One of the many strategies that could be used to confuse and delay the results of the 2024 election is the refusal to certify elections, particularly at the county level. We have already seen this tried in places like Cochise County, Arizona in 2022 and Washoe County, Nevada in 2024, and similar efforts seem to be percolating now in counties across the nation. It failed in those places and elsewhere but may be tried again in November. Counting the votes is a ministerial duty and not one that involves discretion by county election officials as we explained in the first essay in this series. Nonetheless, the election subversion movement has seized on this strategy as a vehicle to attempt to sabotage results or confidence in them, to sow chaos or simply to vent spleen.
In this essay, we examine the 50 counties across the seven swing states that pose the highest risk of attempting non-certification in November, however futile. In Section I we provide a table grouping them in four categories based on the degree of risk of attempted non-certification: high concern (Tier 1), medium concern (Tier 2), concern (Tier 3), and worth watching (Tier 4). In Section II, we offer a more detailed discussion of the 15 high- and medium- concern counties. In Section III, we offer state-by-state maps visualizing the location of these counties.
To rank risk, we primarily considered county-by-county factors, including whether there is a recent history of non-certification, whether the county election officials currently on the board have a record of voting against certification, and whether these officials form the majority of the county election body.1
We also took into account state-level developments that directly impact the county-level process. For example, Michigan counties were weighted relatively lower risk than those in other states following Senate Bill 529, which went into effect on February 13, 2024. It clarifies that certification is a ministerial, clerical, and nondiscretionary duty. It also states that the board must canvass all votes. Georgia counties, on the other hand, were weighted relatively higher risk due to a recent slew of proposed changes by the State Election Board which could undermine the certification process—a number of which are now facing litigation challenges (and have been struck down, though appeals are expected).
For an overview of the county certification process in general, see the first essay in this series. In this essay, we ordered counties in the chart within each category alphabetically; given the degree of uncertainty associated with predicted future events, rankings within each category are uncertain. Links to each county board’s website are included.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-counties-that-may-try-not-to-certify-the-2024-election/
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