GOP Texas Govenor May Be Eating a Little Hoover Hog

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced on Friday that the state has requested federal assistance to help with COVID-19 testing and treatment amid a surge in cases. The Texas Division of Emergency Management and the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) asked for federal resources to support testing centers, medical personnel and more monoclonal antibody treatments. Abbott, who has been a leading opponent of COVID-19 vaccine mandates, said in a statement that Texas is “urging the federal government to step up in this fight and provide the resources necessary to help protect Texans.” “Testing sites, additional medical staff, and continued shipments of therapeutics from the federal government will help us continue to save lives and mitigate the spread of COVID-19,” he said. “Detecting COVID-19 and preventing COVID-related hospitalizations are critical to our fight against this virus." The state is specifically requesting testing sites in Bexar, Cameron, Dallas, Harris, Hidalgo and Tarrant counties based on COVID-19 metrics, including positivity rates and hospitalizations, and asking for more supplies of the sotrovimab monoclonal antibody treatment. As of Sunday afternoon, Harris County had the fifth-most confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University's coronavirus resource center. Additionally, Texas requested three teams of medical personnel to help in hospitals in urban areas that do not have staff contracted with the DSHS and asked the federal government to continue supplying the Regeneron and bamlanivimab monoclonal antibody treatments. The requests comes after the Texas Health and Human Services Commission revealed last week that the state had run out of its supply of sotrovimab, which has proved to be effective in combating the omicron variant. The omicron strain is driving a nationwide surge in COVID-19 cases. The state said infusion centers would not be able to provide the treatment until “federal authorities ship additional courses of sotrovimab to Texas in January.” Abbott last week said that while President Biden "vows full federal support to help states combat COVID," in reality, "he's not." "Biden is hoarding the anti-body therapeutic drugs & denying states independent access to that medical treatment. Now, he has stopped providing any of that medicine to Texas," he added. Texas is currently seeing a spike in coronavirus cases. At the end of December, the state was reporting more than 10,000 new coronavirus cases per day, up from the roughly 4,000 new daily COVID-19 infections in November, according to the state’s COVID-19 dashboard. Biden last month announced new efforts to safeguard Americans and bolster communities and hospitals amid the spread of omicron. The state of Texas made headlines on Friday after a federal judge blocked mask and vaccine mandates in the state’s Head Start program. Abbott, in a tweet after the ruling, said, “Texas just beat Biden again.” Abbott issued an executive order in October barring vaccine mandates from being implemented in the state after Biden announced a series of federal mandates for health care workers, large employers and federal contractors. Tags Greg Abbott Joe Biden Omicron variant monoclon

What will 2022 bring in the way of misinformation on social media? 3 experts weigh in: December 27, 2021 7.58am EST

