s sky, however, Galileo noted that there were two possible explanations for why the Sun always appeared to rise in the east, pass overhead, and then set in the west, consistent with the observations that the planets, our Moon, the stars, as well as the entire night sky appeared to rotate about Earth’s north celestial pole.

  1. It was possible that the entirety of the heavens — along with all of the objects that were in it — were rotating overhead, while the Earth remained stationary beneath it.
  2. But it was also possible that the heavens themselves were stationary, and that it was actually planet Earth itself that was in motion: rotating about its axis, which gave the appearance of a “rotating sky” to an observer here on Earth.

Galileo noted that there was no experiment that one could reasonably perform here on Earth that would allow someone on the Earth to tell these two scenarios apart. Whether the Earth itself was stationary or whether the planet itself was spinning on its axis, rapidly, completing a full rotation once-per-day, was not something that someone on the Earth was capable of discerning by simply being here on the Earth itself.

 Consider, for example, the popular, legendary (and perhaps apocryphal) experiment performed by Galileo: dropping balls off of the Leaning Tower of Pisa. If the Earth were stationary, it’s easy to predict what would happen. Galileo stands atop the tower, holding a ball, while the tower stands, unmoving, upon the stationary Earth. When Galileo drops the ball, it simply falls straight down, in a straight line, with its horizontal position never deviating from its initial location above the ground; only its vertical position would change as Galileo releases it, and gravity pulls it down.

 

But, now, what would happen if the Earth were rotating?

You might think that, if the Earth were spinning about its axis, that when Galileo dropped this ball, the ball would then be in free-fall, while the tower — anchored into the Earth — would rotate along with the Earth itself. If this occurred, perhaps:

  • the ball would fall straight down, in a straight line, toward the center of the Earth,
  • while the tower would continue rotating along with the Earth itself,
  • which would result in the ball appearing to “separate” from the tower at the rate of Earth’s rotation.

Noting that the Earth was a sphere about 40,000 kilometers in circumference, that it rotated once every 24 hours, and that Pisa, where the tower was located, was roughly halfway between the equator and the North Pole, it’s fairly easy to calculate that the tower itself is in motion at around 330 meters-per-second relative to the center of the Earth. Since it takes a ball dropped from the (55-meter-tall) tower a little more than 3 seconds to hit the ground, the fact that the ball appears to fall straight down, rather than winding up over 1000 meters away, you might be tempted to conclude that this experiment proved that the Earth wasn’t rotating.

 Many of Galileo’s contemporaries thought in precisely this fashion. Knowing that the Earth was a sphere with a well-measured circumference, they could calculate what rate the planet — and hence, everything on it — would be moving at if we were, in fact, spinning about our axis. They reasoned that once Galileo released that ball, the ball would be compelled to fall down to the surface of the Earth: straight down, and therefore the rotating Earth should carry the tower away from the ball. Since this wasn’t observed, that implied (to them) that the Earth couldn’t be rotating.

 

But Galileo thought about things differently: in relative terms to one another. Sure, the tower might be moving at around 330 meters-per-second relative to the center of the Earth, but so was everything else in this problem:

  • the ground of Pisa itself,
  • the tower,
  • Galileo, standing atop the tower,
  • the surrounding atmospheric air,
  • and the ball in Galileo’s hand.

When Galileo releases this ball, it keeps its memory of that original motion across the surface of the Earth; nothing impacts or changes it when Galileo releases it, and so it doesn’t “separate” from the tower at all. Instead, it simply falls straight down. In fact, the only difference that could potentially be detected would be the fact that, since it’s anchored into the rotating Earth, the “top” of the tower moves slightly faster than the “bottom” of the tower, as it traces out a slightly greater-circumference circle around the Earth as the Earth rotates. The relative motion of the ball, once dropped, with respect to the bottom of the tower would be tiny — about 1.5 millimeters, total — or small enough that it would be unmeasurable with the technology available to Galileo at the time.

 

Why would Galileo think so differently than the rest of his contemporaries?

Perhaps the answer lies in the types of experiments that Galileo performed over the course of his life. Galileo was extremely interested in the motion of objects, and in particular, in the relationship between four quantities:

  • distance,
  • velocity,
  • acceleration,
  • and time.

However, simply “dropping balls” was too difficult, as there were no measuring devices at the time that were accurate enough to uncover the relationship between how much an object moved in a given amount of time when subjected to the gravitational acceleration here on Earth’s surface. Fortunately, Galileo had a trick up his sleeve, perhaps influenced by his music-oriented father.

 

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When most people think of the term relativity, the first person who comes to mind is Albert Einstein. Indeed, Einstein’s two theories of relativity — the special theory of relativity, put forth in 1905, and the general theory of relativity, put forth a decade later in 1915 — represent a revolutionary way of viewing our Universe. Prior to Einstein, it was thought that both space and time were absolute quantities: the same for all observers, regardless of their location or of their motion through the Universe. It was thought that the amount of time that passed for anyone, anywhere, would be universally agreed upon, as would the distance between any two points or the physical size of solid objects. Only with the arrival of Einstein was it recognized that even quantities such as space and time weren’t absolute at all, but were instead experienced relative to the observer’s point of view.

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But Einstein didn’t originate the concept of relativity at all. In fact, relativity can trace its origins back to nearly 400 years ago: when it was put forth by a scientist who obsessively studied the behavior of objects that moved long before even Newton’s laws of motion: Galileo Galilei. Relativity wasn’t about space or time when it was considered by Galileo, but instead about a much simpler concept: the detectability of motion. What was the difference between the two scenarios of:

  • someone who was in a closed room, with no window to the outside, that was absolutely stationary with respect to everything around them,
  • versus someone who was in an identical closed room, with no window to the outside, that was in constant, unchanging motion in some direction relative to the outside world?

Galileo’s great realization, encapsulated in the principle of relativity, is that there was no difference at all. This core principle of physics, first written down in 1632, remains unchanged, even to the present day.

