Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Why is the Federal Reserve independent, and what does that mean in practice? by David Wessel

 

What does “independence” mean?

The Federal Reserve was created by an act of Congress in 1913 and, since 1977, has been charged with promoting maximum employment and stable prices. In practice, independence means that the Fed can set interest rates without interference from Congress or the White House even if politicians are unhappy with Fed policy—and say so publicly. 

Congress could, of course, change the law, but no bill to alter the Fed’s mandate or governance has gone very far. That’s because members of Congress generally recognize that if they or the president were able to directly influence the setting of interest rates, higher inflation would be the likely outcome.

Central banks in nearly all major capitalist democracies are similarly insulated: Elected governments set the central bank’s mandate, but the central banks have the freedom to deploy their tools (primarily interest rates) to achieve that mandate. The rationale is that elected politicians will tend to favor lower interest rates now to boost the economy, but this comes at the expense of more inflation later, and that’s not in the best interests of the overall economy. Independent central bankers, the argument goes, can make unpopular decisions, such as raising interest rates, when circumstances demand. Academic research supports the case that economies with independent central banks tend to have lower—and less volatile—inflation rates.

Here’s how Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, now at Brookings, put it in a 2010 speech: “Policymakers in a central bank subject to short-term political influence may face pressures to overstimulate the economy to achieve short-term output and employment gains that exceed the economy’s underlying potential. Such gains may be popular at first, and thus helpful in an election campaign, but they are not sustainable and soon evaporate, leaving behind only inflationary pressures that worsen the economy’s longer-term prospects. Thus, political interference in monetary policy can generate undesirable boom-bust cycles that ultimately lead to both a less stable economy and higher inflation…”

 “To be clear,” he added, “I am by no means advocating unconditional independence for central banks. First, for its policy independence to be democratically legitimate, the central bank must be accountable to the public for its actions … [T]he goals of policy should be set by the government, not by the central bank itself; and the central bank must regularly demonstrate that it is appropriately pursuing its mandated goals. Demonstrating its fidelity to its mandate in turn requires that the central bank be transparent about its economic outlook and policy strategy.”

 

What authority does President Trump have to hire and fire members of the Federal Reserve Board?

A president can influence Fed policy mainly through his nomination of members of the Federal Reserve Board, subject to confirmation by the Senate. Jay Powell’s term as Fed chair expires in May 2026, but he could remain a member of the Board until January 2028. There is precedent for this: Marriner Eccles was replaced as Fed chair in 1948 by President Truman, but he continued to serve as a Fed governor until 1951. For more on the terms of Fed officials, read this Hutchins Center explainer.

The Federal Reserve Act says that Fed governors can be removed by the president before the expiration of their terms only “for cause.” In a 1935 case (Humphrey’s Executor v. United States), the Supreme Court ruled that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt could not fire a member of the Federal Trade Commission due to policy disagreements, because the law said commissioners could be removed only for “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office.” (FDR said FTC’s work could be “carried out most effectively with personnel of my own selection.”) The Supreme Court has distinguished between agencies, such as the Fed, that are overseen by multi-member boards, and those run by a single individual. In the latter, such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the court has said the president does have the power to fire the director before his or her term expires.

Powell has said that it is “not permitted under law” for the president to fire him and that he will not resign if Trump asks him to do so. President Trump has said that he doesn’t plan to fire him. But the Fed’s vice chair for (bank) supervision, Michael Barr, resigned that post, to avoid a legal showdown over whether the president could fire him. Barr remains a member of the Board.

Trump has tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, arguing that her alleged mortgage fraud is sufficient cause. She has not been formally charged with any wrongdoing and denies any.  Federal courts, including the Supreme Court, have allowed her to remain on the Board while the dispute is pending. Former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Janet Yellen, along with other former economic policy officials from Republican and Democratic administrations, advised the Supreme Court in an amicus brief that removing Cook from the Board immediately “would expose the Federal Reserve to political influences, thereby eroding public confidence in the Fed’s independence and jeopardizing the credibility and efficacy of U.S. monetary policy.”

 

In March 2025, a federal judge, citing Humphrey’s Executor, ruled that Trump could not legally fire Gwynne Wilcox as a member of the National Labor Relations Board because the law says the president can remove an NLRB member “upon notice and hearing, for neglect of duty or malfeasance in office, but for no other cause.” The Trump administration appealed to the Supreme Court. The Trump Justice Department has said that “for-cause removal provisions that apply to members of multi-member regulatory commissions are unconstitutional.” Added Solicitor General D. John Sauer: “The president should not be forced to delegate his executive power to agency heads who are demonstrably at odds with the administration’s policy objectives for a single day—much less for the months that it would likely take for the courts to resolve this litigation.”

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, in a footnote in a 2024 decision involving the financing of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, described the Federal Reserve Board as “a unique institution with a unique historical background … a special arrangement sanctioned by history.”  That suggests he is likely to side with the Fed should its independence or governance be challenged.

In a May 2025 order involving the president’s power to fire members of the National Labor Relations Board and the Merit Systems Protection Board, the Supreme Court echoed the Alito view that the Fed is different and reinforced expectations that that the president cannot fire Fed board members. “The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct history tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States,” the court said.

What about the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks?

Each of the 12 Federal Reserve banks has a nine-member, private-sector board of directors which appoints its president, subject to approval of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington. The presidents are appointed for a term of five years, all of which expire on the last day of February in years ending in 1 and 6 (that is, in 2026 and 2031). In December 2025, the Board renewed their terms through 2031.