At the end of 2020, it seemed hard to imagine a worse year for misinformation on social media, given the intensity of the presidential election and the trauma of the COVID-19 pandemic. But 2021 proved up to the task, starting with the Jan. 6 insurrection and continuing with copious amounts of falsehoods and distortions about COVID-19 vaccines. To get a sense of what 2022 could hold, we asked three researchers about the evolution of misinformation on social media. Absent regulation, misinformation will get worse Anjana Susarla, Professor of Information Systems, Michigan State University While misinformation has always existed in media – think of the Great Moon Hoax of 1835 that claimed life was discovered on the moon – the advent of social media has significantly increased the scope, spread and reach of misinformation. Social media platforms have morphed into public information utilities that control how most people view the world, which makes misinformation they facilitate a fundamental problem for society. There are two primary challenges in addressing misinformation. The first is the dearth of regulatory mechanisms that address it. Mandating transparency and giving users greater access to and control over their data might go a long way in addressing the challenges of misinformation. But there’s also a need for independent audits, including tools that assess social media algorithms. These can establish how the social media platforms’ choices in curating news feeds and presenting content affect how people see information. The second challenge is that racial and gender biases in algorithms used by social media platforms exacerbate the misinformation problem. While social media companies have introduced mechanisms to highlight authoritative sources of information, solutions such as labeling posts as misinformation don’t solve racial and gender biases in accessing information. Highlighting relevant sources of, for example, health information may only help users with greater health literacy and not people with low health literacy, who tend to be disproportionately minorities. A woman stands on stage in front of an audience gesturing with her hands as the screen behind her displays a mosaic of close-up images of parts of people's faces Carnegie Mellon University’s Justine Cassell discusses algorithmic bias at the World Economic Forum in 2019. World Economic Forum, CC BY-NC-SA Another problem is the need to look systematically at where users are finding misinformation. TikTok, for example, has largely escaped government scrutiny. What’s more, misinformation targeting minorities, particularly Spanish-language content, may be far worse than misinformation targeting majority communities. I believe the lack of independent audits, lack of transparency in fact checking and the racial and gender biases underlying algorithms used by social media platforms suggest that the need for regulatory action in 2022 is urgent and immediate. Growing divisions and cynicism Dam Hee Kim, Assistant Professor of Communication, University of Arizona “Fake news” is hardly a new phenomenon, yet its costs have reached another level in recent years. Misinformation concerning COVID-19 has cost countless lives all over the world. False and misleading information about elections can shake the foundation of democracy, for instance, by making citizens lose confidence in the political system. Research I conducted with S Mo Jones-Jang and Kate Kenski on misinformation during elections, some published and some in progress, has turned up three key findings. The first is that the use of social media, originally designed to connect people, can facilitate social disconnection. Social media has become rife with misinformation. This leads citizens who consume news on social media to become cynical not only toward established institutions such as politicians and the media, but also toward fellow voters. Second, politicians, the media and voters have become scapegoats for the harms of “fake news.” Few of them actually produce misinformation. Most misinformation is produced by foreign entities and political fringe groups who create “fake news” for financial or ideological purposes. Yet citizens who consume misinformation on social media tend to blame politicians, the media and other voters. The third finding is that people who care about being properly informed are not immune to misinformation. People who prefer to process, structure and understand information in a coherent and meaningful way become more politically cynical after being exposed to perceived “fake news” than people who are less politically sophisticated. These critical thinkers become frustrated by having to process so much false and misleading information. This is troubling because democracy depends on the participation of engaged and thoughtful citizens. Looking ahead to 2022, it’s important to address this cynicism. There has been much talk about media literacy interventions, primarily to help the less politically sophisticated. In addition, it’s important to find ways to explain the status of “fake news” on social media, specifically who produces “fake news,” why some entities and groups produce it, and which Americans fall for it. This could help keep people from growing more politically cynical. Rather than blaming each other for the harms of “fake news” produced by foreign entities and fringe groups, people need to find a way to restore confidence in each other. Blunting the effects of misinformation will help with the larger goal of overcoming societal divisions. Propaganda by another name Ethan Zuckerman, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Communication, and Information, UMass Amherst I expect the idea of misinformation will shift into an idea of propaganda in 2022, as suggested by sociologist and media scholar Francesca Tripodi in her forthcoming book, “The Propagandist’s Playbook.” Most misinformation is not the result of innocent misunderstanding. It’s the product of specific campaigns to advance a political or ideological agenda. Once you understand that Facebook and other platforms are the battlegrounds on which contemporary political campaigns are fought, you can let go of the idea that all you need are facts to correct people’s misapprehensions. What’s going on is a more complex mix of persuasion, tribal affiliation and signaling, which plays out in venues from social media to search results.