Are these men on a train that’s stationary and at rest? Or is the train in constant motion relative to the outside world? If not for the sounds and vibrations of the train along the track, and the cues of the outside world seen through the windows, there would be no way for them to know, and no experiment they could perform inside the train car that would tell them. This is the key behind Galilean relativity.
Credit: George Garrigues/Wikimedia Commons

Galileo’s thought process that led him to the principle of relativity was remarkable, yet simple at the same time. Galileo made many inquiries into motion over his life. His most famous discoveries were arguably astronomical, relating to the motions of objects in the heavens. He was familiar with the ideas of Copernicus, and was partial to the notion of a heliocentric Solar System, where Earth was just one of several ordinary planets — along with Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn — that all orbited the Sun. When it came to the daily motion of the objects in Earth’s sky, however, Galileo noted that there were two possible explanations for why the Sun always appeared to rise in the east, pass overhead, and then set in the west, consistent with the observations that the planets, our Moon, the stars, as well as the entire night sky appeared to rotate about Earth’s north celestial pole.

  1. It was possible that the entirety of the heavens — along with all of the objects that were in it — were rotating overhead, while the Earth remained stationary beneath it.
  2. But it was also possible that the heavens themselves were stationary, and that it was actually planet Earth itself that was in motion: rotating about its axis, which gave the appearance of a “rotating sky” to an observer here on Earth.

Galileo noted that there was no experiment that one could reasonably perform here on Earth that would allow someone on the Earth to tell these two scenarios apart. Whether the Earth itself was stationary or whether the planet itself was spinning on its axis, rapidly, completing a full rotation once-per-day, was not something that someone on the Earth was capable of discerning by simply being here on the Earth itself.

A group of telescopes with star trails in the sky.
Above the central array of the Atacama Large Millimetre/Submillimetre Array (ALMA), the southern celestial pole can be pinpointed as the point about which the other stars all appear to rotate. The length of the streaks in the sky can be used to infer the duration of this long-exposure photograph, as a 360 degree arc would correspond to a full 24 hours of rotation. This observed phenomenon could, in principle, be due either to the rotation of the heavens or to the rotation of the Earth.
Credit: ESO/B. Tafreshi (twanight.org)

Consider, for example, the popular, legendary (and perhaps apocryphal) experiment performed by Galileo: dropping balls off of the Leaning Tower of Pisa. If the Earth were stationary, it’s easy to predict what would happen. Galileo stands atop the tower, holding a ball, while the tower stands, unmoving, upon the stationary Earth. When Galileo drops the ball, it simply falls straight down, in a straight line, with its horizontal position never deviating from its initial location above the ground; only its vertical position would change as Galileo releases it, and gravity pulls it down.

But, now, what would happen if the Earth were rotating?

You might think that, if the Earth were spinning about its axis, that when Galileo dropped this ball, the ball would then be in free-fall, while the tower — anchored into the Earth — would rotate along with the Earth itself. If this occurred, perhaps:

  • the ball would fall straight down, in a straight line, toward the center of the Earth,
  • while the tower would continue rotating along with the Earth itself,
  • which would result in the ball appearing to “separate” from the tower at the rate of Earth’s rotation.

Noting that the Earth was a sphere about 40,000 kilometers in circumference, that it rotated once every 24 hours, and that Pisa, where the tower was located, was roughly halfway between the equator and the North Pole, it’s fairly easy to calculate that the tower itself is in motion at around 330 meters-per-second relative to the center of the Earth. Since it takes a ball dropped from the (55-meter-tall) tower a little more than 3 seconds to hit the ground, the fact that the ball appears to fall straight down, rather than winding up over 1000 meters away, you might be tempted to conclude that this experiment proved that the Earth wasn’t rotating.

foucault pendulum spain
This Foucault pendulum, on display in action at the Ciudad de las Artes y de las Ciencias de Valencia in Spain, rotates substantially over the course of a day, knocking down various pegs (shown on the floor) as it swings and the Earth rotates. This demonstration, which makes the rotation of the Earth very clear, was only concocted in the 19th century: more than 200 years after the death of Galileo.
Credit: Daniel Sancho/flickr

Many of Galileo’s contemporaries thought in precisely this fashion. Knowing that the Earth was a sphere with a well-measured circumference, they could calculate what rate the planet — and hence, everything on it — would be moving at if we were, in fact, spinning about our axis. They reasoned that once Galileo released that ball, the ball would be compelled to fall down to the surface of the Earth: straight down, and therefore the rotating Earth should carry the tower away from the ball. Since this wasn’t observed, that implied (to them) that the Earth couldn’t be rotating.

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But Galileo thought about things differently: in relative terms to one another. Sure, the tower might be moving at around 330 meters-per-second relative to the center of the Earth, but so was everything else in this problem:

  • the ground of Pisa itself,
  • the tower,
  • Galileo, standing atop the tower,
  • the surrounding atmospheric air,
  • and the ball in Galileo’s hand.

When Galileo releases this ball, it keeps its memory of that original motion across the surface of the Earth; nothing impacts or changes it when Galileo releases it, and so it doesn’t “separate” from the tower at all. Instead, it simply falls straight down. In fact, the only difference that could potentially be detected would be the fact that, since it’s anchored into the rotating Earth, the “top” of the tower moves slightly faster than the “bottom” of the tower, as it traces out a slightly greater-circumference circle around the Earth as the Earth rotates. The relative motion of the ball, once dropped, with respect to the bottom of the tower would be tiny — about 1.5 millimeters, total — or small enough that it would be unmeasurable with the technology available to Galileo at the time.

According to legend, the first experiment to show that all objects fell at the same rate, irrespective of mass, was performed by Galileo Galilei atop the Leaning Tower of Pisa. Any two objects dropped in a gravitational field, in the absence of (or neglecting) air resistance, will accelerate down to the ground at the same rate. The ball does not “separate” from the tower, either, which some (incorrectly) expected would have been the case if the Earth rotates.
Credit: juliaorige/pixabay

Why would Galileo think so differently than the rest of his contemporaries?