At any one time, five of the 12 presidents serve alongside the seven Fed governors in Washington on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates. In the 1980s, Sen. John Melcher (D-Mont.) challenged this in federal court, arguing that because the five presidents are “officers” of the United States, they must be appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. In 1987, a federal appeals court rejected that argument, reasoning that Congress could change the law if it didn’t like it. The senator appealed. The Supreme Court didn’t take the case.

A 2019 opinion by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel said that the Reserve Bank presidents are “inferior officers” under the constitution and therefore are subject to “plenary removal” by the Fed Board of Governors in Washington. The Board, however, has never fired any of the presidents, nor has this opinion ever been tested in litigation.

What are the legal constraints on the Fed’s ability to buy securities and lend money?

The Federal Reserve Act says the Fed can (and does) buy and sell U.S. government securities and mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the federal government, as well as municipal bonds with a maturity of up to six months. Under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, the Fed has emergency lending authority which it can invoke only with the approval of the Secretary of the Treasury. The Fed used this authority extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic, offering loans to municipalities and corporations, among other things. (For details, see this Hutchins Center explainer.)

A major function of the Fed and other central banks is to lend to solvent banks when they need cash to meet depositors’ demands, provided the banks are solvent and can post collateral. These loans, by law, must be “secured to the satisfaction” of the Reserve Bank in whose district the borrower is headquartered. 

What about bank regulation?

The Fed is less independent in its role overseeing the safety and soundness of banks and other financial institutions than in monetary policy. It directly supervises and regulates nearly 3,800 bank holding companies, 700 state-chartered banks, and several financial market utilities, such as the Clearing House Payments Company, which operates a bank-to-bank payments system. The Fed shares some of these responsibilities with other federal agencies, including the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Some Fed regulations on banking can be overturned by Congress under the Congressional Review Act. The act, however, specifically exempts Fed “rules that concern monetary policy.”

 

In February 2025, Trump signed an executive order that, among other things, said that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) shall “review independent regulatory agencies’ obligations for consistency with the President’s policies and priorities.” The order explicitly excluded the Fed “in its conduct of monetary authority,” but said it applies to the Fed’s “supervision and regulation of financial institutions.”

The executive order also said that OMB can adjust agencies’ “apportionments” to prohibit them from “expending appropriations on particular activities, functions, projects, or objects, so long as such restrictions are consistent with law.” (In OMB parlance, “apportionment” is a legally binding, OMB-approved “plan to use budgetary resources” consistent with congressional appropriations.)

It is not clear if or how that applies to the Fed’s supervisory and regulatory operations. In contrast to most other arms of the federal government, Congress does not decide how much the Fed spends on its operations. The Fed’s income comes primarily from the interest it earns on government securities it buys in the secondary market and, when its revenue exceeds its expenses, it turns the surplus over to the Treasury. 

Friday, January 9, 2026

The GOP’s growing dilemma on Greenland by Aaron Blake

 

It was as telling a moment as any when it comes to the Republican Party’s relationship with President Donald Trump.

At a June hearing, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made it sound a little like the Trump administration had drafted plans to take Greenland by military force (among many other such plans in the Pentagon’s possession).

That couldn’t possibly be true, Republican Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio seemed to wager.

“You are not confirming in your testimony today that at the Pentagon there are plans for invading or taking by force Greenland, correct?” Turner said. 

 But Hegseth responded merely that the Pentagon “has plans for any number of contingencies.”

So, Turner asked again, adding, “I sure as hell hope that it is not your testimony.”

But Hegseth again declined to back off, saying only: “We look forward to working with Greenland to ensure that it is secured from any potential threats.” 

 Republicans have spent years picking and choosing which Trump ideas they want to take seriously; such is the political upside of Trump’s penchant for spouting nonsense.

But it’s become increasingly clear that taking Greenland isn’t just a lark for Trump, and Republicans are starting to treat it accordingly. 

 Even shy of invading Greenland, merely applying pressure on NATO ally Denmark to sell this massive, semiautonomous island that it controls risks severely inflaming the Western military alliance.

The question now is how Republicans handle the situation, with the possibility of a significant vote being forced to the Senate floor by Democrat Ruben Gallego of Arizona on the horizon.

There are few good options for the GOP. 

 Save for a few advocates for securing Greenland, the prevailing hope seems to be that Trump isn’t actually all that serious about this and will eventually move on. Many Republicans are couching their statements accordingly.

But Trump’s intentions are getting increasingly difficult to dismiss, given the US mere days ago ousted the leader of Venezuela and that his administration is talking more forthrightly now about its expansionist plans for the Western Hemisphere – and Greenland more specifically. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt in a statement Tuesday and a briefing Wednesday explicitly reserved a military option in Greenland. 

 So, Republicans are starting to step forward to throw up caution flags.

There were joint bipartisan statements from key lawmakers in both the House and Senate. 

 In the House, Congressional Friends of Denmark Caucus co-chair Blake Moore of Utah joined with a Democrat to say, “Sabre-rattling about annexing Greenland is needlessly dangerous.”

Senate NATO Observer Group co-chair Thom Tillis of North Carolina also issued a statement with his Democratic counterpart cautioning Trump that even “coercion or external pressure” violated the principles of the alliance.

Among the other reviews:

  • Sen. Jerry Moran of Kansas called it “none of our business” and warned about the “demise of NATO.”
  • Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said the United States “must see it as an ally, not an asset, and focus on continued partnership rather than possession.”
  • Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa urged the administration to be “good partners to Denmark.”
  • Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska told CNN’s Jake Tapper: “It’s unacceptable and I hope other Republicans line up behind me and make it clear to the White House that it’s wrong.”

Other prominent Republicans have been reluctant to go that far. But we are seeing signs of them suggesting the White House might want to pump the brakes. 

