Wednesday, May 22, 2024

How much can a president impact the economy? Top economist Mark Zandi breaks it down.by Mark Zandi, For The Inquirer

 Three big questions about how a second term for Joe Biden or Donald Trump could affect your wallet.

 

Most Americans put the economy at or near the top of the list of issues for deciding which presidential candidate to vote for. There is a lot to think about. So let’s consider several common questions regarding the election and the economy.

Do presidential policies actually matter to the economy?

Yes, presidents and their policies matter. While the economy is buffeted by many forces outside the control of presidents, their policies are consequential. Most vitally in times of crisis. Both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump should be applauded for helping the economy weather the massive blow from the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump provided some $3 trillion in support and Biden $2 trillion. All of this was financed by more government borrowing, which added to the nation’s heavy debt load, but without the funds, the economy would have struggled to recover. The hit to the government’s fiscal situation likely would have been even more devastating.

Biden’s pandemic relief response has been criticized for being too large, since it came later in the pandemic and is blamed for the high inflation plaguing much of this term. That’s unfair. It was unclear at the time how the pandemic would play out, and blame for the high inflation rests with the pandemic, which badly scrambled global supply chains and upended the job market.

 

Of course, how much presidents accomplish depends on the makeup of Congress. Both Trump and Biden controlled Congress early in their terms and seized the opportunity. Trump passed a $2 trillion tax cut for corporations and individuals. Biden has ramped up spending on roads, bridges, and other infrastructure, incentivized more R&D and semiconductor investment, and provided tax breaks to supercharge the clean energy transition.

Trump also used executive orders to skirt Congress more than any modern president to make policy changes with big economic implications. He rescinded U.S. involvement in the Paris Climate Accord, ended involvement in a free trade deal with Pacific-rim nations that excluded China, and increased tariffs on China and other trading partners. Biden has also used executive orders, albeit much less so and with modest economic consequence.

How often do candidates’ economic campaign promises ultimately become policies?

There’s a lot of political bombast on the campaign trail, but listen carefully as both Biden and Trump have essentially done as president what they said they would do.

Candidate Trump said in 2016 that he would erect a border wall with Mexico, raise tariffs on many of our trading partners, forcefully engage China, reduce regulations on fossil fuel production and the financial system, and cut taxes

 

Candidate Biden said in 2020 that he would invest in the nation’s infrastructure and increase funding for education, for health care, and to address climate change.

They both did that, so listen to what they are saying now.

Trump is talking about even larger tariffs on all our trading partners, mass deportation of unauthorized immigrants, more corporate tax cuts, rolling back tax breaks for electric vehicles and clean energy, and having a say in interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Biden is talking about scaling back tax cuts for corporations and wealthier individuals, a bigger tax break for families with children, funds to support building more affordable housing and eldercare, and tighter regulation on big banks.

Can the economy’s performance in Biden and Trump’s first terms predict future performance?

Analyzing Trump and Biden’s first terms is not as helpful as you might imagine. Of course, the script is still being written on Biden’s term, but even abstracting from this, any answer is complicated by the pandemic, which created chaos in Trump’s last year as president and Biden’s first year. The Russian war in Ukraine also caused serious economic damage in year two of Biden’s term.

Perhaps the best way to compare the economy’s performance under the two presidents is to compare 2019, three years into Trump’s term and before the pandemic, with 2023, three years into Biden’s term and largely after major economic impacts of the pandemic and Russian war.

 

But here’s the thing: The economy performed well in both those years.

In 2019, the economy posted strong GDP and job gains and unemployment was low at below 4%. The stock market had a good year, and house prices were on the rise.

In 2023, the economy also grew strongly, unemployment was steadfastly low, and stocks and housing posted big gains.

Inflation has been higher under Biden than Trump, but even after accounting for inflation, the typical Americans’ incomes rose more quickly in 2023 than in 2019. Even comparing Philadelphia’s economic performance, it’s a draw.

Thus, using the economy’s past performance to gauge whether Biden or Trump would be the better steward of the economy in the future is not especially helpful.

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Class Consciousness for Billionaires by Benjamin Wallace-Wells

 We used to think the rich had a social function. What are they good for now?

 Around the start of the twenty-first century, the Oxford sociologist Jonathan Gershuny noticed a change in the way the privileged behaved: the leisure class that the economist Thorstein Veblen had described during the Gilded Age seemed no longer to exist. The farther up people were on the income ladder, the harder they worked. “Busyness,” Gershuny concluded, was “the badge of honor for the new superordinate working class.” These days, even the highest-profile billionaires tend to be a little grim-faced. Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos—they practice judo throws, but do they ever smile? Recently, the Wall Street Journal reported on the minting of a new mega-billionaire, the eighty-six-year-old Texas wildcatter Autry Stephens, who, in February, sold his company and its meticulously assembled Permian drilling rights for twenty-six billion dollars. Stephens had driven to his office every day for forty-five years, lately in an old Toyota Land Cruiser. Was he looking forward to enjoying his extraordinary gains? Not really—he would miss the grind. “There is certainly some sadness on my part,” Stephens said.

 

Why work this hard? Doesn’t a life of ease beckon? Aren’t there polo ponies to raise? The traditional rationale is to provide comforts to those you love. “Familia, id est substantia,” the fifteenth- and sixteenth-century southern-European jurists argued—in other words, the family is the patrimony. But, at Stephens’s level, the logic dissolves. No family needs the twenty-sixth billion. In the early twentieth century, the Texas oil tycoon Haroldson L. Hunt, then one of the richest men in the world, remarked that, “for practical purposes, someone who has $200,000 a year is as well off as I am.” As he explained, “Money’s just a way of keeping score. It’s the game that matters.”

That game—the competition among the ultra-wealthy for influence, legacy, and fortune—came to seem somewhat more sinister after the Great Recession steepened social inequality. Following the lead of Thomas Piketty, whose “Capital in the Twenty-first Century” was published in 2013, some like-minded scholars probed the distant past, seeking to learn how deeply ingrained inequality had been in societies dissimilar to our own. “As Gods Among Men: A History of the Rich in the West” (Princeton), a new book by the Italian historian Guido Alfani, shares these scholars’ political perspective and their emphasis on the extremely long arc. But Alfani is interested less in the patterns of inequality than in the assemblage, use, and justification of great fortunes. The anxieties about extreme wealth which have recently shaped public debate—regarding its influence on politics, the way it tests the reach of states, and the ethics of philanthropy and private investment—turn out to be extraordinarily old. The rich have confused the rest of us from the beginning. When, in northern Italy on the cusp of the Renaissance, something like the modern mogul emerged (urban, financial, ostensibly meritocratic), many members of society were “troubled by the very existence of the rich,” Alfani writes. “Indeed, it would not be too far-fetched to state they did not know precisely what to do with them.”