Pat Toomey: Mr. Irrelevant

Pat puts out a newsletter from time to time to explain to the good people of Pennsylvania what he is up to and I guess to justify his job. Well! Last week Pat came out bashing the Democrats spending bill as to inflationary. Pat the good Republican that he is must have forgotten about voting for the Trump tax cuts of 2017. Let’s take a quick look at these tax cuts. Christian Weller: Forbes 1/29/2020 The Tax Cuts Didn't Pay For Themselves, The Deficits Prove It The Federal Deficit Will Total $1 Trillion in 2020 According To The Congressional Budget Office Getty Less than a week after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin repeated the fanciful claim that the Trump tax cuts of 2017 would pay for themselves, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) proved him wrong. If tax cuts actually paid for themselves, they would reduce deficits based on faster revenue growth that comes from faster economic growth. Deficits immediately shot up after the 2017 supply-side tax cuts. And CBO forecasts that those deficits will continue to stay high for the foreseeable future. This is the opposite of tax cuts paying for themselves. CBO released its regular update to the economic and budget outlook on January 28. The new estimates show a deficit of $1 trillion for 2020. This is the equivalent of 4.6% of gross domestic product. The federal budget deficit will grow to 5.4% of GDP by 2030, according to GDP. This is a much worse outlook for the current deficit than CBO showed just before Congress passed the Trump tax cuts. In June 2017, CBO anticipated a deficit of 3.6% of GDP for 2020. The current deficit is thus 27.8% greater than CBO projected before the tax cuts. Moreover, this one percentage point difference in the current projected deficit and the prior projection equals $221 billion for 2020. This is a substantial gap that follows in large part from the tax cuts, especially since the economy continued to grow during this time. A temporarily larger deficit may be worth it, especially in a world of very low interest rates, if it translates into faster economic growth. But that is not what has happened. Economic growth increased briefly in early 2018 but quickly fell back to or even below the modest levels that persisted before the 2017 tax cuts (see figure below). Not all deficits are bad, but the ones from the supply-side tax cuts have proven to be. The Tax Cuts Did Not Result In Faster Growth Growth Has Slowed After A Short Increase Following The Tax Cuts Calculations Based on Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts Congress enacted the trickle-down tax cuts, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, in December 2017, aimed at accelerating growth. The argument in favor of these cuts went something like this: Giving corporations a lot more money and showering the richest households would give them more cash to invest. This would lower the cost of investing and spark a boom in investments in new manufacturing plants, office buildings, vehicle fleets and energy upgrades, among other things. These new investments would translate into faster productivity growth, higher economic growth and stronger wage and employment gains. That was at least the argument for selling lopsided tax cuts for the biggest winners in the current economy. But the first step in this chain — faster business investment growth — never happened. This should not have been surprising. Corporations were already profitable and sat on piles of cash in 2017. The richest households had also reaped the benefits of the economic expansion since 2009. And interest rates were very low. Yet none of these factors were enough to spark an investment boom. Those looking for cheap money for their investments didn’t have to look far. The problem was that there weren’t enough companies looking to invest. Other factors likely held back investments. Most notably, incomes have grown only slowly, households face increasing costs for health care, housing and education and continue to be burdened by massive amounts of consumer debt. There was and still is no reason for firms to invest in more capacity to make more stuff since they know consumers are maxed out and can’t by the additional things. This has important implications for using the federal purse to boost economic growth. Rather than wasting the money on trickle-down tax cuts, Congress could have spent the money on badly needed infrastructure improvements, on making education and health care more affordable and on greening the economy, to name just some of the bigger ideas. The result would have been direct income and job gains for American workers. Families would have gotten help with necessary yet costly items such as health care and education. And the cost of doing business for all companies would have been lower, not just for large cash-rich corporations. Both the economy and workers would have won. Investing in people and the country instead of wasting money on the lucky few actually works. Keep up the good work Pat

Critical infrastructure is most at risk of flooding in these 10 districts

Critical infrastructure is most at risk of flooding in these 10 districts Here are the top 10 House districts that have the highest percentage of critical infrastructure — such as power plants and hospitals — currently susceptible to flooding. All of these lawmakers voted along party lines on President Joe Biden’s climate bills, with the Democrats supporting them and the Republicans opposed. Rep. Maria Salazar (R) FL-27Rep. Steve Scalise (R) LA-1Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D) TX-29Rep. Byron Donalds (R) FL-19Rep. Randy Weber (R) TX-14Rep. Ted Deutch (D) FL-22Rep. Carlos Giménez (R) FL-26Rep. Troy Carter (D) LA-2Rep. Doris Matsui (D) CA-6Rep. Clay Higgins (R) LA-3 88%78%74%73%70%69%69%68%65% 63% Source: First Street Foundation Graphic: John Keefe, CNN

Does He Really Believe His Own Nonsense?