 House Speaker Mike Johnson said Tuesday evening of military action: “No, I don’t think that’s appropriate.” He added Wednesday that “all this stuff about military action and all that, I don’t even think that’s a possibility.”

“I don’t see military action being an option there,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday. He added that he hoped “there’s something there that can be worked out” on security issues with Greenland.

“We need to not threaten a peaceful nation that’s an ally where we have a military base already,” said Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma. 

 Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky also opposed a military option, and Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana called it “weapons-grade stupid.” 

 The good news for Republicans is that, to the extent they don’t want the military option on the table, they have the opportunity to take it off.

Gallego is introducing a resolution to block a US military invasion of Greenland before it could be launched. Because such measures are privileged, it could earn a vote soon

 

Similar efforts to curb Trump’s strikes on alleged drug boats and to block his attack on Venezuela failed. And Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is flatly predicting the GOP-controlled Congress will do nothing to rein in Trump’s war powers on anything.

But Greenland certainly poses more difficult dynamics than those other votes.

While both the boat strikes and Trump’s ouster of Nicolás Maduro are both legally dubious, they at least aligned with the GOP’s political goals.

When it comes to Greenland, this appears to be something that very few Americans are asking for. Polls have shown Americans oppose taking the island by margins large as 49 points, and most show even Republicans generally oppose the idea. 

 A March Reuters-Ipsos poll showed just 13% of Americans even wanted to apply pressure on Denmark to sell Greenland.

 The NATO situation is also extremely relevant. While Trump has regularly lashed out at NATO and NATO allies, this is one of his biggest provocations to date. Greenland isn’t just a semiautonomous territory, after all; it’s a semiautonomous territory controlled by NATO ally Denmark.

However seriously he’s doing it, Trump is effectively threatening to invade a NATO ally. And NATO countries are obliged to treat an attack on one of them as an attack on all of them. That even raises the seemingly ridiculous prospect of the rest of NATO coming to Greenland’s defense against the United States

 

Republicans also can’t pretend that this just isn’t a serious proposal anymore. The White House and the administration have repeatedly left this option open, including explicitly in Leavitt’s comments this week.

Leavitt said that “utilizing the U.S. Military is always an option at the Commander in Chief’s disposal.” She was asked about taking the military option off the table again Wednesday, and declined to do so. “All options are always on the table for President Trump,” Leavitt said. And White House adviser Stephen Miller stressed the might of the country’s armed forces when he told CNN’s Tapper this week that nobody would defend Greenland militarily from the United States.

To the extent Senate or House Republicans decline to block Trump from invading Greenland, they’d be effectively allowing him to invade a NATO ally, if that’s what he decides to do. That’s certainly not something the NATO hawks would relish.

Among the many tough votes Trump has forced upon his party, this would certainly be up there.

Republicans might not have wanted to believe this was their reality. But as usual with Trump, you ignore his intentions at your peril. 

 

Tuesday, January 6, 2026

How museums can help rebuild trust in a divided America by Devon Akmon

 

Share article

Across the United States, political polarization has deepened to historic levels. In a report published in May 2025, the Pew Research Center found that Americans are more divided and less trusting of one another than at any point in recent decades. Yet museums remain among the few places where curiosity still draws people across political and cultural lines.

Ninety-two percent of adults view museums as nonpartisan sources of education, according to a report from Wilkening Consulting. People also trust museums for presenting fact-based, authentic and research-driven information. Ninety-six percent of Americans say they would support lawmakers who fund museums, and 97% see museums as vital educational assets to their communities. These findings place museums among the most trusted institutions in American life, ranking just behind friends and family.

That rare level of confidence gives museums both an opportunity and a responsibility. As debates over science, history and art intensify, they are being called upon to do something more fundamental: to model how people might think and listen together.

As director of the Michigan State University Museum in East Lansing, and core faculty in the Arts, Cultural Management and Museum Studies program at MSU, I see every day how these spaces can foster understanding.

Questioning algorithms, fostering dialogue

At the MSU Museum, an upcoming exhibition titled “Blurred Realities” will ask a question that feels urgent far beyond its gallery walls: How do we decide what is true?

Opening in January 2026, “Blurred Realities” examines how information, bias and technology shape people’s understanding of the world. Rather than advancing a single authoritative narrative, the exhibition creates space for inquiry, encouraging visitors to reflect on how beliefs are formed, how digital systems influence perception, and how imagination reshapes memory and identity. In doing so, the exhibition invites thoughtful engagement with the stories, data and algorithms that shape contemporary life, and considers what it means to navigate truth in an increasingly complex information environment.

 Central to this effort are the museum’s “CoLaborators,” a team of college students trained to facilitate small, idea-driven conversations that encourage curiosity and exchange between museum visitors. They engage guests in open conversations that respond to their interests in the moment. This approach differs from the traditional docent model, which often centers on the transmission of information. Instead, the students’ work transforms the gallery into a living forum where questions matter more than conclusions.

In my experience, this is just one of many ways that museums are engaging the communities they serve to explore timely and relevant topics that shape contemporary life.

 

Catalysts for civic connection

Museums have long been places to explore the natural world, cultural artifacts and scientific discovery.

History museums have hosted community storytelling projects. An excellent example is the “Your Story, Our Story” project led by the Tenement Museum in New York.

Science museums, including the Natural History Museum of Utah, have led public discussions on climate change.

Art and history museums have opened their galleries and programming spaces to conversations about identity and belonging. The Charles H. Wright Museum of African American History held an exhibition centered on Detroiters exonerated of crimes and themes of justice, identity and renewal.

The Institute of Museum and Library Services describes museums and libraries as community catalysts that support social well-being through cultural engagement, shared identity and social connection. In a time when public debate often happens online, in anger and lacking nuance, museums offer something different: a physical place where curiosity can thrive and where people can pause, reflect and listen.