Perhaps the answer lies in the types of experiments that Galileo performed over the course of his life. Galileo was extremely interested in the motion of objects, and in particular, in the relationship between four quantities:

  • distance,
  • velocity,
  • acceleration,
  • and time.

However, simply “dropping balls” was too difficult, as there were no measuring devices at the time that were accurate enough to uncover the relationship between how much an object moved in a given amount of time when subjected to the gravitational acceleration here on Earth’s surface. Fortunately, Galileo had a trick up his sleeve, perhaps influenced by his music-oriented father.

Instead of using objects in free-fall, Galileo began rolling objects — balls and cylinders — down a very slightly inclined ramp. By controlling the inclination of the ramp, Galileo could control the speed of the ball: a ramp that was very close to horizontal would lead to objects accelerating only very slowly, stretching out the amount of time it took them to traverse the ramp. Without a timekeeping tool, Galileo instead set up thin wires, or strings, that would make a sound when the rolling object rolled over them. By spacing out the wires so that the “sounds” would occur at an even tempo, with equal amounts of time between the stimulation of each string, Galileo figured out the basics of the mechanics of motion: that the distance traveled by an object initially at rest was proportional to the amount of time squared that the object is accelerated over.

But his next great insight went a step further. Galileo recognized that the experiments he was performing were yielding results that were completely agnostic about whether the room that he was in was in constant motion or not. Sure, there might not have been planes, trains, or automobiles for Galileo to travel in, but there was a type of vessel that was frequently in constant motion: a ship. Galileo recognized that he could perform these experiments — of rolling balls and cylinders down ramps — aboard a ship just as easily as he could on the surface of the Earth, and that there would be no way of telling, from the results of the experiment, whether the ship were safely docked ashore, or whether the ship was in motion, being carried by the current of the sea.

In fact, this was precisely the situation considered by Galileo in his 1632 book, Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems, where he related (as told in Matt Strassler’s book, Waves in an Impossible Sea),

“Shut yourself up with some friend in the main cabin belowdecks on some large ship… [and] a person belowdecks on a smoothly sailing ship cannot hope to determine whether the ship is in motion or, if so, what is its speed.”

 This key insight — that someone in constant motion has no physical evidence of their motion except by comparing it relative to the outside world — is the core of the principle of relativity.

 

What this version of relativity (Galilean relativity) tells us is that quantities like “position” or “distance,” as well as quantities like “velocity” or “speed,” are not absolute quantities that everyone agrees on. If Galileo were on a ship rolling balls and cylinders down a ramp, and that ship were in motion on the sea, then someone:

  • on the ship with Galileo,
  • on a buoy that were stationary relative to the motion of Galileo’s ship,
  • or on a different ship that were in motion relative to Galileo’s ship,

would all make different measurements for the positions and speeds of the balls and cylinders rolling down Galileo’s ramp at any and all moments in time.

However, even though their measurements would be different from one another’s, no one would be wrong. The measurements would all be consistent with one another, and — assuming that all of these ships and observers were in constant, unchanging (i.e., non-accelerating) motion — they would all reach the same conclusions about matters like “What is the acceleration due to Earth’s gravity?” and “How much time passes between the successive stimulation of the strings along his ramp?” In Galilean relativity, positions and velocities are all dependent on the motion of the observer, but other quantities, like the distances between two points, the time between two events, or the acceleration due to gravity, remain invariant.

 

Remarkably, despite all the advances that we’ve made in physics in all the time since, including:

  • the advent of Newton’s law of universal gravitation,
  • the discovery of electromagnetism,
  • the advances of special and general relativity,
  • and the revolution of quantum mechanics and quantum field theory,

Galileo’s 1632 statement about relativity — that all observers in constant motion (or at rest) experience the same laws and rules governing reality — remains correct even today. At 392 years (and counting), it is arguably the oldest physical principle that remains true, today, in its original, unchanged form.

However, it’s important to recognize that three major aspects of relativity truly have changed in all the time since. The first two were discovered in the late 1800s and put on solid footing by Einstein in 1905: the notion that “distance” and “time” are not absolute quantities that are universally agreed upon between observers, but rather these, too, transform dependent on the relative motion of the observers in question. There are quantities that observers do universally agree upon — things like the value of the speed of light and a quantity known as the spacetime (or Einstein) interval — but things like “lengths” and “durations” are also relative.

 

The third — and arguably, most profound — modification that needs to be made to Galilean relativity is that what we conceive of as “acceleration” is also not a constant that all observers agree on, but rather is a downstream consequence of the combined effects of any thrust or applied force, as well as the curvature of spacetime, which is the underlying cause of what we experience as gravitation. Distances (or lengths) and times (or durations) aren’t only affected by the motions of observers and objects relative to one another, but are also affected by the curvature of spacetime, which is itself determined by the distribution of matter and energy throughout the Universe.

One fun experiment you can do — even as a child — to experience this for yourself is to jump, from rest, as high as you can, inside of a closed elevator. If you do this when the elevator is at rest, you’ll reach a maximum height above the floor, and come down (for most people) after about 1 second has passed. If you do this when the elevator is moving down (at a constant speed) or up (at a constant speed), you’ll have the same exact experience as you did when the elevator was at rest. But if you instead jump when:

  • the elevator accelerates upward from rest,
  • the elevator accelerates downward from rest,
  • the elevator decelerates toward rest while moving upward,
  • or the elevator decelerates toward rest while moving downward,

both your maximum height above the floor and the amount of time you spend in the air will be different. (Be careful not to hit your head on the top of the elevator if you do this!)

 

But the original principle of relativity’s core application still remains. Observers who experience themselves to be at rest on the surface of the Earth have no way of telling, without making some reference or measurement to the outside world, whether they are, in fact, at rest, or whether they’re in constant, uniform (non-accelerating) motion.

Additionally — and this is not only a consequence of general relativity, but was Einstein’s original inspiration for it — if you are experiencing an acceleration (say, downward), you have no way of detecting whether this acceleration is due to the thrust of your engines or whether it’s due to the force of gravity. These two scenarios, illustrated above, led Einstein to formulate what’s now known as his equivalence principle. Observers in a closed room on Earth versus observers in an accelerating rocket in space have no way of telling which situation describes their experience without looking to the outside world.