Just Another Snake Oil Stalesman Fact check: David Perdue falsely claims Brian Kemp turned over control of Georgia elections to Stacey Abrams Daniel Dale profile By Daniel Dale, CNN Updated 12:49 PM ET, Thu December 9, 2021 'It's head-spinning': Ex-GOP lawmaker reacts to ex-senator's gubernatorial bid JU Source: CNN 'It's head-spinning': Ex-GOP lawmaker reacts to ex-senator's gubernatorial bid 01:51 Washington (CNN)Former Sen. David Perdue of Georgia launched his campaign for governor on Monday with a false claim about his chief opponent in the Republican primary, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp. In a Fox News interview with Sean Hannity, Perdue accused Kemp of handing control of Georgia elections to Democrat Stacey Abrams, the former Georgia state House minority leader who is now making a second run for governor after Kemp beat her in a close race in 2018. "Over my dead body will we ever do what Kemp did, and that is turn our elections over to Stacey Abrams," said Perdue, who lost his US Senate seat to Democrat Jon Ossoff in early 2021. "We'll never let that happen again." Perdue's claim echoed language he used in the announcement video he released earlier on Monday: "Over my dead body will we ever give Stacey Abrams control of our elections again." Perdue didn't elaborate on how Kemp supposedly turned over Georgia elections to Abrams, and his campaign didn't respond to CNN's requests for clarification. But his comments on Fox were preceded by some relevant context from Hannity. Hannity had complained just over a minute earlier about a 2020 legal settlement between Democratic organizations and Georgia elections officials. That settlement, which Trump has denounced repeatedly, laid out statewide standards for how Georgia counties had to verify absentee voters' signatures and for how quickly those counties had to contact absentee voters whose ballots were at risk of being tossed out. Facts First: Perdue's claim was entirely inaccurate. Stacey Abrams has never been in control of Georgia elections, and Kemp certainly did not turn over Georgia elections to her. In reality: The 2020 legal settlement didn't give control of Georgia elections to any Democrat, neither Abrams nor Kemp was a party to the settlement and Abrams wasn't even in government at the time. Perdue could perhaps argue that he meant "turn our elections over to Stacey Abrams" in some less-than-literal way. But his claim is baseless no matter how generously you interpret it. In a rare moment of unity, the Kemp and Abrams campaigns both said Tuesday that Perdue's claim was false. Kemp campaign spokesman Cody Hall said in an email to CNN that "the claim he gave Abrams control of elections is a lie." Hall also said that "the Governor had no role in the settlement negotiations" and "was not a party to the agreement." The Abrams campaign reiterated that she had not been involved in the settlement either. Campaign spokesman Seth Bringman said in an email to CNN: "David Perdue was apparently using one of Donald Trump's favorite Georgia fairy tales to make the argument that Brian Kemp is not anti-voter enough. Is this real life?!" Following Trump The March 2020 settlement has become a boogeyman to Trump and his Georgia allies. Trump has blasted both Kemp and Republican Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger over the settlement -- while wrongly describing what it said and wrongly describing it as an Abrams vehicle for election fraud. So even without confirmation from Perdue that this is what he was referring to on Monday, it's worth explaining who was involved in the agreement, where it came from and what it actually included. The settlement resolved a legal complaint that had been filed in 2019 by the Democratic Party of Georgia