The more than 35,000 museums across the United States represent a remarkably broad and diverse field, rooted in communities of every size and serving people where they live and learn. Their core work has traditionally focused on collecting, researching, preserving and interpreting objects of historical, cultural and scientific significance.

As social divisions grow, they are becoming important forms of social infrastructure where people can encounter different perspectives. In many cases, their roles are also expanding as museums help the public engage with the pressing questions of our time.

The Association of Science and Technology Centers notes that rising mistrust in institutions, the spread of misinformation and the weakening of shared public spaces are creating new challenges for organizations that engage the public. In recent years, these trends are prompting museums to think about their role in supporting connection and understanding. Across the country, institutions that once focused mainly on preservation and education are reframing their purpose to include convening civic dialogue and helping visitors navigate complex issues together.

Preserving trust in an age of discontent

As museums step more visibly into the civic sphere, they also face new pressures. Efforts to engage with difficult topics can draw criticism from across the political spectrum.

Some question why museums address issues like race, climate or misinformation at all, while others expect them to go further. The result can be a delicate balance between maintaining trust and remaining relevant. Staff and volunteers are expected to create inclusive environments while navigating limited resources, public scrutiny and, sometimes, personal attacks. Smaller institutions may lack the capacity to sustain long-term partnerships or withstand political pushback.

I believe avoiding these conversations carries its own risks. It can reinforce perceptions that museums are detached from the realities of the communities they serve. The key question we ask ourselves at the MSU Museum is not whether to engage with societal issues, but how to do so with care, humility and authenticity. That involves listening as much as leading and viewing dialogue itself as part of our educational mission.

At a moment when trust in public institutions is fragile, museums hold a rare and valuable position. They are places where people still expect to learn something new and to encounter ideas different from their own. When museums invite visitors to think together about complex issues, whether through exhibitions, conversations or community partnerships, they help nurture the habits of curiosity and empathy that democracy depend on. These interactions may not resolve polarization, but they can model a more constructive way of engaging with difference.

Within a museum’s walls, people can explore difficult ideas without the noise of argument or the demand to take sides. In doing so, museums continue their essential work, not only preserving the past but helping us imagine a shared future built on understanding, curiosity and trust.

 


Trump wants U.S. oil companies in Venezuela. Here's what to know By Julia Simon

 

Hours after the U.S. military captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, President Trump made it clear that the U.S. operation is about — at least in part — control of Venezuela's oil.

"We're going to have our very large U.S. oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country," Trump said during a press conference Saturday.

The capture of Maduro and Trump's comments comes at a time when even a country like Venezuela — with one of the biggest oil resources in the world — isn't a sure bet for attracting major oil companies.

 

Many oil companies have been bruised by their past experiences operating in the country. The global oil market is currently facing an oversupply. Oil prices are below $60 a barrel, and long-term projections for oil demand are unclear as the world shifts to more electric vehicles.

Trump promises to "run the country" and make way for U.S. oil companies in Venezuela. However, there's a long history of U.S. interventions in Latin America and the Middle East not going well, oil experts tell NPR.

Here's what you need to know about Venezuela's oil.

Venezuela has huge oil reserves, but now produces a fraction of what it used to

Venezuela was once one of the biggest global oil producers and was one of the main founders of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a group of some of the world's biggest oil producers, whose decisions help determine global oil prices. Venezuela has the largest proven reserves of oil in the world, according to OPEC.

But while the country was producing more than 3 million barrels a day a few decades ago, today Venezuela produces only about a million barrels a day, or roughly 1% of global oil output. The U.S. produces about 13 million barrels a day.

 Much of Venezuela's oil went to refineries in the U.S. Now much of it goes to China.

Not all crude oil is the same — some oil is physically lighter and easier for refineries to process. Venezuela's oil is heavy and dense, and requires special refineries. Burning any type of oil contributes to climate change, but Venezuela's oil is "among the dirtiest oils in the world to produce when it comes to global warming," says Paasha Mahdavi, associate professor of political science at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

 

Venezuela owes some U.S. oil companies billions

U.S. oil companies like Chevron began drilling in Venezuela about one hundred years ago and played a key role in developing the country's oil sector.

But around 2004 to 2007, then-President Hugo Chávez "basically forcefully renegotiated contracts" with international oil companies, says Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University.

ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips left the country in 2007 and then took the Venezuelan government to international arbitration courts. The courts ordered Venezuela to pay ConocoPhillips over $10 billion and ExxonMobil over $1 billion. Venezuela has only paid a fraction of those sums to ExxonMobil and to ConocoPhillips.

Chevron, however, stayed in Venezuela — although " they didn't like it," says Gerald Kepes, president of Competitive Energy Strategies, an energy consultancy in Washington, D.C.

Chevron today produces about a quarter of Venezuela's oil.

In response to the news of Maduro's capture, Chevron spokesperson Bill Turenne said in an email, "Chevron remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets. We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations."

Trump has said that Venezuela has "stolen" U.S. investment in the country's energy sector.

Will U.S. oil companies return?

Venezuela is what the oil industry calls a "brownfield" — meaning it's well established, and oil companies have a fairly good idea of what they will find when they drill. For companies like ConocoPhillips, returning to Venezuela could be an opportunity to recoup some of the billions owed to them by the government, Monaldi says.

 

In an email, ConocoPhillips spokesperson Dennis Nuss wrote, "ConocoPhillips is monitoring developments in Venezuela and their potential implications for global energy supply and stability. It would be premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments."

ExxonMobil did not respond to a request for comment.