 

In the more recent past, the super-rich themselves often dealt with the social problems of wealth simply by declining to discuss them. “The only time a whale gets harpooned is when he surfaces,” the reticent billionaire investor David Gottesman told the Times a decade ago. But lately whales have been surfacing everywhere. This past winter alone, the plutocrats Marc Rowan and Bill Ackman campaigned very publicly to remove the presidents of Penn and Harvard, and the investor Jeffrey Yass sought to have the Republican Party reverse itself on the sale of TikTok, in which he had a stake. The defining billionaire of the moment is Elon Musk, not just because of his trolling presence on social media but because of his salvific ambitions. Projects such as Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency and effective-altruism initiatives, and Sam Altman’s simultaneous warnings about and development of artificial intelligence, carry with them a similar imprint; for-profit maneuvers are described in the language of an encompassing idealism, as if those people in charge were envisioning not Q3 returns but the future of humanity itself.

As revelations of inequality have kept a spotlight on the wealthy, some of them, notably the heiress and philanthropist Abigail Disney, have argued for greater public giving. “It’s taxes or pitchforks,” a worried coalition wrote in an open letter released as the World Economic Forum convened in Davos in 2022. Those are the liberals; the more audible reaction has been a bristling insistence that the super-rich deserve their outsized fortune. “Our enemy is anti-merit, anti-ambition, anti-striving, anti-achievement, anti-greatness,” Marc Andreessen wrote in his “Techno-Optimist Manifesto,” widely applauded in Silicon Valley last fall. Speaking before the global élite at Davos this January, Javier Milei, the libertarian President of Argentina, declared, “Let no one tell you your ambition is immoral. . . . You are social benefactors. You are heroes.” Musk himself tweeted an enthusiastic reply by way of a meme: a man having sex with an attractive woman stares at a laptop screen on which Milei is speaking.

 

Critics of the ultra-wealthy have tended to describe them with analogies from the animal kingdom—pigs at a trough, vampire squid. Alfani offers a gentler comparison. “They are like the pearl in the oyster: shiny indeed, and produced by the living body of the oyster, but at the same time somewhat extraneous to the organism,” he writes. The question that animates his book also haunts our politics: What, exactly, do we want the rich to do, and how do we want them to be?

In the beginning, the job was to plunder and protect. Wealth lay in land, and in medieval Europe one amassed and held land by force of arms. In 1066, a Breton nobleman named Alan Rufus crossed the English Channel with his second cousin William the Conqueror, whose left flank he’d helped hold in a crucial battle. For this, he was granted a broad portfolio of lands in Cambridgeshire, many of which had belonged to the vanquished queen Edith the Fair. “But that was just the beginning of Rufus’ path to immense wealth,” Alfani writes. Soon, there was a rebellion in York, and Rufus was summoned to help suppress it, which he did in a brutal campaign that is thought to have killed as many as a hundred thousand people. The territories given to him grew and grew, until, Alfani reports, their net revenue may have exceeded seven per cent of England’s. No Englishman has ever again controlled such a large share.

Within a couple of hundred years, however, the richest Europeans were increasingly emerging not from real estate but from commerce and finance. The epicenter was northern Italy, where the traders of the so-called commercial revolution had followed old Roman caravan routes into the Middle East, returning to Genoa, Ragusa, and Pisa laden with goods, and where innovative Italian bankers had developed double-entry bookkeeping, letters of credit, and bills of exchange, in part to help manage papal taxes flowing from across Christendom to the Vatican. When the English Crown fought the Hundred Years’ War, it did so on credit extended by two Florentine family banks. When the Hapsburgs wanted to unify their empire, they contracted with Francesco Tasso of Bergamo to create a postal service; by the early sixteenth century, a package sent from Brussels could reach Innsbruck in five days.

 

These changes aroused the philosophers. Theologians emphasized the unnaturalness of finance: “Nummus non parit nummos,” Thomas Aquinas insisted—money does not generate money. “As they approached their deathbeds, usury was not a but the sin on the minds of the wealthy,” Tim Parks wrote in “Medici Money” (2006). Objections to the source of banking fortunes were intertwined with concerns about their scale. Nicole Oresme, an adviser to Charles V of France, argued, in the thirteen-seventies, that the rich ought to be banished to preserve the social balance in democratically governed cities: “The superabundantes are so unequal and exceed and overcome the others regarding their political power so much that it is reasonable to think that they are among the others as God is among men.” In the letters that the Renaissance wealthy wrote one another, there are traces of anxiety that both God and the public might disapprove of what they are doing. An associate of the fantastically rich Florentine merchant Francesco Datini warns him against opening a bank, arguing that he will be disdained even if he leaves the bulk of his fortune to found a hospital for the poor, and that he will lose his buona fama—his good name.

The hinge figure in Alfani’s history is Cosimo de’ Medici, who offered one solution to the problem of the rich. The Rome branch of the Banco de Medici already held the Vatican’s deposits when Cosimo took over the bank, in 1420, and he lent cautiously, married strategically, and expanded relentlessly. Parks writes, “Nothing in the history books gives us the sense of the man’s ever having been young.” In time, Cosimo antagonized the Florentine landowning dynasty headed by Rinaldo degli Albizzi, in part because of Cosimo’s financial ties to rival Italian republics. When Cosimo opposed a war with the state of Lucca, which the Albizzi family had pushed for, Rinaldo angled to have Cosimo imprisoned and charged with treason, punishable by death, in 1433. Cosimo managed to have his sentence commuted to exile, and took his banking operations and his favorite architect, Michelozzo, to Venice, giving the city a monastery with a new library and building for himself a spectacular palazzo. Within a year, the Albizzi war proved disastrous, and Florence was in financial ruin. It was a good time to have a phenomenal amount of cash. Cosimo agreed to pay off the Florentine war debt, and, as Niccolò Machiavelli wrote a century later, he was “hailed as the benefactor of the people and the father of his country.”