and two national Democratic entities, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The defendants listed on the settlement document Trump and others have criticized were Raffensperger and four other then-members of the state election board. Kemp and Abrams were not mentioned in the settlement. The specifics of the settlement The settlement addressed a Democratic complaint about a hole in Georgia elections law. But it did not change anything about who has power over Georgia elections. Here's the background. A law passed by the Republican-controlled legislature in 2019 required counties to give absentee voters the opportunity to "cure" problems with their ballots, such as mismatched or missing signatures, before those ballots were tossed out. The law had also required counties to "promptly" get in touch with the voters whose ballots were in danger. But the law didn't define "promptly" and didn't specify what methods counties needed to use to notify the voters. The Democratic plaintiffs alleged that too many absentee ballots had been rejected in Georgia because of the absence of such specifics; they also argued that these rejections had disproportionately disenfranchised "African-American and other minority voters." Raffensperger settled the complaint by agreeing to enforce a set of statewide notification standards -- standards that, as Raffensperger's office emphasized to CNN, the state election board had already approved at public meetings during the weeks prior to the settlement agreement. Raffensperger said in a statement to CNN that the settlement "didn't change Georgia law -- it upheld it." Under the new standards, counties had to notify absentee voters of pending ballot rejections, and the opportunity to "cure" the problem, either by the next business day or in three business days, depending on how late in the campaign the ballot was received. And counties were required to send the voters a mailed notice for sure, plus try them by phone and email if that extra information was available on their voter registration records. Nothing in this policy represented a transfer of election power to Abrams or to Democrats more broadly. Georgia's signature-match system was eliminated by the new Republican elections law Kemp signed in March 2021; now Georgia's absentee voters have to provide one of several forms of non-signature identification. But contrary to Trump's claim in September 2021 that the 2020 legal settlement "effectively abolished signature verification" in Georgia, the verification system was very much in place during the 2020 presidential election. In fact, the settlement explicitly kept a signature verification system in place -- laying out a statewide process for how counties had to go about comparing voters' new signatures with older signatures on file. Training materials Some Republicans have complained that another section of the settlement gave too much power to Democrats. Raffensperger and the state election board members agreed to "consider in good faith" sending counties "additional guidance and training materials" on signature verification that would be drafted by the Democratic plaintiffs. Even if Raffensperger's office did send counties Democratic-drafted guidance and training materials, that still wouldn't mean Abrams had been handed control of Georgia elections. But Raffensperger's office told CNN on Tuesday that they didn't end up sending out those documents. "We considered but did not use or distribute the materials from the Democratic Party plaintiffs," the office said in an email. CLARIFICATION: This story has been updated to add a comment from Raffensperger and to clarify when the Georgia state election board approved new statewide notification standards for absentee ballots. Paid Content