Still, this isn't the best time to add to the global oil supply, Monaldi says. There's currently a worldwide glut of oil. Also, because Venezuela's oil is particularly bad for the climate, that makes it less attractive for European oil companies with climate goals, Monaldi says.

 

Venezuela's neighbor is a rising oil star

Next door to Venezuela is Guyana — a country that recently discovered over 10 billion barrels of oil and is a key emerging player in the international oil industry.

Guyana's oil is lighter than Venezuela's, less polluting, and has lower taxes than Venezuela, Monaldi says. There's also no national oil company in Guyana, as there is in Venezuela.

"All that makes for Guyana to be one of the most attractive oil places in the world," Monaldi says.

While ExxonMobil is no longer in Venezuela, it is a major player in Guyana.

For years, Venezuela and Guyana have had a territorial dispute that has also been related to oil rights. Last March, Venezuelan vessels entered Guyanese territorial waters approaching offshore oil vessels belonging to ExxonMobil.

"Without a doubt, with a changing regime, Guyana should feel more secure," Monaldi says.

Lack of political stability could be a deal breaker 

Some increase in Venezuela's oil production could happen fairly quickly with more financial support and improved management, according to an analysis by Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy.

But Mahdavi says the Trump administration's plans to jumpstart the industry will be difficult. He notes that it took nearly two decades to revitalize Iraq's oil industry after the U.S. invasion, though corruption and mismanagement remain pervasive.

 And ultimately, notes Kepes, if it's unclear who is in charge in Venezuela, oil companies will have concerns about the long-term viability of their contracts. "No one's going to start investing on the ground in a place where there's no legal contract and viable permission to operate or if there's concerns about political stability and violence," he says.

 

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

The ‘sacred’ pledge that will power the relaunch of far-right militia Oath Keepers by Alexander Lowie

 

Share article

Stewart Rhodes, the founder of the Oath Keepers, a far-right militia, announced in November 2025 that he will relaunch the group after it disbanded following his prison sentence in 2023.

Rhodes was sentenced to 18 years in prison for seditious conspiracy and other crimes committed during the U.S. Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.

In January 2025, President Donald Trump granted clemency to the over 1,500 defendants convicted of crimes connected to the storming of the Capitol.

Trump did not pardon Rhodes – or some others found guilty of the most serious crimes on Jan. 6. He instead commuted Rhodes’ sentence to time served. Commutation only reduces the punishment for a crime, whereas a full pardon erases a conviction.

As a political anthropologist I study the Patriot movement, a collection of anti-government right-wing groups that include the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and Moms for Liberty. I specialize in alt-right beliefs, and I have interviewed people active in groups that participated in the Capitol riot.

Rhodes’ plans to relaunch the Oath Keepers, largely composed of current and former military veterans and law enforcement officers, is important because it will serve as an outlet for those who have felt lost since his imprisonment. The group claimed it had over 40,000 dues-paying members at the height of its membership during Barack Obama’s presidency. I believe that many of these people will return to the group, empowered by the lack of any substantial punishment resulting from the pardons for crimes committed on Jan. 6. 

 

In my interviews, I’ve found that military veterans are treated as privileged members of the Patriot movement. They are honored for their service and military training. And that’s why I believe many former Oath Keepers will rejoin the group – they are considered integral members.

Their oaths to serving the Constitution and the people of the United States are treated as sacred, binding members to an ideology that leads to action. This action includes supporting people in conflicts against federal agencies, organizing citizen-led disaster relief efforts, and protesting election results like on Jan. 6. The members’ strength results from their shared oath and the reverence they feel toward keeping it.

Who are the Oath Keepers?

Rhodes joined the Army after high school and served for three years before being honorably discharged after a parachuting accident in 1986. He then attended the University of Nevada and later graduated from Yale Law School in 2004. He founded the Oath Keepers in 2009.

Oath Keepers takes its name from the U.S military Oath of Enlistment, which states:

“I, , do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States …”

 

Informed by his law background, Rhodes places a particular emphasis on the part of the oath that states they will defend the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic.

He developed a legal theory that justifies ignoring what he refers to as “unlawful orders” after witnessing the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Following the natural disaster, local law enforcement was assigned the task of confiscating guns, many of which officers say were stolen or found in abandoned homes.

Rhodes was alarmed, believing that the Second Amendment rights of citizens were being violated. Because of this, he argued that people who had military or law enforcement backgrounds had a legal duty to refuse what the group considers unlawful orders, including any that violated constitutionally protected rights, such as the right to bear arms.

In the Oath Keepers’ philosophy, anyone who violates these rights are domestic enemies to the Constitution. And if you follow the orders, you’ve violated your oath.

Explaining the origin of the group on the right-wing website “The Gateway Pundit” in November 2025, Rhodes said: “… we were attacked out of the gate, labeled anti-government, which is absurd because we’re defending the Constitution that established the federal government. We were labeled anti-government extremists, all kinds of nonsense because the elites want blind obedience in the police and military.”

Rebuilding and restructuring

In 2022, the nonprofit whistleblower site Distributed Denial of Secrets leaked more than 38,000 names on the Oath Keepers’ membership list.

The Anti-Defamation League estimated that nearly 400 of the names were active law enforcement officers, and that over 100 were serving in the military. Some of these members were investigated by their workplaces but never disciplined for their involvement with the group.

Some members who were not military or law enforcement did lose their jobs over their affiliation. But they held government-related positions, such as a Wisconsin alderman who resigned after he was identified as a member.

This breach of privacy, paired with the dissolution of the organization after Rhodes’ sentencing, will help shape the group going forward.

In his interview with “The Gateway Pundit,” where he announced the group’s relaunch, Rhodes said: “I want to make it clear, like I said, my goal would be to make it more cancel-proof than before. We’ll have resilient, redundant IT that makes it really difficult to take down. … And I want to make sure I get – put people in charge and leadership everywhere in the country so that, you know, down the road, if I’m taken out again, that it can still live on under good leadership without me being there.”