Today, we understand that many of the laws and rules obeyed by the Universe are unchanged by our positions and motions as we experience it. But the origin of relativity, and the notion that constant motion and being at rest are physically indistinguishable scenarios, goes back nearly 400 years. After all these centuries, we should still find ourselves thanking Galileo.

 

 

Revealed: Shell oil non-profit donated to anti-climate groups behind Project 2025 Geoff Dembicki

 Foundation says it ‘does not endorse any organizations’ while funneling hundreds of thousands to rightwing causes

 

A US foundation associated with the oil company Shell has donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to religious right and conservative organizations, many of which deny that climate change is a crisis, tax records reveal.

Fourteen of those groups are on the advisory board of Project 2025, a conservative blueprint proposing radical changes to the federal government, including severely limiting the Environment Protection Agency.

Shell USA Company Foundation sent $544,010 between 2013 and 2022 to organizations that broadly share an agenda of building conservative power, including advocating against LGBTQ+ rights, restricting access to abortions, creating school lesson plans that downplay climate change and drafting a suite of policies aimed at overhauling the federal government.

 

Donees include the Heartland Institute, a longtime purveyor of climate disinformation, which published a video on YouTube in May stating incorrectly that “the scientific data continue to show there is no climate crisis”. Other groups that have received donations include the American Family Association, which claims that the “climate change agenda is an attack on God’s creation”, as well as the Heritage Foundation, the lead organization behind Project 2025.

“Shell has every reason to want to maintain close relationships with organizations that wield outsize political influence and just happen to reliably support the interests of the fossil fuel industry,” said Adrian Bardon, a professor of philosophy at Wake Forest University who has studied the religious right and climate denialism.

The Shell USA Company Foundation helps employees boost their charitable giving to non-profits. A Shell USA spokesperson wrote via email that the company’s workers make the initial decision to donate “to non-profit (tax exempt) organizations of their choice”.

According to the company’s online donation portal, Shell will match individual donations up to $7,500. The spokesperson confirmed that the foundation “matches employee gifts to such qualified 501(c)(3) nonprofit agencies”, but did not respond to specific inquiries about which organizations, if any, received matching donations from the foundation.

Tax records from 2022 show that the president of the foundation was Gretchen Watkins, the current president of Shell USA. But the foundation itself “does not endorse any organizations” and “giving is a personal decision not directed by the company”, the spokesperson added.

Shell is a multinational oil and gas producer headquartered in London that last year reported adjusted earnings of $28.25bn. Its American subsidiary, Shell USA, has for decades operated Shell USA Company Foundation, which makes grants to American non-profits.

 

Because the foundation itself is a registered non-profit, it must file public returns each year with the IRS, which contain detailed information about the organizations to which it donates. The vast majority of these non-profits have no explicit political focus. They include YMCAs, youth groups, local churches, schools and mainstream charities such as Oxfam and United Way.

But an analysis by the Guardian and DeSmog found at least 21 groups supported by Shell’s foundation that are aggressively opposed to progressive cultural and economic change, including addressing the crisis of global heating.

“They’re all certainly working in the rightwing policy and propaganda space,” said Peter Montgomery, research director at the progressive non-profit organization People for the American Way. “That includes the anti-regulation corporate right and the culture warriors of the religious right.”

Since 2013, the Shell foundation sent $59,264 to the American Family Association, another Project 2025 adviser and an organization designated as a “hate group” by the Southern Poverty Law Center due in part to its long history of aggressive anti-gay activism. In a post from 2022, the conservative Christian organization referred to “the unproven hypothesis of man-made, catastrophic climate change”.

Shell’s foundation contributed $23,321 to the Heritage Foundation, which published the Project 2025 document known as Mandate for Leadership. The conservative thinktank has deep ties to Donald Trump and a long history of attacking the scientific consensus on climate change. Last year, it published a commentary on its website stating that “climate change models are poor predictors of warming”.

 

Shell’s foundation also donated $58,002 to Alliance Defending Freedom, another Project 2025 adviser. It’s a conservative Christian legal activist group that claims credit for helping overturn Roe v Wade, explaining that its “attorneys and staff were proud to be involved from the very beginning”.

Shell’s foundation also reported donations worth $105,748 to Hillsdale College, a private conservative Christian school in Michigan that’s listed as an advisory board member of Project 2025 and that has hosted prominent climate skeptics.

The American Family Association, the Heritage Foundation, Alliance Defending Freedom and Hillsdale College did not respond to requests for comment.

Other donees associated with Project 2025 include the American Center for Law and Justice ($14,321), the Claremont Institute ($1,975), Discovery Institute ($3,300), the Family Research Council ($3,399), First Liberty Institute ($19,100), the Leadership Institute ($7,125), the Media Research Center ($2,528), Students for Life of America ($1,020), the Heartland Institute ($5,000) and the Texas Public Policy Foundation ($8,275).

The Shell USA Foundation also donated to religious right organizations that aren’t directly involved with Project 2025, including $79,874 to Focus on the Family, an anti-abortion group that’s called climate change “an unproven theory”. When reached for comment, Gary Schneeberger, a spokesperson for the organization, wrote: “We consider it a best practice for our ministry and, in fact, a promise to our donors that we never share information about their donations with anyone.”

 

Another anti-abortion group called Texas Right to Life, which has previously argued that climate change is “arguably, nonexistent”, received $65,103 from the foundation. A spokesperson for the group wrote in an email that “the gifts that came from Shell were matched gifts from its employees”.

Shell’s foundation also sent $8,541 to the Prager University Foundation, which is associated with the rightwing media outlet PragerU. Known for producing conservative videos targeting young people with messages downplaying the climate crisis, its content has been approved for classrooms in several states.

Other religious right donees include Judicial Watch ($32,894), the executive committee of the Southern Baptist Convention ($37,420), the Acton Institute for the Study of Religion and Liberty ($2,100) and the Susan B Anthony List ($5,700).