A Texas school district is reviewing 400 library books after a GOP lawmaker's inquiry December 8, 2021 Rachel Treisman

One of Texas' largest school districts is reviewing more than 400 of its library books following a Republican lawmaker's statewide inquiry into school library titles dealing with topics like race, gender and sexuality. The North East Independent School District in San Antonio says it was already in the process of reviewing its library books when state Rep. Matt Krause, who chairs the Texas House's General Investigating Committee, announced his inquiry in late October. A Texas lawmaker is targeting 850 books that he says could make students feel uneasy Politics A Texas lawmaker is targeting 850 books that he says could make students feel uneasy Krause — who is also a candidate for Texas attorney general — sent schools statewide a 16-page list of roughly 850 books related to gender identity, sexuality, race and sexual health, and asked officials to tell him how many copies of the books their libraries hold and how much their districts spent on them. He said at the time that he was targeting titles that "might make students feel discomfort, guilt, anguish, or any other form of psychological distress because of their race or sex or convey that a student, by virtue of their race or sex, is inherently racist, sexist, or oppressive, whether consciously or unconsciously." Article continues after sponsor message These titles include And Tango Makes Three, a children's book about a same-sex penguin couple and their daughter; the Pulitzer Prize-winning The Confessions of Nat Turner and the nonfiction We the Students: Supreme Court Cases For and About Students. Some school districts, like Austin and Dallas, have said that they won't comply with Krause's request. San Antonio district found 414 of those titles in its schools North East ISD spokesperson Aubrey Chancellor told NPR over email that the district was reviewing its books when it learned of Krause's request, at which point it determined that its libraries held 414 of the books on his list. That's out of some 800,000 books across the district, she later clarified, and the breakdown varies across its 67 campus libraries. Chancellor said district officials asked staff to review those books out of an abundance of caution and to make sure they don't contain any obscene or vulgar material. "For us, this is not about politics or censorship, but rather about ensuring that parents choose what is appropriate for their minor children," Chancellor wrote. She said the process is moving quickly, with more than 100 books having been reviewed and deemed age-appropriate in a matter of days. Texas governor decries school library books with 'pornographic or obscene material' Politics Texas governor decries school library books with 'pornographic or obscene material' Most are appropriate and will remain on the shelves, she added, but some may contain content that "needs further review to ensure the books are accessible based on age appropriateness." Faced with student criticism, the district spokesperson calls it a "reshuffle" Some North East ISD students have already voiced their opposition to the statewide inquiry and review: An online petition titled "Remove the Krause List from all NEISD schools" has accrued nearly 2,000 signatures in about five days. The petition notes that titles on Krause's list primarily include books about race, resources for safe sex, books about gender identity and stories centering LGBTQ relationships, and said such books offer students important information and a place to see their stories represented. "Many black and lgbtq students in NEISD are appalled and hurt by NEISD's decision to comply with Matt Krause and suppress our harmless resources and stories," it reads. "We are asking for NEISD to take action against the suppression of our resources, and we are asking students to help us in advocating against this Krause list." Education In Virginia's Election: It Wasn't Just About Critical Race Theory Consider This from NPR Education In Virginia's Election: It Wasn't Just About Critical Race Theory When asked about the petition, Chancellor characterized the review process as part of a broader effort to determine the age-appropriateness of books and move them around as needed. "If a book needs to be moved from elementary to the secondary level or whether a book at the high school level needs to be placed in a separate section that requires parental permission," she wrote. "The idea is more of a reorganization and a reshuffle — the purpose is not to remove books." The district is also forming a book review committee to determine which books may need to go in a separate section of the library and launching an electronic tool that parents can use to see which library books their children are checking out. It's part of a larger GOP push to decide what Texas schools can teach Krause is one of several Texas Republicans to have recently demanded information about school library books that they deem inappropriate as the highly politicized debate over critical race theory plays out in districts across the country. Last month, Gov. Greg Abbott asked the state's association of school boards to shield students from library books with "pornographic or obscene material," and then directed state education officials to develop standards for blocking the presence of such books in Texas public schools. Texas Public Radio has more on Republicans' latest efforts to dictate what can be taught in classrooms. This story originally appeared on the Morning Edition live blog.

Michigan school shooting shows how violence can transition from online threats to real-world tragedy by Mia Bloom & Volkan Topalli