During the next thirty years, Cosimo schemed and maneuvered, holding power, deflecting allegations that he was a sponsor of sodomites, and beheading his political enemies (including two cousins of Machiavelli’s father). But he also endowed: he sponsored the Council of Florence, in 1438, to reconcile the Roman and Byzantine Churches, and he built the Platonic Academy and the Medici Library, likely the first public library in Renaissance Europe. Among his public-relations agents was the Tuscan scholar Poggio Bracciolini, once his tutor, whose view of the two roles the rich could play matched Cosimo’s example. They could beautify the city through philanthropy, Poggio wrote, and they could supply “barns of money” to rescue it from a crisis. With their “abundant means to aid the sick, the weak, to benefit many in their needs,” the rich were the “nervous system of the city.” You couldn’t function without them.

But the wealthy men of early modern Europe didn’t act much like Poggio had envisioned. Florence was an exception, both in its republican politics and in its humanist splendor; great fortunes were still often made through ambition and cunning at court. The indebted sixteenth-century privateer Francisco Pizarro held the Incan emperor Atahualpa hostage for a ransom of eighty-five cubic metres of gold and twice as much silver (Atahualpa paid; Pizarro killed him anyway) and used the money to buy political influence in Spain and a South American empire for his brother. In the late seventeenth century, the French merchant Antoine Crozat won a place at court through his loans to the Crown; his sons exploited the position to make advantageous loans to other nobles, and eventually secured the Crown’s monopoly on trade in the Louisiana Territory.

 

These were tempestuous centuries, with the social order regularly restructured, but Alfani seems little interested in political change, acknowledging the French Revolution and Karl Marx only in passing. He emphasizes instead the constant pattern of dynastic entrenchment. However much creativity and innovation were required to build the “massive number of wealthy dynasties” spawned during industrialization, he writes, those fortunes “often quickly took a different direction after the founders had passed away, for example, by pursuing politics and high office and/or merging with the nobility.” Give the Musk and Andreessen families a single generation, his account suggests, and their fortunes will be no more justifiable than that of the rentiers—which could help explain why present-day billionaires so want to demonstrate how hard they are working. Historically, some of this entrenchment happened almost naturally. In eighteenth-century Holland, the riches that arrived following a broad colonial and commercial expansion entirely upended the economic order, whereupon the insurgents swiftly became oligarchs: within a generation, eighty-three per cent of Rotterdam’s city councillors were a close relation of one another. At other times, the dynastic entrenchment was engineered. Of the eighteen marriages entered into by the grandchildren of Mayer Amschel Rothschild, sixteen were between an uncle and a niece or between first cousins.

That the politics of wealth are, irreducibly, the politics of inherited wealth was once much more obvious in Europe than in the United States. In 1910, a little more than half of the largest American fortunes derived primarily from inheritance, whereas in most European countries the figure was about seventy-five per cent. Then, after the shocks of the nineteen-thirties and the Second World War, those positions flipped. By the mid-twentieth century, the inheritance share of wealth was higher in the U.S. than in Europe. Perhaps because of the scale of fortunes that arose in America, or because of our explicitly democratic covenants, the rich here have tended to wrestle more directly with the contradictions of their position: There was the model of Andrew Carnegie, exploiting his workers while worrying over the possibility of a “rigid caste” system and establishing public libraries to help alleviate it. Then, there was Jay Gould, who denied that there was anything to apologize for, and forwent philanthropy in favor of building a railroad empire and marrying his daughter into the French nobility. What, really, are the rich supposed to do with their fortunes? They can spend their money lavishly, which everyone agrees is profligate and gross. Or they can save it, which deepens inequality and is probably worse. “Whatever they do, the rich attract criticism,” Alfani writes.

 

In the case of the robber barons, it took until 1907 for that criticism to break their system. The immediate cause was a failed effort by a trio of Montana magnates to corner the market on copper; when their position was exposed, there was a run on one of the banks that had backed them, the third largest trust on Wall Street, which soon collapsed. Very quickly, the brokerages and banks linked to the principals in the copper escapade came under threat, too. J. P. Morgan convened a coalition of the wealthy who plowed in their own cash to stop the run and perhaps saved the banking system. He had repeated Cosimo’s trick. But this time the public was appalled at the influence that a few plutocrats could have. After some antagonistic hearings, a progressive Congress created the Federal Reserve. Henceforth, the “barns of money” would be much larger, and everyone would contribute, not just the ultra-wealthy. Since the Renaissance, the rich had had two roles. Now they were down to one: charity.

In the past generation, the ranks of the super-rich have grown dramatically. Between 1990 and 2020, the number of billionaires in the U.S. increased ninefold. In China, the growth of the super-wealthy has been more explosive still: in a single year, between 2020 and 2021, that country’s billionaire count grew by sixty per cent. Private fortunes of this scale are fundamentally transnational and less moored to individual nations that might make demands of them. Consultancies now track the movement of high-net-worth individuals across borders—almost eleven thousand left China in 2022 alone. If the twenty-tens were the decade of tax offshoring, the twenty-twenties are the era of the Singapore family office: private-investment-and-philanthropy hubs for vast fortunes.

Progressives, for much of the past century, have seen the problem of wealth through the lens of redistribution: what they want of the rich is that they pay their fair share. Taxes “are the proper way (institutionally and culturally) for the rich to contribute to society,” Alfani concludes. “Not giving, but taxes.” This can seem a little quaint and unadventurous. But, in this jittery, politically tenuous post-pandemic period, the sentiment has weakened. Throughout the pandemic, at a time when public resources were under strain, and aggressive emergency aid for the poor made for an immediate reduction to inequality, no advanced economy (with the exception of Spain) meaningfully raised taxes on the rich.

The idea that the rich could have a role as a class is more than a little antiquated. Jeff Bezos and Abigail Disney have very different abilities, powers, and insights; we shouldn’t want them to do the same thing. But Alfani’s observation that the rich as a group have no clear social function is borne out by the fact that, in the Musk era, they have reacted to populist pressures largely by justifying their fortunes as individuals. When they maintain a combative social-media presence, fixate on meritocracy, employ idealistic language to describe for-profit enterprises, and draw attention to their heroic personal labors, the aim isn’t to rationalize concentrations of wealth generally but to defend one pile of wealth specifically. The class consciousness of our tycoons is fragile.