There was a similar shift in organizational structure with the Proud Boys in 2018. That’s when their founder, Gavin McInnes, stepped away from the organization. His departure came after a group of Proud Boys members were involved in a fight with anti-fascists in New York

 

Prosecutors wanted to try the group as a gang. McInnes, therefore, distanced himself to support their defense that they weren’t in a gang or criminal organization. Ultimately, two of the members were sentenced to four years in prison for attempted gang assault charges.

Some Proud Boys members have told me they have since focused on creating local chapters, with in-person recruitment, that communicate on private messaging apps. They aim to protect themselves from legal classification as a gang. It also makes it harder for investigators or activist journalists to monitor them.

This is referred to as a cell style of organization, which is popular with insurgency groups. These groups are organized to rebel against authority and overthrow government structures. The cell organizational style does not have a robust hierarchy but instead produces smaller groups. They all adhere to the same ideology but may not be directly associated.

They may have a leader, but it’s often acknowledged that they are merely a figurehead, not someone giving direct orders. For the Proud Boys, this would be former leader Enrique Tarrio. Proud Boys members I’ve spoken to have referred to him as a “mascot” and not their leader.

Looking ahead

So what does the Rhodes interview indicate about the future of Oath Keepers?

Members will continue supporting Trump while also recruiting more retired military and law enforcement officers. They will create an organizational structure designed to outlive Rhodes. And based on my interactions with the far-right, I believe it’s likely they will create an organizational structure similar to that of the cell style for organizing.

Beyond that, they are going to try to own their IT, which includes hosting their websites and also using trusted online revenue generators.

This will likely provide added security, protecting their membership rolls while making it more difficult for law enforcement agencies to investigate them in the future.

'A large amount of weirdness': The long, strange success of the Grateful Dead by Greg McKevitt

 

The band performed their first concert on 4 December 1965. In 1981, their leader Jerry Garcia talked to the BBC about how they became superstars but "never sold out".

The Grateful Dead began life as kings of the 1960s West Coast psychedelic scene, yet they were untouched by glamour. Long after bad vibes and commercialism soured the hippy dream, their heady mix of lengthy improvised guitar jams and communal celebration remained defiantly unchanged, until the 1995 death of leader Jerry Garcia in rehab at the age of 53. While contemporaries such as the Rolling Stones and Jefferson Airplane adapted to shifting trends, the Dead remained essentially the same.

It was hardly a recipe for superstardom, yet when Forbes magazine listed the world's 40 highest-paid entertainers in 1990–91, the Grateful Dead ranked 20th, with an estimated $33 million – putting them within touching distance of pop sensation MC Hammer. What a long, strange trip it had been for a band who started out three decades earlier playing in San Francisco's Victorian ballrooms to soundtrack hallucinogenic drug experiments.

 With no obvious star performer and a fiercely non-commercial ethos, the Dead were a genuine underground band. Their success wasn't built on record sales – although in 1987 they scored an unlikely MTV hit with Touch of Grey, thanks to a video featuring life-size skeleton marionettes. Instead, they cultivated a devoted tribe of Deadheads who followed them from town to town in a travelling circus of hippiedom.

 

Garcia said in 1988: "To the kids today, the Grateful Dead represents America: the spirit of being able to go out and have an adventure." Fans gathered in venue car parks long before showtime for Shakedown Street, informal markets that sprung up and were named after the band's 1978 album. They never sold out, refusing corporate sponsorship and even encouraging the trading of bootleg tapes. They also prided themselves on ever-changing setlists, so devotees still pore over the nightly variations sparked by the band's unique chemistry.

We would come into a town and they wouldn't let us into the hotel, whether we had reservations or not – Jerry Garcia

In 1981, the BBC's Newsnight was on hand to witness the excitement of the faithful at the Dead's return to London for the first time in seven years, playing four epic nights at the Rainbow Theatre. Across the city in the Blitz nightclub, the New Romantic pop scene was in full swing, with bands such as Spandau Ballet reacting with dandyish flair to the ugly aesthetic of punk

 While Grateful Dead leader Jerry Garcia – described as "now an avuncular 38" by Newsnight’s Robin Denselow – could not have stood out more from these musicians, his band had also been forged in the white-hot fires of a subcultural phenomenon. In 1967, the so-called Summer of Love had seen thousands of hippies descend on San Francisco. The small suburb of Haight-Ashbury became the global epicentre of "flower power", and the Grateful Dead were its house band.

 Garcia told Denselow that the times might have changed but the scene remained just as vital all those years later. "[Haight-Ashbury's hippies] are still pretty much doing what they were doing then, but… the difference is now they have 15 years of experience under their belts and have gotten to be experts in what they do, just like we've gotten to be experts in what we do – sort of." He said that when the Grateful Dead first started out, the US was largely unchanged from the staid 1950s era: "A lot of times we would come into a town and they wouldn't let us into the hotel, whether we had reservations or not… As soon as they saw long hair and eccentricity of any sort, you know, that was it."

 

While they may have come in peace, it's easy to see how these wild-haired hippies' transgressive lifestyle might have alarmed the uninitiated. Indeed, the band's formation was inextricably linked to the glorification of taking LSD. The hallucinogenic drug was discovered in 1938 by Swiss chemist Albert Hofmann. When a few years later he accidentally ingested some of the drug through his fingertips, he experienced visions of what he described as. "fantastic pictures, extraordinary shapes with intense, kaleidoscopic play of colours". While Hofmann argued for decades that LSD could help treat mental illness, others envisaged very different applications for its potentially dangerous psychedelic properties.