The warning signs were there. In the days leading up to the deadliest school shooting of 2021 in the U.S., 15-year-old Ethan Crumbley made a series of disturbing comments and messages – both online and in a drawing. He had been caught at school searching online for bullets. The drawing on his desk, discovered by one of his teachers, depicted a gun pointing at the words “The thoughts won’t stop. Help me.” It is, perhaps, easy to look back at the postings of a mass shooter after the event and highlight the red flags that were potentially missed. But how do you know when a young person is writing offensive, threatening or disturbing posts merely to garner attention or to blow off steam, rather than presenting a threat to themselves or others? And at what point in the transition from online threats to real-world harm should concerns by teachers, parents or peers be deemed actionable by law enforcement and other officials? More than 140,000 readers get one of The Conversation's informative newsletters As experts in extremist violence and criminal justice, we believe many of the investigative tactics used in countering terrorism can be leveraged to prevent violent acts like the one Ethan Crumbley is charged with carrying out. In particular, monitoring social media and systematically assessing the threat of individuals who post disturbing content can prove critically important. Among the charges Crumbley faces is one count of terrorism, a rarity in school shooting cases. Karen McDonald, the prosecutor in Oakland County, Michigan, spoke of the similarity between the events at Oxford High School and terrorism: “If that’s not terrorism, I don’t know what is.” As such, which lessons can be used from terrorism research to help identify potential lone-actor shooters? They leak information about the attack Research on lone-actor terrorism indicates most “leak” crucial information before an attack. In up to 74% of cases included in studies, such individuals shared crucial details of the planned attack with friends, family members or co-workers. The study looked at lone actors across a variety of movements, from far-right nationalists to Islamist extremists to single-issue groups, such as the Animal Liberation Front. In some of these cases, details were posted online before the attack. They display disturbing behavior Speaking on CNN, Candice Delong, a former FBI profiler, explained that active shooters often exhibit aggressive and inappropriate behavior. Indeed, prosecutor McDonald said there was a “mountain of digital evidence” that Crumbley planned the attack in advance, adding that there was “additional evidence that hasn’t been released yet.” Investigators are continuing to review Crumbley’s social media and online behavior – not only what he posted but also his search history. At his arraignment, the Oakland County Sheriff’s Office said materials recovered from Crumbley’s cellphone included “a video made by him the night before the incident wherein he talked about shooting and killing students the next day at Oxford High School.” “Further, a journal was recovered from Ethan’s backpack also detailing his desire to shoot up a school to include murdering students.” Our own assessment of what is publicly known about this material suggests striking similarities between Crumbley’s behaviors before the shooting and the types of radical online content – manifested in memes, images and gaming platforms – most often associated with violent extremist groups that target and recruit young people. They radicalize online first Our research finds that extremists rely heavily on social media and the internet to recruit and access vulnerable youths. And like individuals recruited online, school shooters can often experience a similar transition – they go from posting violent fantasies online to engaging in real-world actions. In Crumbley’s case, he moved very quickly from online posts to real-world harm, seemingly much faster than most lone-actor shooters who can take several months or even a year before they manifest violence. They draw inspiration from online violence Critically, it is not necessary for extremist groups to purposely direct young individuals into such destructive behavior. Many lone-actor shooters perpetrate acts of violence through mere exposure to such messaging, especially when it resonates with a young person’s existing insecurities or grievances. This creates a pernicious form of plausible deniability – where extremist groups or individuals can simultaneously incite violence through multiple means and deny responsibility for the actions of individuals who are inspired by them. Psychologist Randy Borum has argued multiple motivations might be the norm, but online incitement is certainly a common theme. They fixate on perceived enemies and injustices Lone-actor shooters can become focused on imagined “enemies” deserving of punishment and “justice.” This behavior has been evident in the past few years with “incels” – involuntary celibates – who blame women for their social rejection and use violence to express their misogyny. According to the U.N. Office of Counter-Terrorism, many school shooters include incel language in their manifestos, journals and other writings. We do not yet know the specific motivations behind the latest school shooting. But we do get a picture of Crumbley as someone acting out of perceived frustrations and resentments. And in this way, he may not be dissimilar from mass killers like Elliot Rodger, Alek Minassian, or Jake Davidson who identify or have been identified as incels. The common theme is these young men’s frustrations, along with growing feelings of anger and hate, is that they transitioned from being expressed through online fantasy to real-world tragedy. Crumbley matches many of the stereotypical characteristics associated with other mass shooters: He was young, white, male and seemingly disaffected. It is also clear that Crumbley was attracted to firearms. Reading the signs Not all young men posting and consuming violent content online will carry out acts of violence. The majority, in fact, won’t. But experience shows that some are at risk for taking what they see online to try to make it happen in the real world, and the consequences of these few acts can be devastating to families and communites. In Crumbley’s case, warning signs appear to have been missed. School officials did meet with Crumbley and his parents to voice their concerns over his behavior twice, including on the day of the attack, but as Tim Throne, the district superintendent, later wrote, “At no time did counselors believe the student might harm others.” School lockdowns, active-shooter drills, and campus security – all of which Oxford High had implemented – cannot replace preemptive prevention. Identifying and getting to would-be shooters before they can move from the hypothetical online world to the physical real world is critical. Reading those signals and setting up early-warning interventions before they turn into a tragedy is critical work for those in public safety and academia. [Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend. Sign up for our weekly newsletter.]