The threat that fortunes of such size inherently pose to democracy rightly preoccupies Alfani, though he comes to no firm conclusion about it. At the moment, the number of great fortunes and the difficulty of balancing their interests have made it difficult for an individual billionaire to exert influence over the rest. (The donations of the super-wealthy to the Republican and Democratic parties, for instance, roughly cancel each other out.) But that could change, which leaves the rest of us, and the legacy of the anti-inequality movement, in an anxious and contingent position. Instead of fighting a class war against the rich, we now find ourselves swimming with whales.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Early data shows positive job growth in distressed US counties as new federal policies take effect Timothy J. Bartik, Kathleen Bolter, Kyle Huisman

 

Communities are increasingly challenged to provide good jobs for their residents. Without good jobs, communities experience persistent adverse impacts: residents with less work experience have lower long-term earnings, and lower job growth and earnings reduce local tax revenues, which strains local government’s ability to fund essential services such as health care and education. A lack of good jobs also obstructs upward mobility for the next generation due to more unstable family conditions, elevated crime rates, and subpar schools.

To disrupt this cycle of community decline, there’s growing interest in place-based policies that seek to boost job growth in distressed areas. Research supports targeting job growth at distressed places, which benefits not only those communities by increasing employment rates, but also the country as a whole by increasing and sustaining national employment rates.

Bipartisan support for investing in distressed communities has increased in recent years, with both the Trump and Biden administrations enacting policies and programs that tried to target investments toward disadvantaged areas. The Opportunity Zones program enacted under the Trump administration provides favorable capital gains treatment for investment in state-designated distressed areas. However, most research on the program does not suggest a large effect on jobs.

The Biden administration has instituted several small-scale pilot programs to spur job growth in distressed places, such as the Build Back Better Regional Challenge, the Tech Hubs program, the Regional Innovation Engines program, the Recompete Pilot Program, and the Reconnecting Communities Pilot program. Some larger Biden administration programs with more general purposes may have also helped distressed places. These include legislation to provide state and local fiscal aid (the Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Fund), infrastructure investment (the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act), and “industrial policy” programs to promote investments in semiconductors and clean energy (the CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act). These more general purpose programs are more generously funded, and include some provisions that favor distressed places.

 

In our new report, we examine job growth data to see if these recent federal policies are creating jobs where they are most needed—in distressed communities. We find that job growth in distressed counties has in fact accelerated since 2019. At the same time, recent job growth trends have lagged in more prosperous counties. These overall job growth trends appear to have occurred in part due to trends in the growth of the manufacturing and high-tech industries, which policymakers have targeted.

It is important to note that these recent trends are modest. For example, job growth since 2019—while up in the most distressed counties—remains only slightly higher in these counties compared to growth rates from 2001 to 2019. The bottom line is that recent job growth in distressed counties, even if it persisted for a decade or more, would do little to decrease the gap in employment opportunities between these counties and the national average. Unless these trends accelerate, the opportunity gap facing residents of distressed communities will mostly remain the same.

Additionally, some of these recent trends may be due to causes other than federal policies. For example, the slowdown in high-tech growth in the least distressed counties appears to have begun in the 2007-2019 period. This pattern suggests causes other than recent federal policies, such as longer-term problems in some high-tech cities with higher housing and other local costs.

The long-term growth of distressed counties hinges on achieving above-average growth rates across multiple industries

 

To reach our conclusions, we first divided all U.S. counties into five quintiles according to their baseline level of economic distress. Counties are considered to be distressed if a low percentage of residents aged 25 to 54 are employed.

We focus on this “prime-age employment rate” for two reasons. First, the prime-age employment rate roughly controls for the age mix of a local population—for example, if a community has many college-age or retirement-age residents. Second, our society generally expects prime-age persons to work, so this is a good measure of whether a community is meeting that expectation. The baseline level of economic distress is determined from county prime-age employment rates at the start of each analysis period.

The contrast in prime-age employment rates between struggling and thriving areas is stark. In our lowest quintile, the most distressed counties have an average prime-age employment rate of 70.3%, according to the 2015-19 American Community Survey. Conversely, in the top quintile, the least distressed counties have an average prime-age employment rate of 84.5%.

Next, we used county-level data from Lightcast to look at employment trends. We examined the average annual job growth rate for three periods: prior to the Great Recession (2001 to 2007), the Great Recession and recovery (2007 to 2019), and the pandemic recession to present (2019 to 2022-23). In choosing these periods, we attempt to look at average employment growth from business cycle peak-to-peak because it is a better measure of long-term growth trends. However, we acknowledge that the 2022-23 data is not a peak (although it is also not close to the trough of a recession). Data availability dictates this endpoint.

In our analysis, we control for a county’s job growth due to its industrial mix—essentially, the job growth predicted if each industry in a county grew at that industry’s national growth rate. We label county job growth after this industrial mix control as “competitive job growth.”

Controlling for industry-mix-predicted growth has two advantages. First, it provides a clearer understanding of government policy’s possible effect on local job growth. How a county’s industries fare nationally is not easily changed by local policy or place-based policy. But policies regarding taxes, public services, infrastructure, and incentives may be able to affect whether a county’s industries can grow faster than their national counterparts.

 Second, once we adjust for industrial mix, a place’s ability to sustain competitive job growth is likely the primary factor influencing long-term growth. Over time, the industrial mix’s influence on local job growth tends to fade, as industrial location is more malleable in the long term. But if a place is able to sustain competitive job growth—the ability for its industries to grow faster than their national counterparts and gain market share—then that place will do better in the long term. This greater competitive job growth may be due to federal, state, or local policies, or any economic forces that make a place more attractive for job growth.

 

Competitive job growth in the most distressed counties has improved

When we look at overall competitive job growth, we find that in the most recent period (2019 to 2022-23), the most distressed counties show more favorable outcomes than they did up to the peak prior to the Great Recession (2001 to 2007) or from the peak just prior to the Great Recession to the pre-pandemic peak (2007 to 2019). Meanwhile, we find that the least distressed counties have seen their competitive job growth decline in the present period (2019 to 2022-23), after experiencing high levels of competitive job growth prior to the Great Recession (2001 to 2007), which then moderated during the Great Recession and recovery (2007 to 2019).