The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test

In the early days of the Cold War, the CIA created a secret programme to research mind control. Known by the code name MK-Ultra, it funded experiments on unsuspecting patients, among them people in psychiatric institutions and prison inmates, using methods including administering psychedelic drugs, sensory deprivation and electroshock treatment. In 1960, CIA-funded researchers at the Menlo Park Hospital in California were paying students $40 a day to take LSD.

One volunteer was Ken Kesey, who would later write One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest. Awed by the hallucinogenic power of the still-legal drug, Kesey began to distribute it to his friends and in 1964, he assembled a string of like-minded people dubbed the Merry Pranksters and set off across the country in a brightly painted bus. The trip was chronicled by writer Tom Wolfe in his book The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test. A year later in California, he began staging a series of parties he called Acid Tests to promote the taking of LSD. The second event on 4 December in San Jose was where the Grateful Dead played their first gig. The band had played before as The Warlocks, but it turned out that there was another group with the same name, so Garcia's gang switched to the name by which they would be known for the next few decades.

 

Eight months later, the Dead first appeared on the BBC – not on a music show but on the current affairs programme Panorama. In an episode titled California 2000, reporter John Morgan explored San Francisco's psychedelic dance halls, where the "private world becomes public as strange colours and lights created out of oil, water and ketchup are bounced off walls and people".  As the band played The Mind Benders, a swirling organ-driven garage rocker, Morgan noted the aim was to "produce the circumstances of a psychiatric sensorium… new perceptions of reality created by an assault on the senses".

More like this:

• How 'shocking' musical Hair escaped UK censorship

• Why the teenage David Bowie was already a rebel

• The story of the first ever Glastonbury Festival

Garcia was already a fixture on the San Francisco music scene, having been in both folk and blues bands, but LSD was a whole new influence. Interviewed shortly before his death in 1995, he told the BBC: "Frequently with psychedelics, I couldn't talk to anybody. I couldn't make myself understood or understand others, but I could communicate with music." He described the band's early style as "R&B with a large amount of weirdness inserted in it". Improvision, "the first thing I learned in music", was at its heart. "All of a sudden we could be doing a simple R&B song and it would turn into a 20-minute thing," he said.

The band continued to attract new generations of followers, and their lengthy concerts encompassed a range of musical influences from bluegrass to jazz. For the Dead, playing live was everything. Bassist Phil Lesh told the BBC in 1993: "What the Grateful Dead has done is taken the old saw about building an audience and carried it to the absolute ultimate, because all we do is build our audience. I guess the original idea was to build an audience so we can sell records – we just built the audience and kept going back and playing to them."  

As Garcia told Newsnight: "What we're really interested in doing is communicating to minds." Guitarist Bob Weir added: "We learned to play our instruments better. We learn to play off of each other better. We learn to listen to each other better. And at this point, we can play more concisely. We can play more music with less notes." After 16 years of life on the road, Garcia was as committed as ever: "It's who we are. It's what we do with our lives, really."

 

Friday, December 26, 2025

Why is the Federal Reserve independent, and what does that mean in practice? by David Wessel

 What does “independence” mean?

The Federal Reserve was created by an act of Congress in 1913 and, since 1977, has been charged with promoting maximum employment and stable prices. In practice, independence means that the Fed can set interest rates without interference from Congress or the White House even if politicians are unhappy with Fed policy—and say so publicly. 

Congress could, of course, change the law, but no bill to alter the Fed’s mandate or governance has gone very far. That’s because members of Congress generally recognize that if they or the president were able to directly influence the setting of interest rates, higher inflation would be the likely outcome.

Central banks in nearly all major capitalist democracies are similarly insulated: Elected governments set the central bank’s mandate, but the central banks have the freedom to deploy their tools (primarily interest rates) to achieve that mandate. The rationale is that elected politicians will tend to favor lower interest rates now to boost the economy, but this comes at the expense of more inflation later, and that’s not in the best interests of the overall economy. Independent central bankers, the argument goes, can make unpopular decisions, such as raising interest rates, when circumstances demand. Academic research supports the case that economies with independent central banks tend to have lower—and less volatile—inflation rates.

 Here’s how Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, now at Brookings, put it in a 2010 speech: “Policymakers in a central bank subject to short-term political influence may face pressures to overstimulate the economy to achieve short-term output and employment gains that exceed the economy’s underlying potential. Such gains may be popular at first, and thus helpful in an election campaign, but they are not sustainable and soon evaporate, leaving behind only inflationary pressures that worsen the economy’s longer-term prospects. Thus, political interference in monetary policy can generate undesirable boom-bust cycles that ultimately lead to both a less stable economy and higher inflation…”

“To be clear,” he added, “I am by no means advocating unconditional independence for central banks. First, for its policy independence to be democratically legitimate, the central bank must be accountable to the public for its actions … [T]he goals of policy should be set by the government, not by the central bank itself; and the central bank must regularly demonstrate that it is appropriately pursuing its mandated goals. Demonstrating its fidelity to its mandate in turn requires that the central bank be transparent about its economic outlook and policy strategy.”

What authority does President Trump have to hire and fire members of the Federal Reserve Board?

A president can influence Fed policy mainly through his nomination of members of the Federal Reserve Board, subject to confirmation by the Senate. Jay Powell’s term as Fed chair expires in May 2026, but he could remain a member of the Board until January 2028. There is precedent for this: Marriner Eccles was replaced as Fed chair in 1948 by President Truman, but he continued to serve as a Fed governor until 1951. For more on the terms of Fed officials, read this Hutchins Center explainer.