“In the absence of real transparency, one can only speculate on the motives behind these donations,” Bardon said. But the contributions help Shell maintain its place within a broader conservative coalition, he argued. “So if something comes up that bothers me, it’s going to bother you, too, because we’re on the same team,” he said.

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

JD Vance is no pauper − he’s a classic example of ‘poornography,’ in which the rich try to speak on behalf of the poor

 By

 

JD Vance has climbed to his current position as former President Donald Trump’s running mate, in part, by selling himself as a hillbilly, calling on his Appalachian background to bolster his credentials to speak for the American working class.

I grew up as a poor kid,” Vance said on Fox News in August 2024. “I think that’s a story that a lot of normal Americans can empathize with.”

Indeed, the book that brought him to public attention was his 2016 memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy.” In that book, he claims his family carried an inheritance of “abuse, alcoholism, poverty, and trauma.”

“Poor people,” he proclaimed in a 2016 interview with The American Conservative, are “my people.”

 

But there’s a bit of a shell game going on when it comes to Vance’s poverty credentials.

Vance did come from a troubled family. His mother was – like so many Americans, whether they’re poor, middle class or rich – addicted to painkillers. In the book, Vance searches for an explanation for his traumatic relationship with his mother, before hitting on the perfect explanation: His mother’s addiction was a consequence of the fact that her parents were “hillbillies.”

The reality – one that Vance only subtly acknowledges in his memoir – is that he is not poor. Nor is he a hillbilly. He grew up firmly in Ohio’s middle class.

In my forthcoming book, “Poor Things: How Those with Money Depict Those without It,” I detail how Vance’s work is actually part of a genre I call “poornography.” Created mainly by middle- and upper-class people for like-minded readers, this long line of novels, films and plays can end up spreading harmful stereotypes about poor people.

Though these works are sometimes crafted with good intentions, they tend to focus on violence, drugs, alcohol, crudeness and the supposed laziness of poor people.

Peering at all the poor people

When you think about novels and films about the poor, you come upon the great classics: Charles Dickens’ “Oliver Twist,” Emile Zola’s “Germinal,” James Agee and Walker Evans’ “Let Us Now Praise Famous Men,” Jack London’s “The People of the Abyss” or John Steinbeck’s “The Grapes of Wrath.”

Yet all these monuments to the suffering of the poor were written by authors who were not poor. Most of them had little to no knowledge of the lived experience of poor people. At best, they were reporters whose source material was meager. At worst, they simply made things up, recycling stereotypes about poverty.

For example, John Steinbeck had some contact with poor people as a reporter. But as he wrote about migrant camps for “The Grapes of Wrath,” he relied heavily on the notes of Sanora Babb – herself poor and formerly homeless – who traveled to migrant camps throughout California for the Farm Security Administration. Babb’s boss – a friend of Steinbeck’s – had secretly shown the author her notes, without her permission.

Babb would go on to also write a novel based on her experiences, which was bought by Random House. But the publishing house killed it after “Grapes of Wrath” came out, and it wasn’t published until 2004, when the author was 97 years old. That year, she told the Chicago Tribune – correctly, I might add – that Steinbeck’s work “isn’t as accurate as mine.” 

 

Then there’s London, whose “The People of the Abyss” is seen as a faithful portrayal of the lives of the British poor. But London, who went “undercover” to craft a sordid account of England’s urban poor, nonetheless maintained a comfortable apartment. He kept a stash of money sewed into his ragged coat and conveniently escaped for a hot bath and a good meal while pretending to pass as a pauper. The result is a book laden with put-downs of the English working class, who are cast in eugenicist terms as a degenerate race.

When you look at the books or films created by people who grew up poor, the tone and focus often shift dramatically.

Instead of a fixation on the tawdry side of life, you see works that explore the things that bind all people together: family, love, politics, complex emotions and sensual memories.

You only have to open Richard Wright’s “Black Boy,” Agnes Smedley’s “Daughter of Earth” or Justin Torres’ “We the Animals” to see their protagonists’ appreciation of beauty and ability to experience profound pleasure – yes, all while experiencing poverty.

Wright recalls how, as a child, he would play in the sewer, where he would spend hours fashioning all manner of detritus into toys. The young Smedley loves to stare through a hole in her roof to gaze at the sky. And Mike Gold, author of “Jews Without Money,” sings a paean to an empty, garbage-strewn lot in his neighborhood that doubled as his beloved playground.

Hillbilly cosplay

Vance, on the other hand, fills his book with selections from the greatest hits of “poornography” – violence, drugs, sex, obscenity and filth.

But Vance himself was never actually impoverished. His family never had to worry about money; his grandfather, grandmother and mother all had houses in a suburban neighborhood in Middletown, Ohio. He admits that his grandfather “owned stock in Armco and had a lucrative pension.”

He falsely introduces himself to his Yale classmates as “a conservative hillbilly from Appalachia.” Over the course of the book, he confuses himself – and the reader – by variously saying that he is middle class, working class and poor.

In order to justify his memoir as something more than a tale of a drug-addicted mother and a son who went to Yale, he fashions a grand theory that being a hillbilly does not have to be related to social class – or even living in Appalachia.

To Vance, hillbilly-ness becomes kind of a cultural trait, tied to a family history and identity, not class. His grandmother, he writes, “had thought she escaped the poverty of the hills, but the poverty – emotional if not financial – had followed her.”

 

Bootstraps redux

In developing his grand theory, Vance takes readers very close to the now-debunked notion of a culture of poverty, in which the poor are responsible for their situation and their attitude toward work is passed along from one generation to the next.

A dependence on government handouts, according to the theory, undergirds this culture. Vance pines for an imagined glorious past of his slice of America. His neighbors in Middletown had lost – thanks to the welfare state – “the tie that bound them to their neighbors, that inspired them in the way my patriotism had always inspired me.”

But Vance finds himself in a dilemma: Are these people simply lazy? Or are they the victims of a system that encourages them to watch TV and eat bad food as they collect welfare or disability checks?