 

These changes over time are not trivial, but they remain modest. For example, if the most distressed county job growth trend of 2001 to 2007 had persisted for 10 years, the cumulative job growth deficit would have been 2.4% below the average county. If instead, the most distressed counties followed the growth trends of 2019 to 2022-23 for 10 years, the cumulative job growth advantage would have been only 0.8% above the average county.

How much of a difference would these possible cumulative job growth trends have made to these distressed counties’ employment rates? Based on prior research on how job growth in distressed counties affects employment rates, a cumulative growth deficit of 2.4% would lower the prime-age employment rate by 0.8 percentage points, whereas a cumulative job growth advantage of 0.8% would increase the prime-age employment rate by 0.3 percentage points. As mentioned, these distressed counties have a baseline prime-age employment rate of 70.3%, which is almost 9 percentage points below the national average of 79%. Therefore, the most recent trends favoring distressed counties would do little to close the gap between these counties and the national average. However, unlike past trends, these recent trends are not increasing employment rate gaps.

In the most recent period, distressed counties have seen positive job growth in manufacturing and high-tech industries

 Next, we turn to competitive job growth in the four industry groups receiving high levels of federal policy attention: manufacturing, high-tech, clean energy, and semiconductors.

 

We find that the most distressed counties did significantly better in job growth due to manufacturing in the most recent period (2019 to 2022-23) compared to either of the prior periods. Conversely, the least distressed counties in this group did significantly worse in competitive job growth due to manufacturing during the most recent period compared to either of the two prior periods. This finding is similar to other studies that have examined increased factory construction driven by Biden administration investments in “strategic sectors” such as advanced manufacturing. These investments have predominantly benefited U.S. counties with struggling economies. Other factors, such as a surge in reshoring following pandemic-related supply chain issues, may have also played a role.

High-tech industries show a similar trend, with the most distressed counties having higher levels of competitive job growth in the most recent period (2019 to 2022-2023) compared to the prior two periods. Again, this finding is in alignment with other studies showing that high-tech industries are diversifying geographically. However, while the most distressed counties show improvement in overall and tech-related job growth, it’s premature to attribute these trends solely to public policy without specific evidence.

As mentioned previously, the least distressed counties have seen a slowdown in competitive growth in high-tech industries. Much of the job growth in these counties was the result of investments prior to the Great Recession (2001 to 2007). The decline in high-tech growth in the least distressed counties during the Great Recession and recovery (2007 to 2019) might be attributed to rising housing and local costs, possibly outweighing agglomeration benefits for businesses to operate in high-tech centers such as Silicon Valley and Seattle.

 

The results for clean energy and semiconductors are somewhat less robust. For counties with different baselines of economic distress, the competitive job growth of these industries shows little change across the various periods.

Job growth trends in distressed counties are promising, but more substantial interventions are needed to fully close the employment rate gap

Recent trends indicate more favorable job growth for the most distressed counties compared to the least distressed ones, influenced partly by shifts in manufacturing and high-tech industries. These positive shifts, though promising, are merely a sign that further decline has halted rather than narrowing the overall employment rate gap.

To meaningfully bridge this gap, more substantial job growth or policy interventions are required. Additionally, the sustainability of these recent positive trends remains uncertain; they could either be strengthened with effective industrial policies or fade if reliant on temporary fiscal assistance. As economic conditions evolve, ongoing analysis will be crucial to understanding these trends’ persistence and implications.

Schools are bracing for widespread teacher layoffs. Here’s why By Katie Lobosco,

 

Washington CNN  — 

Schools across the country are announcing teacher and staff layoffs as districts brace for the end of a pandemic aid package that delivered the largest one-time federal investment in K-12 education.

The funds must be used by the end of September, creating a sharp funding cliff as schools also struggle with widespread enrollment declines and inflation.

Many districts have warned of layoffs as the current school year comes to a close and next year’s budgets are planned. The local headlines about teachers likely won’t help Americans who remain stubbornly pessimistic about the economy feel any better, adding to the challenge President Joe Biden faces to show voters how things are better than they were four years ago.

In Missoula, Montana, for example, the public school district is considering cutting 33 teaching positions and 13 administrative positions, including its special education director and fine arts director, as it faces a budget shortfall.

“The last time that MCPS (Missoula County Public Schools) saw these types of reductions was almost a generation ago,” superintendent Micah Hill said at a school board meeting earlier this year.

Not only is the federal funding ending, but enrollment at the district’s schools has fallen by nearly 500 students – or roughly 5% – since 2019. At the same time, the district is facing rising insurance and utility costs, Hill said in a statement sent to CNN.

In Arlington, Texas, the public school district will cut 275 positions at the end of this school year that were funded by the federal pandemic aid funds. They include staff that helped provide after-school care, tutoring and mental health services. The district, which employs about 8,500 staff in total, has said that employees affected by the layoffs can apply to other available positions.

And in Hartford, Connecticut, 30 teachers and 79 other staff members have been notified that they have lost their jobs. In total, about 384 positions will be cut, though some of them were already vacant and others won’t be filled after a staff member retires or leaves.

Enrollment at Hartford Public Schools is down 21% since 2010 due to a decline in the school-age population and a policy that allows Hartford residents to enroll at schools in neighboring districts.

“That is a long-term problem that has been exacerbated by the ESSER cliff,” superintendent Leslie Torres-Rodriguez said in a statement sent to CNN. ESSER, or Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief, refers to the grant program that provided the federal pandemic-related relief funds.

Pandemic aid comes to an end

After the Covid-19 pandemic hit in 2020, Congress authorized three rounds of federal funding to help K-12 schools respond.

Between March 2020 and March 2021, lawmakers authorized $190 billion in funding for K-12 schools – roughly six times what they receive from the federal government in a normal year.

At first, many districts used the money to reopen school buildings by buying masks and cleaning supplies and upgrading HVAC systems. The last and biggest round of funding, which was approved in 2021, required districts to spend at least 20% of the money to address learning loss – which could have included tutoring programs, summer school or extended school days.

Districts were given more than three years to spend the third round of money, with few other restrictions. It was largely up to local school boards to decide how to spend the funds on a broad range of pandemic-related needs, and they could choose to hire new teachers and staff even though they knew the funding would eventually dry up.