The Federal Reserve Act says that Fed governors can be removed by the president before the expiration of their terms only “for cause.” In a 1935 case (Humphrey’s Executor v. United States), the Supreme Court ruled that President Franklin Delano Roosevelt could not fire a member of the Federal Trade Commission due to policy disagreements, because the law said commissioners could be removed only for “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office.” (FDR said FTC’s work could be “carried out most effectively with personnel of my own selection.”) The Supreme Court has distinguished between agencies, such as the Fed, that are overseen by multi-member boards, and those run by a single individual. In the latter, such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the court has said the president does have the power to fire the director before his or her term expires.

Powell has said that it is “not permitted under law” for the president to fire him and that he will not resign if Trump asks him to do so. President Trump has said that he doesn’t plan to fire him. But the Fed’s vice chair for (bank) supervision, Michael Barr, resigned that post, to avoid a legal showdown over whether the president could fire him. Barr remains a member of the Board.

Trump has tried to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, arguing that her alleged mortgage fraud is sufficient cause. She has not been formally charged with any wrongdoing and denies any.  Federal courts, including the Supreme Court, have allowed her to remain on the Board while the dispute is pending. Former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Janet Yellen, along with other former economic policy officials from Republican and Democratic administrations, advised the Supreme Court in an amicus brief that removing Cook from the Board immediately “would expose the Federal Reserve to political influences, thereby eroding public confidence in the Fed’s independence and jeopardizing the credibility and efficacy of U.S. monetary policy.”

In March 2025, a federal judge, citing Humphrey’s Executor, ruled that Trump could not legally fire Gwynne Wilcox as a member of the National Labor Relations Board because the law says the president can remove an NLRB member “upon notice and hearing, for neglect of duty or malfeasance in office, but for no other cause.” The Trump administration appealed to the Supreme Court. The Trump Justice Department has said that “for-cause removal provisions that apply to members of multi-member regulatory commissions are unconstitutional.” Added Solicitor General D. John Sauer: “The president should not be forced to delegate his executive power to agency heads who are demonstrably at odds with the administration’s policy objectives for a single day—much less for the months that it would likely take for the courts to resolve this litigation.”

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, in a footnote in a 2024 decision involving the financing of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, described the Federal Reserve Board as “a unique institution with a unique historical background … a special arrangement sanctioned by history.”  That suggests he is likely to side with the Fed should its independence or governance be challenged.

In a May 2025 order involving the president’s power to fire members of the National Labor Relations Board and the Merit Systems Protection Board, the Supreme Court echoed the Alito view that the Fed is different and reinforced expectations that that the president cannot fire Fed board members. “The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct history tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States,” the court said.

What about the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks?

Each of the 12 Federal Reserve banks has a nine-member, private-sector board of directors which appoints its president, subject to approval of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington. The presidents are appointed for a term of five years, all of which expire on the last day of February in years ending in 1 and 6 (that is, in 2026 and 2031). In December 2025, the Board renewed their terms through 2031.

At any one time, five of the 12 presidents serve alongside the seven Fed governors in Washington on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates. In the 1980s, Sen. John Melcher (D-Mont.) challenged this in federal court, arguing that because the five presidents are “officers” of the United States, they must be appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. In 1987, a federal appeals court rejected that argument, reasoning that Congress could change the law if it didn’t like it. The senator appealed. The Supreme Court didn’t take the case.

A 2019 opinion by the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel said that the Reserve Bank presidents are “inferior officers” under the constitution and therefore are subject to “plenary removal” by the Fed Board of Governors in Washington. The Board, however, has never fired any of the presidents, nor has this opinion ever been tested in litigation.

What are the legal constraints on the Fed’s ability to buy securities and lend money?

The Federal Reserve Act says the Fed can (and does) buy and sell U.S. government securities and mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by the federal government, as well as municipal bonds with a maturity of up to six months. Under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, the Fed has emergency lending authority which it can invoke only with the approval of the Secretary of the Treasury. The Fed used this authority extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic, offering loans to municipalities and corporations, among other things. (For details, see this Hutchins Center explainer.)

A major function of the Fed and other central banks is to lend to solvent banks when they need cash to meet depositors’ demands, provided the banks are solvent and can post collateral. These loans, by law, must be “secured to the satisfaction” of the Reserve Bank in whose district the borrower is headquartered. 

What about bank regulation?

The Fed is less independent in its role overseeing the safety and soundness of banks and other financial institutions than in monetary policy. It directly supervises and regulates nearly 3,800 bank holding companies, 700 state-chartered banks, and several financial market utilities, such as the Clearing House Payments Company, which operates a bank-to-bank payments system. The Fed shares some of these responsibilities with other federal agencies, including the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Some Fed regulations on banking can be overturned by Congress under the Congressional Review Act. The act, however, specifically exempts Fed “rules that concern monetary policy.”

In February 2025, Trump signed an executive order that, among other things, said that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) shall “review independent regulatory agencies’ obligations for consistency with the President’s policies and priorities.” The order explicitly excluded the Fed “in its conduct of monetary authority,” but said it applies to the Fed’s “supervision and regulation of financial institutions.”

The executive order also said that OMB can adjust agencies’ “apportionments” to prohibit them from “expending appropriations on particular activities, functions, projects, or objects, so long as such restrictions are consistent with law.” (In OMB parlance, “apportionment” is a legally binding, OMB-approved “plan to use budgetary resources” consistent with congressional appropriations.)

It is not clear if or how that applies to the Fed’s supervisory and regulatory operations. In contrast to most other arms of the federal government, Congress does not decide how much the Fed spends on its operations. The Fed’s income comes primarily from the interest it earns on government securities it buys in the secondary market and, when its revenue exceeds its expenses, it turns the surplus over to the Treasury.