Several times he refers to people who live on welfare as “never [having] worked a paying job in his life.” He seems to fully buy into the notion that people are poor because they are lazy freeloaders.

He “solves” the problem with the age-old critique of poor people: They got there because of “bad choices.” He mentions a friend who although having a job that paid a steady income nevertheless quit it because he didn’t like getting up early.

“His status in life is directly attributable to the choices he’s made,” he writes, “and his life will improve only through better decisions.”

No platform, no voice

And so the GOP’s young standard-bearer for the working classes simply repeats the same bootstrap rhetoric that’s been peddled for decades.

But it’s not simply a question about believing a politician or not. That would be a fool’s game.

Rather, the issue here is what I call “representation inequality,” by which I mean that one identity group – in this case, poor people – don’t get to represent themselves.

What has happened – whether it’s in politics or in publishing – is something called “elite capture,” in which those with cultural capital and power assume the right to speak for and represent the powerless.

In so doing, dangerous stereotypes and tropes get developed with serious political consequences. Just because you drink Diet Mountain Dew doesn’t mean you do get to speak for those in the mountains.

Our political and educational system elbows out most poor people. First-generation students – like myself, and like many of my students at the University of Illinois in Chicago, where I teach – have a harder time staying in school, have more food insecurity and homelessness, and will often not benefit from the normal boost education offers. They tend to have a much harder time ascending the stratified ranks of culture and politics, becoming the published authors and elected officials who might provide representational equality.

As political scientist Nicholas Carnes points out in his 2018 book “The Cash Ceiling,” only 2% of congressional lawmakers worked in manual labor, the service industry or clerical jobs before getting involved in politics. So it’s no surprise that when the wealthy want to pass certain laws, they’re much more likely to get passed.

 n July 2024, The New York Times reported that Vance’s Yale law professor and author Amy Chua read an early version of what became “Hillbilly Elegy,” one that was more geared to an academic audience and grounded in political theory. She prodded Vance to change his manuscript, telling him that “this grand theory [about America] is not working.”

I would argue that his “grand theory” about the poor doesn’t work, because the poor – unlike many other identity groups – don’t have a platform to articulate and promote their own needs and political vision.

Instead, we’re stuck with people like Vance, who offer bromides at best and fatalistic narratives of doom at worst.

Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Trump and Biden: The National Debt June 24, 2024

 While it is important to understand the fiscal impact of the promises candidates make on the
campaign trail – particularly because they reflect the candidates’ own policy preferences and are
not impacted by unexpected external events or the actions of Congress – the fact that both leading
candidates have served as President also allows for a comparison of their actual fiscal records.
This analysis focuses on the estimated ten-year debt impact of policies approved by Presidents
Trump and Biden around the time of enactment.1 In this analysis, we find:
• President Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new ten-year borrowing during his full term
in office, or $4.8 trillion excluding the CARES Act and other COVID relief.
• President Biden, in his first three years and five months in office, approved $4.3 trillion
of new ten-year borrowing, or $2.2 trillion excluding the American Rescue Plan.
• President Trump approved $8.8 trillion of gross new borrowing and $443 billion of
deficit reduction during his full presidential term.
• President Biden has so far approved $6.2 trillion of gross new borrowing and $1.9 trillion
of deficit reduction

 2
In companion analyses, we will show:
• Roughly 77 percent of President Trump’s approved ten-year debt came from bipartisan
legislation, and 29 percent of the net ten-year debt President Biden has approved thus
far came from bipartisan legislation. The rest was from partisan actions.
• President Trump approved $2.2 trillion of debt in his first two years in office and $6.2
trillion ($2.6 trillion non-COVID) in his second two years. President Biden approved $4.9
trillion ($2.9 trillion non-COVID) in his first two years in office and has so far approved
over $600 billion of net ten-year deficit reduction since.
• President Trump approved $5.9 trillion of net spending increases including interest ($2.8
trillion non-COVID) and $2.5 trillion of net tax cuts ($2.0 trillion non-COVID). President
Biden has approved $4.3 trillion of net spending increases including interest ($2.3 trillion
non-COVID) and roughly $0 of net tax changes ($60 billion revenue increase non-COVID).
• Debt held by the public rose by $7.2 trillion during President Trump’s term including $5.9
trillion in the first three years and five months. Debt held by the public has grown by $6.0
trillion during President Biden’s term so far.
• President Trump’s executive actions added less than $20 billion to ten-year debt on net.
President Biden’s executive actions have added $1.2 trillion to ten-year debt so far.
• The President’s budget was on average 39 days late under President Trump and 58 days
late under President Biden.
Summary Table: Executive Actions & Legislation Approved by Presidents Trump & Biden
Policy Ten-Year Debt Impact Partisan/Bipartisan
President Trump (January 20, 2017-January 20, 2021)
Tax Cuts & Jobs Act +$1.9 trillion Partisan
Bipartisan Budget Acts of 2018 & 2019 +$2.1 trillion Bipartisan
ACA Tax Delays & Repeals +$539 billion Bipartisan
Health Executive Actions +$456 billion Partisan (Executive Action)
Other Legislation +$310 billion Bipartisan
New & Increased Tariffs -$443 billion Partisan (Executive Action)
CARES Act +$1.9 trillion Bipartisan
Response & Relief Act +$983 billion Bipartisan
Other COVID Relief +$756 billion Bipartisan*
Total, Debt Impact Under President Trump +$8.4 trillion Partisan: +$1.9 trillion
Bipartisan: +$6.5 trillion
President Biden (January 20, 2021-June 21, 2024)
Appropriations for FY 2022 & 2023 +$1.4 trillion Bipartisan
Honoring Our PACT Act +$520 billion Bipartisan
Bipartisan Infrastructure Law +$439 billion Bipartisan
Other Legislation +$422 billion Bipartisan
Student Debt Actions +$620 billion Partisan (Executive Action)
Other Executive Actions +$548 billion Partisan (Executive Action)
Fiscal Responsibility Act -$1.5 trillion Bipartisan
Inflation Reduction Act -$252 billion Partisan
Deficit-Reducing Executive Actions -$129 billion Partisan (Executive Action)
American Rescue Plan Act +$2.1 trillion Partisan
Total, Debt Impact Under President Biden +$4.3 trillion Partisan: +$3.0 trillion
Bipartisan: +$1.3 trillion
Note: bipartisan indicates legislation passed with votes from both political parties in either chamber of Congress.
*Includes $23 billion of executive actions in the form of student debt payment pauses.