Although districts are required to report how they are spending the money, the reports often lack details, making it hard to track how many teachers were hired with the federal funding.

But a new report from CALDER, an education research center, that looked at Washington state found that roughly 12,000 positions, including more than 5,000 classroom teachers, were created with the federal funding.

“Those are people that would not have been hired if that extra funding did not exist,” said Dan Goldhaber, one of the authors of the report.

Districts that created new positions now need to decide how – and if – to fund them going forward.

How many teachers are at risk?

It may seem counterintuitive to be concerned about teacher layoffs when many districts have been struggling to fill open positions – especially in math, science and special education subjects and in rural areas.

But that’s partly because some districts, flush with pandemic funding, have been adding positions while enrollment in public schools has been declining nationally.

It’s hard to know just how many educator jobs are at risk across the country. But if staffing levels were to fall back to the same levels they were before the pandemic in 2018-19, districts would need to lay off 384,000 full-time staff, according to Chad Aldeman, an education analyst.

Who could get hit the hardest?

The federal pandemic aid law directs states to disburse the money like they do Title I funding, which means more money goes to districts with more low-income families – and those could be the ones facing the biggest budget shortfalls now.

“Students of color and students who are attending higher-poverty districts are going to be the ones to feel the brunt of the layoffs,” said Heather Peske, president of the National Council on Teacher Quality.

And when districts lay off staff, many fire the most recent hires. Peske said it’s better if districts approach layoffs with the performance of teachers in mind.

“We know that if they’re using seniority as the only criteria, they could be laying off teachers who are highly effective – and this will leave students at a major disadvantage,” Peske said.

She also recommends protecting those staff members who are in high demand, like math and special education teachers. 

 

U.S. medical volunteers in Rafah hospital say they've never seen a worse health crisis by Jane Arraf

 

AMMAN, Jordan — At one of the last functioning hospitals in Rafah, scenes of horror are conveyed in clinical descriptions as U.S. medical volunteers grapple with the effects of Israeli military operations and border closures after seven months of war in Gaza.

"They tried to suture up the hole in the heart — they couldn't," Dr. Usman Shah, from California, explains to Dr. Ammar Ghanem about a patient wounded in an explosion. Ghanem, a vice president of the Syrian American Medical Society, is overseeing the intensive care unit and made a video on Friday of his conversation with Shah.

 

"There was too much blood loss – the heart cavity, they tried to massage it but the heart cavity was empty," Shah says.

The two are members of a team of U.S. and U.S.-trained doctors who arrived in Rafah 10 days ago as part of a medical mission organized by the Palestinian American Medical Association. Now, nearing the end of the mission, with Israel closing the main border crossing, they are unable to leave.

In the video recorded Friday by Ghanem, Shah tells him about the other two patients who arrived that morning with non-survivable injuries.

Shah, dressed in blue scrubs, relates in an even voice how the jaw of one of the patients crumbled under his hand when he touched him. In the only visible sign of distress, he massages his temple and briefly closes his eyes as he tells the story.

Ghanem says conditions have worsened considerably since the border closure on May 7, with many of the local physicians and nurses unable to come to work because they have had to evacuate their families.

 

Prioritizing patient lives'

Most of the doctors and nurses on the mission are experienced conflict zone volunteers. But Ghanem says they have never seen anything like this.

 

"Unfortunately here I have to prioritize patient lives. When I say 'prioritizing patient lives' I mean I know that term but I never used it before until I came here," he said in an interview with NPR by video call from Rafah.

The benign-sounding term refers to deciding whom to stop treating and let die in order to divert resources to those with a better chance of surviving.

In one of two videos sent to NPR from the hospital Ghanem points out to a colleague one of his most difficult cases – an 18-year-old woman with a skull fracture so severe that brain material was visible. He said they did not have drugs strong enough to keep her sedated.

He said they stopped treatment for a woman suffering from acute pancreatitis after two days because she required continued oxygen that might support several other patients.

"So you see how sad this is?" he said in the interview. "I mean this patient is only like about 60 years old. We will not do this in the U.S. as you know, but this time of war and lack of resources that we are forced to do this."

Ghanem, who did not want the hospital identified for security reasons, estimated that two to three patients a day die in the intensive care unit because of lack of supplies or equipment.

A lack of essential supplies

Part of the problem is that items critical for hospitals are banned by Israel which says they can be used by Hamas for military purposes. The list of items it considers dual-use include some water disinfection materials.

 

The list does not cover all items that are reportedly banned. Save the Children has said it has had shipments rejected by Israel because they contained sleeping bags with zippers. An Israeli legal center, Geisha, has compiled a list of items that have been reported by organizations to have been rejected, including fishing rods and plastic sheets for tents.

The result, according to the U.N. and international aid agencies, is long delays and a spiraling crisis in humanitarian aid

 After the killing of seven workers in Gaza from the U.S.-based World Central Kitchen last month, Israel, under U.S. pressure, pledged to allow in more aid, improve coordination and to safeguard humanitarian staff.

A statement issued this week by seven major international aid organizations, including Save the Children and Care, said those pledges have not been fulfilled.

"Humanitarian actors see no significant improvement from Israeli authorities in addressing the dire challenges to prevent life-saving aid for Gaza's 2.3 million residents," the statement read.

Israel denies that it holds up aid.

International aid and medical workers who were either in Rafah or who had recently left, warned at a press briefing this week that the damage to Gaza infrastructure, lack of clean water, ongoing attacks and increasing starvation had brought humanitarian operations to the brink of collapse.

Israel has issued evacuation orders to sectors of Rafah, where more than 1.3 million people are crammed in near the Egyptian border. But for many there is no where to go.

Ghada al-Haddad, a Gaza-based communications officer for Oxfam, said families were pitching makeshift tents on sidewalks and in graveyards. She said others had moved to the beach, where there is no clean water and no sanitation.

Oxford professor Dr. Nick Maynard, a surgeon from England who traveled to Gaza three times on medical missions since the start of the war, said most of his time over Christmas was spent operating on major explosive injuries to the chest and abdomen. He said on his last trip this month that complications due to malnutrition in trauma cases had increased.

"I operated on many patients in the last two weeks who had awful complications from their abdominal surgery related to inadequate nutrition and particularly those with the abdominal wall breaking down," he said. "Literally their intestines end up hanging outside."

 

He said the hospitals lacked even colostomy bags along with materials to manage wounds and provide nutritional support.

Maynard said two of his patients, girls age 16 and 18, had survivable injuries but died last week as a direct result of malnutrition contributing to their deaths.

"We will see more of that in the coming months," he predicted

"We're at a tipping point right now," said Dr. John Kahler, co-founder of MedGlobal, a U.S.-based medical aid organization. He said Palestinian children before the war were getting only about 80% of the calories they needed. Now, seven months into the war, the effects of consistent deprivation are showing.

"It's at that time that the immunological system begins to break down," he said. "It's at that time where infections and complications of malnutrition will start."

 

Desperate for fuel

Aid officials said particularly alarming is the lack of fuel being allowed in. Most of Gaza's infrastructure has been destroyed and Israel has so far allowed fuel trucks to enter only through the main Rafah border crossing. That. crossing has now been closed since the beginning of the week.

"The whole aid operation runs on fuel," said Jeremy Konyndyk, president of Refugees International. "That means water can't be pumped, lights can't be kept on in hospitals, vehicles cannot distribute aid. So if the fuel is cut off the aid operation collapses, and it collapses quickly."

The Israeli military on Friday in an apparent response to the concerns said it had transferred more than 52,000 gallons of fuel to be made available to international organizations in Gaza through Kerem Shalom crossing into southern Gaza.

The head of the U.N.'s relief operations, Andrea De Domenico, told the French press agency AFP that amount of fuel was needed each day to maintain operations.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby on Friday said the U.S. wants the Rafah crossing, the only one able to handle large numbers of fuel trucks, opened immediately.

 

"Every day that that crossing is not available and usable for humanitarian assistance, there's going to be more suffering, and that's of deep concern to us," he told reporters. "And so once again, we urge the Israelis to open up that crossing to humanitarian assistance immediately, that aid is desperately needed."

At the Rafah hospital on Thursday, Monica Johnston, a burn nurse from Portland, Ore., was back at the ICU, only partially recovered from a gastrointestinal infection that left her dehydrated, dizzy and nauseous.

One of her patients was a 7-year-old boy with burns over 80% of his body.

"We're running out of pain medicine, running out of blood pressure medicine. So we cannot keep these people alive or comfortable. It's absolutely horrifying what we're seeing here," she said.

Johnston said everyone was desperately hoping for a cease-fire. (Israel says it is rejecting a sustained ceasefire because it needs to eliminate Hamas's military capability.)

"[A ceasefire]s will enable us to finish our mission, enable new help to come in, new supplies to come in, and eventually enable our safe return home," she said.

 

 

The man who took on the coal industry to save a forest - and won by Flora Drury,

 

The moment Alok Shukla first saw the forest in central India stretching out before him, he knew two things instantly.

One: that this forest - known as the lungs of Chhattisgarh, home to thousands of tribespeople, endangered animals and rare plants - was one of the most beautiful places he had ever seen.

And two: that he would dedicate his life to stopping the multi-billion dollar companies hoping to uproot it in search of the coal beneath its soil.

The only question was, how?

Twelve years later, Alok can smile at the memory. After all, what he has achieved in the intervening years has been impressive.

On Monday, the 43-year-old was awarded the Goldman Environmental Prize, otherwise known as the green Nobel.

But it started with small steps.

Back in 2012, the Hasdeo Aranya forest in Chhattisgarh state and its 657 bio-diversity rich square miles (1,071km sq) were under threat, thanks to its massive coal deposits - totalling an estimated 5.6 billion tonnes.

In India, the world's second largest consumer of coal after China, those deposits are a highly valuable commodity.

 

But the value to the tribespeople - known collectively as the Adivasi - and the animals like elephants, sloth bears, leopards and wolves, not to mention the tigers which use it as a corridor between habitats, or the birds which live in the trees, was incalculable to Alok.

He wasn't the only one to recognise the value of the land: local authorities had declared it protected a few years earlier - although this was never formal.

Despite this, so-called coal blocks in the forest were put up for auction. The powerful multinational Adani group would apply to build five mines in the area between 2010 and 2015. More companies, and more mines, would follow.

 

"I still vividly remember the day I went there," Alok says. "It's such a beautiful forest - and unfortunately that forest is going to be destroyed by coal mining.

"But much worse than that, the local tribal communities there who have been conserving the forest for centuries - they're not even aware of what the impacts of mining would be... or what the legal provisions and protections [are that would help them save it]."

The loss of their traditional home, Alok feared, would be devastating.

"The Adivasis have been living there for several centuries. They know nothing else, but these forests. It's part of their identity."

And they were already trying to fight back - the problem was, each village was fighting alone.

 

Alok realised they were doomed to lose the battle unless everyone came together. Two mines had already begun production because the resistance had failed.

"It's not just a fight for one village in fact, it's a fight for the entire region," he says.

Out of this, the Save Hasdeo Aranya Resistance Committee - an informal alliance of grassroots movements - grew, teaching people about the local laws and rights available. It also linked the different groups together effectively for the first time.

But it wasn't easy. In 2020, more coal mines were proposed.

With Covid racing across India, Alok once again began organising.

Community pressure led to three of the mines being shelved that September. The next month, the community fought to have almost a million acres designated as an elephant reserve.

Then central government stepped in to push forward plans to auction off 21 coal blocks under emergency provisions.

 

It would take another 18 months - along with an online campaign united under the hashtag #SaveHasdeo, a march on the state capital, and even a tree hugging sit-in - for the 21 coal blocks to finally be cancelled.

None of it has been easy. The 12-year battle, he admits, has taken a steely resolve on his part, and on the part of the forest communities.

"This is a fight in some sense between the people's lives and livelihoods and forests on the one hand, and the corporate profits on the other hand," he explains.

"Naturally any company whose profits and viability is at stake will try to do all kinds of steps to make sure that they get the land."

And even now, there are still fights to be won - land which needs to be rejuvenated after being destroyed and trees which are still in danger.

Alok hopes winning the Goldman prize, which recognises a handful of grassroots campaigners from around the world each year, will inspire other movements globally - and once again focus attention on the forest.

"Any tree being cut in Hasdeo Aranya is wrong, and our effort will be to save every tree," he vows.