 How Much Debt Did President Trump Approve?
During his four-year term in office, President Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new ten-year
borrowing above prior law, or $4.8 trillion when excluding the bipartisan COVID relief bills and
COVID-related executive actions. Looking at all legislation and executive actions with
meaningful fiscal impact, the full amount of approved ten-year borrowing includes $8.8 trillion
of deficit-increasing laws and actions offset by $443 billion of deficit-reducing actions.2
These estimates are based on scores of legislation and executive actions rather than retrospective
estimates. Scores are generally made on a conventional basis, though the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
(TCJA) is scored dynamically. The actual debt impact of the policies was likely somewhat higher
than these scores. In particular, the TCJA likely reduced revenue more than projected and saved
less from repealing the individual health care mandate penalty,3 while the Employee Retention
Credit was likely far more expensive than originally estimated

 The major actions approved by President Trump (and ten-year impact with interest) include:
• The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 ($1.9 trillion debt increase)
• The Bipartisan Budget Acts of 2018 and 2019 ($2.1 trillion debt increase)
• ACA Tax Delays and Repeals ($539 billion debt increase)
• Health Executive Actions ($456 billion debt increase)
• Other Legislation ($310 billion debt increase)
• New and Increased Tariffs ($443 billion debt reduction)
• The CARES Act ($1.9 trillion debt increase)
• The Response & Relief Act ($983 billion debt increase)
• Other COVID Relief ($756 billion debt increase

 How Much Debt Has President Biden Approved?
Over his first three years and five months in office, President Biden has approved $4.3 trillion of
new ten-year borrowing, or $2.2 trillion when excluding the American Rescue Plan Act. This
includes $6.2 trillion of deficit-increasing legislation and actions, offset by $1.9 trillion of
legislation and actions scored as reducing the deficit.
These estimates are based on scores of legislation and executive actions rather than retrospective
estimates and do not include preliminary rules, unexecuted “side deals,” or actions ruled illegal
by the Supreme Court. Updated scores and in-process actions would increase the total. For
example, an updated estimate would likely wipe away the $252 billion of scored savings from the
Inflation Reduction Act,4 the informal FRA side deals would reduce its savings by about $500
billion, and the new student debt cancellation plan could cost $250 to $750 billion.
Sources: CRFB estimates based on CBO and OMB projections.
The major actions approved by President Biden so far (and ten-year impact with interest) include:
• Appropriations for FY 2022 and 2023 ($1.4 trillion debt increase)
• The Honoring Our PACT Act ($520 billion debt increase)
• The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law ($439 billion debt increase)
• Other Legislation ($422 billion debt increase)
• Student Debt Actions ($620 billion debt increase)
• Other Executive Actions ($548 billion debt increase)
• The Fiscal Responsibility Act ($1.5 trillion debt reduction)
• The Inflation Reduction Act ($252 billion debt reduction)
• Deficit-Reducing Executive Actions ($129 billion debt reduction)
• The American Rescue Plan Act ($2.1 trillion debt increase)
4
How Much Debt Has President Biden Approved?
Over his first three years and five months in office, President Biden has approved $4.3 trillion of
new ten-year borrowing, or $2.2 trillion when excluding the American Rescue Plan Act. This
includes $6.2 trillion of deficit-increasing legislation and actions, offset by $1.9 trillion of
legislation and actions scored as reducing the deficit.
These estimates are based on scores of legislation and executive actions rather than retrospective
estimates and do not include preliminary rules, unexecuted “side deals,” or actions ruled illegal
by the Supreme Court. Updated scores and in-process actions would increase the total. For
example, an updated estimate would likely wipe away the $252 billion of scored savings from the
Inflation Reduction Act,4 the informal FRA side deals would reduce its savings by about $500
billion, and the new student debt cancellation plan could cost $250 to $750 billion.
Sources: CRFB estimates based on CBO and OMB projections.
The major actions approved by President Biden so far (and ten-year impact with interest) include:
• Appropriations for FY 2022 and 2023 ($1.4 trillion debt increase)
• The Honoring Our PACT Act ($520 billion debt increase)
• The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law ($439 billion debt increase)
• Other Legislation ($422 billion debt increase)
• Student Debt Actions ($620 billion debt increase)
• Other Executive Actions ($548 billion debt increase)
• The Fiscal Responsibility Act ($1.5 trillion debt reduction)
• The Inflation Reduction Act ($252 billion debt reduction)
• Deficit-Reducing Executive Actions ($129 billion debt reduction)
• The American Rescue Plan Act ($2.1 trillion debt increase

Conclusion
The next presidential term will present significant fiscal challenges. While past performance is
not necessarily indicative of future actions, it is helpful to examine the fiscal performance from
each President’s time in office for clues as to how they plan to confront these challenges or how
high of a priority fiscal responsibility will be on their agendas.
Both candidates approved substantial amounts of new borrowing in their first term. President
Trump approved $8.4 trillion in borrowing over a decade, while President Biden has approved
$4.3 trillion so far in his first three years and five months in office. Of course, accountability also
rests with Congress as a co-equal branch of government, which passed legislation constituting
the majority of the fiscal impact under both presidents.
Some of this borrowing was clearly justified, particularly in the early parts of the COVID-19
pandemic when joblessness was rising rapidly and large parts of the economy were effectively
shut down. However, funding classified as COVID relief explains less than half of the borrowing
authorized by either President, and arguably, a meaningful portion of this COVID relief was
either extraneous, excessive, poorly targeted, or otherwise unnecessary.5
In supplemental analyses, we will compare a number of other aspects of the candidates’ fiscal
records.
During the next presidential term, the national debt is projected to reach a record share of the
economy, interest costs are slated to surge, the debt limit will re-emerge, discretionary spending
caps and major tax cuts are scheduled to expire, and major trust funds will be hurtling toward
insolvency.
Adding trillions more to the national debt will only worsen these challenges, just as both
Presidents Trump and Biden did during their terms along with lawmakers in Congress. The
country would be better served if the candidates put forward and stuck to plans to reduce the
national debt, secure the trust funds, and put the budget on a sustainable long-term path

Monday, August 12, 2024

Warming rivers and over-fishing leave native Alaskans facing 'salmon scarcity 'Carla Rosch

 

As the Earth's rivers warm, salmon must either struggle to survive in a degraded habitat or move to cooler waters – but native Alaskan fishing practices are helping protect them.