 

Friday, May 10, 2024

Trump promises to deport all undocumented immigrants, resurrecting a 1950s strategy − but it didn’t work then and is less likely to do so now

  By

 

While campaigning in Iowa last September, former President Donald Trump made a promise to voters if he were elected again: “Following the Eisenhower model, we will carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” he said. Trump, who made a similar pledge during his first presidential campaign, has recently repeated this promise at rallies across the country.

Trump was referring to Operation Wetback, a military-style campaign launched by the Eisenhower administration in the summer of 1954 to end undocumented immigration by deporting hundreds of thousands of Mexicans. “Wetback” was a widely used ethnic slur for Mexicans who illegally crossed the Rio Grande, the river dividing Mexico and the U.S.

Trump says that he can replicate Operation Wetback on a much grander scale by setting up temporary immigration detention centers and relying on local, state and federal authorities, including National Guard troops, to remove the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants now living in the U.S.

As a migration scholar, I find Trump’s proposal to be both disturbing and misleading. Besides playing to unfounded and dehumanizing fears of an immigrant invasion, it misrepresents the context and impact of Eisenhower’s policy while ignoring the vastly changed landscape of U.S. immigration today.

 

Operation Wetback

In May 1954, U.S. Attorney General Harold Brownell appointed Joseph Swing, a retired general, to lead the Immigration and Naturalization Service, or INS, in a “special program to apprehend and deport aliens illegally in this country from areas along the southern border.” Until 2003, the INS was responsible for immigration and border control, now handled by multiple federal agencies, including Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Swing ramped up a decade-long practice of using special task forces composed of INS agents who could be rapidly deployed where needed in order to locate and deport undocumented workers. The operation began in California and then spread to Arizona and Texas. INS agents set up roadblocks and raided fields, factories, neighborhoods and saloons where immigrants were working or socializing. The INS also built a vast wire-fenced security camp, according to the Los Angeles Times, in order to detain apprehended immigrants in Los Angeles before sending them to the border.

Captured immigrants were put on hot, overcrowded buses or rickety boats and sent to designated border crossings in Arizona and Texas, where they were forced to cross back into Mexico. Some found themselves stranded in the Mexican desert just over the border. In one incident, 88 migrants died of sunstroke before the Red Cross arrived with water and medical attention. Others were delivered to Mexican authorities, who loaded them onto trains headed deeper into Mexico.

By mid-August, INS agents had deported more than 100,000 immigrants across the U.S. Southwest. Fearing apprehension, thousands more reportedly fled back to Mexico on their own. Most of these immigrants were young Mexican men, but the INS also targeted families, removing nearly 9,000 family members, including children, from the Rio Grande Valley in August. There is also evidence of U.S. citizens getting caught up in the INS sweeps.

Operation Wetback wound down its operations a few months later, and Swing declared in January 1955 that “the day of the wetback is over.” The INS disbanded its special mobile task forces, and the deportation of undocumented immigrants plummeted over the next decade.

Not just about deportation

Operation Wetback made the headlines and disrupted countless lives, but it was more show than substance when it came to deportation.

The government’s claim to have deported more than 1 million Mexicans during the summer of 1954 does not stand up to scrutiny. The 1.1 million figure was for the entire fiscal year, which ended in June 1954, and a sizable share of these apprehensions were repeat arrests, sometimes in a single day. Moreover, over 97% of these deportations occurred without a formal order of removal. Instead, migrants agreed, or were coerced, to leave the country after being apprehended.

Despite Trump-like rhetoric decrying a “wetback invasion” across the U.S.-Mexico border, Operation Wetback’s main objective was not to remove Mexican immigrants but rather to frighten U.S. farmers, especially in Texas, into hiring them legally.

This tactic largely worked. A crucial but often overlooked detail about Operation Wetback is that it happened at the same time as the Bracero Program, a massive guest-worker program between the U.S. and Mexico. Between 1942 and 1964, U.S. employers issued over 4.6 million short-term contracts to more than 400,000 Mexican farm workers. Nearly three-quarters of these contracts were issued between 1955 and 1964 – after the INS carried out Operation Wetback.

Operation Wetback is unlikely to have led to a dramatic decline in undocumented immigration had Mexican workers not had a legal option for entering the United States. As one immigrant caught up in Operation Wetback commented, “I will come back – legally, if possible. If not, I’ll just walk across again.”

The INS explicitly recognized the connection between the Bracero Program and the decline in undocumented immigration in a 1958 report, stating that “should … a restriction be placed on the number of braceros allowed to enter the United States, we can look forward to a large increase in the number of illegal alien entrants into the United States.”

It is no coincidence that the lull in migrants illegally crossing the U.S-Mexico border after Operation Wetback did not last once the Bracero Program ended in 1964. Mexicans still had strong incentives to migrate, but now they had to do so without visas or work contracts, contributing to a steady increase in border arrests after 1965 that surpassed 1 million in 1976 and reached nearly 2 million in 2000.

Real lessons

If he were to win the presidency again, Trump would have the legal authority to deport undocumented immigrants, but the logistical, political and legal obstacles to doing so quickly and massively are even greater today than they were in the 1950s.

First, most undocumented immigrants now live in cities, where immigrant sweeps are more difficult to carry out. The INS learned this lesson when Operation Wetback shifted from the largely rural Southwest to urban areas in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest in September 1954. Despite transferring hundreds of agents to these locations and using similar tactics, INS agents produced far fewer apprehensions as they struggled to find and detain immigrants.

Second, the U.S. undocumented population is much more dispersed and diverse than in the 1950s. Today, Mexicans are no longer in the majority, and nearly half of undocumented immigrants live outside the six major hubs for immigrants – California, Texas, Florida, New York, New Jersey and Illinois.

Third, most undocumented immigrants in the U.S. did not sneak across the border. An estimated 42% entered the country legally but overstayed a visa illegally. Another 17% requested and received a short-term legal status that protects them from immediate deportation.

Finally, mass deportations are likely to spark a more broad-based resistance today than happened in the 1950s. Once staunchly opposed to undocumented immigration, most labor unions and Mexican-American organizations are now in the pro-immigrant camp. Likewise, the Mexican government, which helped with Operation Wetback, is unlikely to allow massive numbers of non-Mexicans to be deported to its territory without the proper documentation.

Trump has not supported a way to provide undocumented immigrants with a legal alternative, which means that migrants will keep finding ways to cross illegally.