Ocean heatwaves have been well documented in recent years. Now, scientists say river temperatures, too, are soaring – leaving Alaska's world-famous salmon to navigate increasingly challenging waters as they struggle to complete their migratory cycle. When circumstances deteriorate, migrating fish are often forced to keep moving until they find cooler water. Now, changes in salmon populations are already affecting the culture and lifestyle of many coastal native tribes, a connection that goes back thousands of years.

Salmon are anadromous fish, meaning they spend parts of their lives in different habitats. Alaska's rivers are home to all five species of Pacific salmon; pink (humpy), chinook (king), coho (silver), sockeye (red) and chum (dog). Although there are differences between them, they are all born in freshwater and spend some time there before heading to the ocean, which has better resources for them to eat and grow. When ready, they return to the same stream they were born in, to reproduce and then die.

Salmon go back to their home river because it usually gives them the best chance of survival, says Peter Westley, associate professor of fisheries at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. "Different rivers have different factors, like temperature and how much water is in it, and how big the rocks are – all kinds of stuff. So, the fish that were born there and survived there have traits that allow them to do well there."

 

However, salmon are also very temperature-sensitive and there is growing evidence that some are veering to cooler habitats. Westley led a research project that confirmed salmon are increasingly spawning in Arctic rivers, a region which had previously been too cold. This suggests that at least some salmon species, in this case chum, could be venturing into new territory as climate change reshapes their environment. Similarly, a more recent study found a significant shift in the migratory patterns of Pacific salmon; namely a northward movement into the western Canadian Arctic as it gets warmer.

However, rising temperatures are affecting salmon species differently across the regions of Alaska. While some are working their way north, other populations are severely declining. "In some southern parts of Alaska, it's getting so warm that salmon are really struggling with heat stress and are dying," says Westley.

Although fish can, in theory, find better conditions elsewhere, it doesn't always happen. "Migrations are costly. If you're going to travel, it puts you at risk of being eaten by predators and you're burning energy to swim longer distances. It's difficult for a fish to just go somewhere else," says Westley. "And if you go too far north, there's not as much food, so there are real trade-offs for fish that are migrating."

 This trend is not endemic to Alaska, and although climate change is affecting habitats, it is not the only culprit. A 2024 global study by the World Fish Migration Foundation found an average of 81% decline in migratory freshwater fish populations between 1970 and 2020. Due to data limitations, the situation might be even worse. The report states that migratory fishes are disproportionately threatened, especially those that spend parts of their life in freshwater, largely due to overfishing, and habitat loss or degradation.

 

One of the places most affected by salmon declines is along the Yukon River, Alaska's largest watershed which originates in the coastal mountains of Canada and flows 1,979 miles (3,184km) in a wide arc to the Bering Sea (where approximately 40% of the US commercial fishery catch comes from).

I look at salmon as my ancestors, my children and grandchildren – Eva Dawn Burk

Eva Dawn Burk, from the Nenana native village grew up on a fish camp along the Yukon River with her nomadic family, who subsistence harvest and commercially fish. In a fish camp, native families put their net or fish wheel in the rivers, build smokehouses, set up drying racks and process salmon, a tradition that goes a long way back. Her background was in engineering, working in oil and gas pipelines, but Burk now specialises in natural resources and environment. She is trying to reconnect with their traditional indigenous way of life, and campaigning for food security and food sovereignty.

Most villages on the Yukon are only accessible by plane or boat, which elevates the cost of importing food sources. Salmon is a crucial part of native people's culture and diet, especially those living along rivers, and who have depended on wild salmon for thousands of generations.

"You have so much respect for living beings as a native person. I look at salmon as my ancestors, and then as my children and grandchildren. The salmon relatives and my relatives have been living in relation for all these years," says Burk.

 But locals have been facing severe salmon scarcity. "This will be the fifth year of not fishing," she says. "We had a lot of heat stress in 2019. Salmon were floating up dead in the river and we saw salmon divert into cooler streams much more downriver. After that, everything was shut down."

 

Both the Kuskokwim River and parts of the Yukon River are under federal management for salmon. Around 110 out of Alaska's 229 tribes live in the Arctic Yukon Kuskokwim (AYK) area. "Half of our tribes are in a salmon crisis right now. People are turning more to beavers, ducks or geese, moose and other species to supplement their diet," says Burk.

In April 2024, Alaska and Canada agreed on a further moratorium to suspend fishing chinook salmon on the Yukon River until 2030.

"On the Yukon, you have tribes who are told they can't take a single fish. But out in the ocean, these big pollock trawlers are wasting chinook as bycatch," says Burk. As harvesting salmon on rivers is being banned, Alaskan tribal leaders are coming together to denounce that industrial trawlers, which throw and drag large nets into the sea, are intercepting salmon while they are still in the ocean, halting their migration back to their home rivers.

 For Burk, an important part of the problem has been due to mismanagement of fisheries by the state and the federal government. This year she joined the North Pacific Fishery Management Council's (NPFMC) Advisory Panel, hoping to increase Tribes' representation and involvement in the way fisheries are managed. "We are taking up space and demanding that action be taken. We're fighting to get stronger trawler restrictions," says Burk. "This is one of the last wild king salmon runs in the world and we're trying to protect it."